Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA — October 2026
Austin unemployment hits 3.7% as Texas labor supply stalls
Austin-Round Rock's unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in September, a full 0.7 points below the statewide 4.4%, even as Texas labor force growth nearly flattened to just 3,600 net new participants over the year.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 3.7% — Down from 3.9% in August; vs 4.4% statewide
- Metro job growth, year-over-year: 1.2% — vs 1.0% Texas, 0.3% national
- Texas labor force growth, 12 months: 3,600 — Net new participants statewide, a near-stall
- Metro average earnings growth, YTD: 6% — $35.82 to $37.91 through August 2026
Key takeaways
Austin's unemployment edge over Texas is widening.
A 3.7% metro rate against a 4.4% statewide figure represents a 0.7-point gap, up from narrower spreads earlier in the year. That gap is consistent with Austin's economy absorbing labor better than the rest of the state even as statewide labor force growth has nearly flattened.
Wage gains are concentrating in technical and professional work.
Software Engineer pay rose to a $158,734 metro median, above the national figure, while Operations Manager ($75,797) and Warehouse Manager ($70,873) pay fell significantly. That split suggests Austin's wage momentum is being carried by a narrower set of occupations than the metro's overall earnings growth figure implies.
Leisure and hospitality losses deserve monitoring as a consumer-spending signal.
The sector shed roughly 1,200 positions, nearly 1% of its base, even as the broader metro economy added jobs. Hospitality softness alongside real wage erosion nationally (median earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth) may point to cooling discretionary spending capacity among metro households.
Texas's stalled labor force growth is a structural constraint.
The state added just 15,800 workers to its labor force in September and only 3,600 over the full year, a trend the Dallas Fed links partly to reduced immigrant labor supply. Austin's relative outperformance may not insulate it if the statewide pipeline that has long fed the metro's workforce continues to shrink.
Median advertised pay by role — Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $27,019 | $33,280 | $36,616 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,238 | $31,200 | $33,280 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $33,063 | $37,440 | $39,520 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $54,417 | $76,000 | $84,968 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,882 | $36,958 | $42,024 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,360 | $38,480 | $41,600 | Moderate decline | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $59,169 | $74,728 | $82,121 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,280 | $39,520 | $42,050 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,344 | $38,925 | $42,640 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $29,482 | $33,706 | $36,189 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $34,800 | $40,560 | $43,339 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $35,360 | $43,573 | $48,510 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $61,784 | $72,800 | $81,012 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $81,274 | $95,784 | $103,026 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $118,370 | $158,734 | $176,567 | Moderate increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $100,000 | $143,500 | $158,893 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $59,214 | $71,053 | $81,115 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $74,465 | $94,187 | $102,750 | Moderate increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $57,500 | $75,920 | $83,567 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $49,619 | $62,349 | $72,802 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $65,970 | $75,797 | $84,370 | Significant decline | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $38,480 | $58,577 | $63,466 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $68,776 | $99,688 | $117,888 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $48,368 | $70,873 | $85,260 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $76,700 | $91,835 | $105,028 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $76,571 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Manufacturing | $129,033 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $50,669 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $62,058 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Information | $133,439 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $100,712 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $94,544 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $72,800 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $35,880 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $64,168 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos unemployment fell to 3.7% in September from 3.9% in August, holding well below both the Texas rate of 4.4% and the national rate of 4.1%, even as statewide labor force growth has nearly stalled at just 3,600 net new participants over the past year. Metro job growth of 1.2% year-over-year outpaces the state and national rate, but losses concentrated in leisure/hospitality (-1,200) and other services (-800) alongside average earnings up 6% over the first eight months of 2026 point to a labor market tightening unevenly across sectors.
What it means
Sub-4% unemployment paired with stalling statewide labor force growth signals that Austin's labor supply advantage over peer metros is narrowing even as demand holds, a dynamic economic development officials and commerce leaders should track when courting relocations that assume ready local talent availability. Wage gains concentrated in STEM-adjacent and technical fields (Austin ranks fourth nationally among large metros for STEM job share) alongside flat-to-declining advertised pay in operations and warehouse management roles suggest the metro's growth is increasingly selective, concentrated in specific sectors rather than spread evenly across the economy. Commerce leaders should evaluate whether current expansion plans depend on sectors showing this divergence before treating headline unemployment figures as a uniform green light.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Dallas Fed's downgraded 2026 Texas job growth forecast (0.9%, down from 2.0%) implies statewide deceleration that could eventually pressure Austin's above-trend pace. Commerce leaders tracking expansion timelines should watch whether October-November data shows the metro continuing to diverge from the state or converging toward it.
Emerging pressure point: Hospitality and other-services job losses, if they persist into November's data, would be a second consecutive month of softness in consumer-facing sectors. That pattern is worth cross-referencing against local retail and dining activity reports before drawing conclusions about broader consumer demand.
Early indicator: Texas's near-zero labor force growth, combined with reduced immigrant labor supply cited by the Dallas Fed, raises the question of whether Austin's historically strong in-migration of workers is slowing. Regional economic development bodies should watch upcoming Census and TWC migration data for early signs.
Potential inflection point: National real wage erosion (nominal gains of 3.6% against inflation effects leaving real growth near zero) has not yet shown up clearly in Austin's 6% earnings gain, but the gap bears watching as CPI data updates. A convergence toward the national pattern would signal softening household purchasing power even amid low local unemployment.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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