Labor Market Pulse · Restaurant Industry · October 2026
Restaurant Industry Labor Market Report: Billings, MT MSA — October 2026
Billings restaurant pay splits: management up, front-line flat.
Billings GM pay climbed to a $70,354 metro median against a flat national $59,724, even as county unemployment held at 3.1% and Montana's no-tip-credit floor heads to $11.20 in January.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Yellowstone County unemployment: 3.1% — vs. 4.2% national rate, August 2026
- Montana tipped minimum wage: $10.85/hr — Rising to $11.20 Jan. 1, 2027; no tip credit allowed
- Montana restaurants reporting visitor declines: 44% — vs. 31% reporting increases, 2025
- Montana restaurant/accommodation payroll change: -1,300 jobs — Statewide, September 2026, concentrated w/ finance sector
Key takeaways
Management pay is moving, line-level pay is not.
Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay rose to a metro median of $70,354 against a stable national $59,724, and Assistant Manager pay climbed to $50,000 versus $39,211 nationally — both significant local increases. Line Cook and Server pay sat flat, which may signal Billings operators are concentrating retention spend where turnover is costliest to replace, with less spend spread broadly across the crew.
Montana's no-tip-credit law widens the cost gap with tip-credit states.
DOL's October repeal of the 80/20 rule lowers side-work wage exposure in federal tip-credit states like Texas and Louisiana, but Montana's flat $10.85 tipped minimum (rising to $11.20 in January) means Billings operators get no relief from that policy shift. Front-of-house labor cost as a share of revenue stays structurally fixed here regardless of federal guidance changes.
Back-of-house scarcity is a demand problem.
Line Cook advertised pay in Billings ($36,400) sits essentially flat and slightly below the national median ($37,421), even as BLS projects 12% growth in cook demand through 2035 against 2% for servers. Flat pay alongside projected scarcity suggests sourcing and scheduling flexibility may be the more immediate lever for BOH retention.
Soft visitor volume gives operators room to recalibrate seasonal staffing.
44% of Montana restaurants reported declining visitor volume in 2025 versus 31% reporting gains, and a 3.1% county unemployment rate means candidate supply isn't the binding constraint it was in prior years. Current conditions may create an opportunity to right-size seasonal staffing plans without the acute fill-rate pressure of a tighter labor market.
Median advertised pay by role — Billings, MT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assistant Restaurant Manager | $35,873 | $50,000 | $50,960 | Significant increase | $39,211 |
| Catering Manager * | $41,211 | $55,920 | $56,603 | Stable | $50,076 |
| Crew | $26,520 | $32,760 | $34,320 | Stable | $30,066 |
| Line Cook | $32,240 | $36,400 | $37,440 | Stable | $37,421 |
| Restaurant Manager/General Manager | $50,960 | $70,354 | $75,000 | Significant increase | $59,724 |
| Server | $22,858 | $30,920 | $34,118 | Stable | $35,024 |
| Shift Manager | $33,280 | $37,960 | $40,560 | Moderate increase | $33,024 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Local market conditions
Yellowstone County's unemployment rate held at 3.1% in August, roughly half the national 4.2% rate, signaling a labor pool that remains structurally tight even as statewide restaurant payrolls contracted in September alongside finance and insurance job losses. Montana's elimination of tip credit requirements — tipped employees must still earn the full $10.85 base, rising to $11.20 on January 1, 2027 — keeps front-of-house labor costs structurally higher in Billings than in federal-tip-credit states, even as the DOL's October repeal of the 80/20 rule reduces side-work wage exposure elsewhere in the country.
What it means
Billings operators face a cost structure where front-of-house base pay is fixed by state law regardless of tipped income, while back-of-house roles compete against a statewide cook shortage that BLS projects will intensify through 2035 (12% growth in demand vs. 2% for servers). Metro advertised pay for Restaurant Manager/General Manager ($70,354) and Assistant Manager ($50,000) roles moved up significantly this year, suggesting operators are concentrating retention investment at the management layer. Consider evaluating whether labor cost increases are being absorbed through management compensation alone or whether back-of-house wage compression is building a retention risk that current data hasn't yet surfaced.
Looking ahead
Policy deadline: Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, a 3.2% floor increase that compounds on top of the state's no-tip-credit structure. Operators should model Q1 2027 labor cost against current advertised pay levels now, ahead of the increase taking effect.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide restaurant and accommodation payrolls contracted in September alongside finance and insurance — a sector pairing that doesn't typically move together, which may suggest broader seasonal softening. Watch whether October's county-level release (due with the November 20 state report) confirms a trend or a one-month dip.
Worth watching: Management-tier advertised pay (GM, Assistant Manager) has moved up significantly in Billings while line-level pay stays flat — a divergence that, if sustained, could widen internal pay compression between hourly and salaried staff. Track whether this gap shows up in exit interviews or shift-lead turnover over the next two months.
Early indicator: National tipped-wage policy is fragmenting by state and city — Flagstaff's full $18.35 minimum with no tip credit versus the 80/20 rule repeal in Texas and Louisiana. Montana already sits at the high-regulation end of that spectrum; watch for any legislative signal ahead of the 2027 session that could accelerate the base rate further.
Sources
- USA Facts/Bureau of Labor Statistics — Yellowstone County unemployment rate at 3.1% in August 2026
- Montana Department of Labor and Industry — Montana tipped minimum wage rules and January 2027 increase to $11.20
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% through 2035 vs. 2% for servers
- U.S. Department of Labor — DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026
- Montana Lodging and Tourism Association — 44% of Montana restaurants reported visitor volume decline in 2025
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Montana restaurant/food service payrolls fell alongside finance sector in September
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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