Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Appleton, WI MSA — October 2026
Appleton's low jobless rate hides a wage and sector split.
Appleton's unemployment rate sits near 3.0%, well below the 4.1% national rate, even as Wisconsin posted the nation's steepest real wage decline at -5.1% year-over-year.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Appleton MSA unemployment: 3.0% — Aug 2026, vs 4.1% national rate
- Wisconsin real wage growth: -5.1% — Steepest decline of any US state, YoY Sep 2026
- Appleton manufacturing employment: +1.2% — YoY Aug 2026, vs WI mfg -4% below pre-pandemic
- AI displacement risk ranking: 76/100 — Rank #35 of 393 US metros; retail-driven
Key takeaways
Low unemployment is coexisting with sector contraction.
Appleton's 3.0% unemployment rate sits well below the national average, yet trade, transportation and utilities fell 3.2% and leisure and hospitality fell 3.9% year-over-year through August. A tight headline rate can obscure uneven conditions across the metro's commercial base, and leaders should watch sector-level data alongside the topline number.
Wisconsin's real wage erosion is the steepest in the nation.
State wages fell 5.1% year-over-year in real terms from September 2025 to September 2026, the largest drop of any state, even as the median nominal wage hit a record $26.17 per hour. For a metro economy built on consumer-facing retail and hospitality, that erosion signals constrained household spending power regardless of job availability.
Manufacturing resilience locally diverges from the statewide trend.
Appleton manufacturing employment grew 1.2% year-over-year even as Wisconsin's statewide manufacturing sector sits 4% below pre-pandemic levels and forecasts point to further declines by October. That local divergence is worth tracking as a potential indicator of metro-specific industrial strength that sets Appleton apart from broader state trends.
Retail carries elevated structural exposure to automation.
Appleton's AI displacement risk score of 76 out of 100 ranks it #35 among 393 US metros, with retail identified as the primary driver — a notable signal given retail's already-declining advertised pay locally ($30,160, trending down). Economic development planning may benefit from treating retail transition as a multi-year structural theme that extends beyond current retail softness.
Median advertised pay by role — Appleton, WI MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $23,920 | $30,160 | $34,195 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $25,150 | $30,160 | $32,240 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $33,273 | $39,344 | $41,600 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,200 | $75,876 | $87,500 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,726 | $36,046 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $37,440 | $43,680 | $46,842 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $62,022 | $72,486 | $76,750 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $35,360 | $40,040 | $44,158 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,678 | $39,520 | $45,760 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $26,968 | $29,876 | $33,987 | Moderate decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $39,065 | $42,640 | $45,760 | Moderate decline | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $36,391 | $41,600 | $44,928 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $61,360 | $69,680 | $69,689 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $83,552 | $96,720 | $106,184 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $85,874 | $130,944 | $149,484 | Significant increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $83,605 | $126,566 | $131,337 | Significant increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $56,654 | $64,518 | $69,745 | Moderate decline | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $68,489 | $83,065 | $85,047 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $55,851 | $76,424 | $77,744 | Moderate increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $49,734 | $62,500 | $70,450 | Significant increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $70,000 | $85,176 | $88,005 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $31,200 | $39,135 | $50,700 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $61,716 | $86,500 | $110,000 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $66,387 | $80,000 | $85,223 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $78,842 | $81,526 | $90,832 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $65,000 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $60,500 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $35,325 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $49,920 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $74,650 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $51,508 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $57,200 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $61,360 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $33,280 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Government | $64,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Appleton's unemployment rate held near 3.0% in August 2026, roughly a full point below the national 4.1% rate, even as manufacturing employment growth of 1.2% year-over-year coexisted with declines in trade, transportation and utilities (-3.2%) and leisure and hospitality (-3.9%). Statewide, job creation has stalled — Wisconsin's job count remains below its November 2024 peak, and forecasts point to manufacturing and retail employment both running below year-ago levels by October, suggesting Appleton's tight local unemployment rate may mask softening demand beneath the surface.
What it means
Appleton's low headline unemployment rate signals a labor market still favorable for workers, but sector divergence — manufacturing holding up while trade and hospitality contract — points to uneven momentum that commerce leaders should factor into any read on local consumer and business spending capacity. Wisconsin's -5.1% year-over-year real wage decline, the steepest of any state, suggests household purchasing power in the metro is under pressure even where nominal pay has risen, a dynamic that bears directly on retail sales forecasts, local tax revenue projections and public investment timing. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders should weigh consumer spending forecasts together with wage-versus-inflation data as the fuller measure of business climate, beyond the unemployment rate alone.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: October's Appleton MSA unemployment figure has not yet been released; watch whether it holds near August's 3.0% or moves toward the 3.1%-3.3% range seen earlier in 2026, which would suggest the metro's labor tightness is loosening in step with statewide softening.
Emerging pressure point: Trade, transportation/utilities and leisure/hospitality are contracting locally while Wisconsin forecasts project retail employment 0.9% below year-ago levels by October. Watch whether these sectors stabilize or continue declining, since both are closely tied to metro consumer spending and foot traffic.
Early indicator: H-1B certified applications in Appleton fell 20% in FY2026 Q1, a small-sample but directional signal of reduced specialized-skill inflow. Government economists and workforce boards may want to track whether this compounds existing labor force participation constraints in technical occupations.
Potential inflection point: Wisconsin's labor force participation rate of 64.9% remains well above the national 61.8%, but stalled statewide job creation raises the question of whether participation holds or starts to erode as available positions plateau. A shift here would matter directly for regional workforce planning and economic development messaging.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics / Wisconsin DWD — Appleton MSA unemployment rate and sector employment trends, August 2026
- Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development — Wisconsin statewide job count below November 2024 peak
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Wisconsin's -5.1% real wage decline, steepest among US states
- Metro AI exposure analysis — Appleton AI displacement risk score of 76/100, rank #35 of 393 metros
- H1BScope — H-1B certified applications in Appleton down 20% FY2026 Q1
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Wisconsin labor force participation rate of 64.9% vs national 61.8%
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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