Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Ann Arbor, MI MSA — October 2026
Ann Arbor's tight jobless rate hides a shrinking labor pool.
Ann Arbor unemployment held at 3.8% against Michigan's 5.0%, even as the state's labor force shrank by 158,000 over the past year and participation fell to 58.5%.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Ann Arbor unemployment rate: 3.8% — vs 5.0% Michigan, 4.1% U.S. (Sept/Aug 2026)
- Michigan labor force change: -158,000 — Year-over-year decline statewide
- Michigan labor force participation: 58.5% — vs 61.8% national rate
- Ann Arbor employment swing: -2.3% — April 2026, largest monthly drop among MI metros
Key takeaways
Low unemployment may mask a shrinking labor pool.
Ann Arbor's 3.8% rate looks favorable against Michigan's 5.0%, but the state's labor force fell by 26,000 in September and 158,000 over the year. A stable jobless rate built on fewer participants reads differently for anyone gauging the metro's underlying capacity.
University anchors continue to steady the local base.
Higher education and public institutions -- the University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University, Washtenaw Community College -- continue to underpin local government employment even as April's broader metro employment dropped 2.3%, the largest monthly decline among Michigan metros. That contrast suggests resilience is concentrated in a few large, stable employers, with less strength spread across the private sector.
Skilled trades pay is climbing faster than most other roles.
Construction laborer pay rose significantly locally ($47,840, well above the $40,727 national figure) and HVAC technician pay is also up significantly ($72,500). Sustained advertised-pay gains in these categories point to tightening capacity in trades tied to local construction and infrastructure activity, a signal worth tracking for anyone planning capital projects.
Office and marketing pay softness diverges from the trades story.
Administrative assistant, marketing specialist and operations manager pay all moved down locally even as national figures held flat or rose, a pattern that appears to reflect softer demand in Ann Arbor's professional-services layer. Combined with the state's reported declines in services and professional/business services employment, this suggests uneven momentum across the metro's job mix.
Median advertised pay by role — Ann Arbor, MI MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $27,081 | $31,200 | $33,280 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $25,694 | $30,821 | $32,905 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,887 | $35,360 | $37,440 | Moderate increase | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $62,233 | $81,920 | $93,600 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,225 | $35,713 | $40,560 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $37,440 | $47,840 | $49,920 | Significant increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $59,450 | $76,804 | $87,360 | Stable | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $34,372 | $38,480 | $40,040 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,280 | $41,600 | $44,720 | Significant increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $29,385 | $32,313 | $32,906 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $34,320 | $38,480 | $41,080 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $36,638 | $44,643 | $47,394 | Moderate decline | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $57,200 | $72,500 | $76,513 | Significant increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $85,234 | $108,062 | $110,996 | Stable | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $110,720 | $150,000 | $163,577 | Significant increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $94,842 | $110,732 | $125,850 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $59,298 | $70,652 | $81,000 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,287 | $88,868 | $90,000 | Significant increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $55,000 | $71,500 | $76,177 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $48,880 | $56,318 | $72,822 | Significant decline | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $60,000 | $75,349 | $92,184 | Moderate decline | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $35,395 | $46,593 | $56,226 | Moderate decline | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $70,034 | $91,744 | $105,600 | Moderate increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $43,753 | $65,000 | $65,000 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $80,406 | $95,685 | $109,423 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $56,160 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $93,226 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $34,185 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $46,800 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Information | $124,775 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $53,591 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $71,158 | Stable | Moderate increase |
| Education & Health Services | $58,240 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $34,320 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $67,862 | Stable | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Ann Arbor's unemployment rate held at 3.8% in August, roughly a point below Michigan's 5.0% statewide rate, with public-sector stability anchored by the University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University and Washtenaw Community College offsetting softer months earlier this year, including an April employment decline of 2.3%, the steepest among Michigan metros. Labor force participation remains the more consequential story: Michigan's labor force contracted by 26,000 in September and 158,000 over the past year, a trend consistent with national dynamics -- slower immigration and rising retirements -- that appears to be constraining labor supply even as local unemployment looks tight by comparison.
What it means
Flat unemployment alongside a shrinking statewide labor force suggests Ann Arbor's tight-looking numbers may reflect fewer people in the labor market, a distinction that matters for anyone reading local unemployment as a simple health gauge. For commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing, the metro's university-anchored public-sector base offers more predictability than the services and professional sectors showing weakness statewide, while advertised pay gains concentrated in construction, HVAC and customer service point to where cost and capacity pressure is building. Consider reviewing labor force participation trends alongside unemployment data when assessing whether current conditions reflect expanding opportunity or tightening supply.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Michigan's September unemployment data showed declines across all 18 labor market areas, a pattern that may extend into Ann Arbor's October reading as seasonal education-sector hiring settles in. Confirmation would support a narrative of stabilizing conditions beyond a one-off improvement.
Emerging pressure point: Navitas Systems' layoffs across its three Ann Arbor-area locations, running through October 31, are a local test of how quickly released workers re-enter the area's job-ad activity. Watch whether manufacturing and defense-adjacent job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), absorb that supply in November data.
Early indicator: Construction laborer and HVAC pay have moved up significantly while office and marketing roles have softened; a continuation of that divergence over the next two months would reinforce a two-speed local economy worth flagging for commerce planning.
Potential inflection point: Michigan's labor force participation rate has fallen to 58.5%, well below the national 61.8%. Any reversal, or further decline, in coming months will shape how local economists read Ann Arbor's comparatively low unemployment rate going into 2027 planning cycles.
Sources
- Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget — Ann Arbor unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8% July-August 2026
- Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget — Ann Arbor MSA saw largest over-the-month employment decline in Michigan in April 2026
- Michigan Center for Data & Analytics — Michigan labor force declined 26,000 in September, 158,000 over the year
- Michigan Center for Data & Analytics — Michigan labor force participation rate fell to 58.5%
- Upjohn Institute Michigan Layoff Tracker — Navitas Systems Inc. layoffs across three Ann Arbor locations, July-October 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — National labor force participation rate at 61.8%
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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