Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Burlington-South Burlington, VT MSA — September 2026
Burlington's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.
Chittenden County unemployment sits near 2.3%, yet county employment fell 1.8% year-over-year and average weekly wages rose to $1,521, a combination suggesting labor-force exits rather than broad-based hiring strength.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Chittenden County employment change: -1.8% — Year-over-year through March 2026, 345th of 371 large U.S. counties
- Chittenden County unemployment rate: 2.3% — September 2026, vs. Vermont statewide 2.5-2.6%
- Chittenden County average weekly wage: $1,521 — Up 3.4% YoY Q1 2026, ranks 121st nationally
- State/local government employment: -600 / -400 jobs — State down 3.2%, local down 1.3% in Vermont
Key takeaways
Tight unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.
Chittenden County's unemployment rate near 2.3-2.6% looks healthy in isolation, but county employment actually fell 1.8% year-over-year, a sign that people are leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs elsewhere. That distinction matters for any economic development pitch built on labor availability.
Public-sector contraction is a quiet drag on local momentum.
State government employment dropped 3.2% and local government 1.3% even as the broader economy held steady, narrowing the public payroll base that typically stabilizes a metro through downturns. Commerce leaders should treat public-sector hiring as a watch item rather than an assumed stabilizer this cycle.
Wage gains are real but not keeping pace nationally.
Chittenden County average weekly wages rose 3.4% to $1,521 in Q1 2026, outpacing Vermont's statewide 3.0% gain, yet the county still ranks only 121st nationally on wage growth. Local purchasing power is improving in absolute terms but losing ground relative to peer metros nationally.
Housing scarcity is now a labor-supply constraint, not just an affordability story.
Chittenden County's July 2026 economic review flags workforce and middle-income housing shortages as the region's most pressing issue, with meaningful new supply not expected until 2027-28. Any employer expansion plan premised on attracting outside workers runs into a housing ceiling before it runs into a wage ceiling.
Median advertised pay by role — Burlington-South Burlington, VT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $31,200 | $35,360 | $38,090 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $31,575 | $35,360 | $36,920 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $36,992 | $41,600 | $44,645 | Moderate increase | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,240 | $71,740 | $79,827 | Moderate increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $33,818 | $38,691 | $47,086 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $44,720 | $50,000 | $63,440 | Moderate decline | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $62,400 | $72,415 | $75,000 | Moderate increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $36,416 | $44,720 | $45,526 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $35,742 | $39,011 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $33,828 | $42,816 | $46,030 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $38,557 | $48,594 | $57,200 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $41,600 | $48,880 | $52,000 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $77,135 | $87,931 | $91,052 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $91,003 | $109,595 | $122,790 | Stable | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $94,240 | $133,349 | $147,246 | Significant increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $97,897 | $124,064 | $136,982 | Significant increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $60,000 | $75,000 | $88,800 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,500 | $83,357 | $92,500 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $56,897 | $72,500 | $74,462 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $54,080 | $67,080 | $75,426 | Moderate decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $59,500 | $59,500 | $59,500 | No data | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $44,242 | $62,446 | $72,000 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $66,288 | $89,635 | $102,692 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | — | — | — | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $77,374 | $96,500 | $110,000 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $55,120 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $61,027 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $38,159 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $47,320 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $74,251 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $70,500 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $68,130 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $80,570 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $35,360 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $68,077 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Chittenden County employment fell 1.8% year-over-year through March 2026, ranking among the weakest-performing large counties nationally even as the unemployment rate held near 2.3-2.6%, a combination consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than losing jobs to layoffs. Vermont's statewide labor force contraction, aging demographics, and a persistent housing shortage appear to be constraining labor supply even as advertised wages in some metro occupations continue rising faster than national benchmarks, a signature of a supply-starved rather than demand-starved local economy.
What it means
Low unemployment paired with shrinking employment counts signals a metro economy constrained by worker availability, not by business demand, which changes the calculus for commerce leaders weighing local expansion versus relocation or automation investment. Public-sector payroll contraction at the state and local level (-600 state jobs, -400 local government jobs) suggests reduced public spending capacity even as healthcare and construction show relative resilience, a divergence worth factoring into any assessment of the metro's near-term tax base and civic investment capacity. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders should weigh housing supply and labor-force participation trends as seriously as wage data when evaluating the region's capacity to support new investment or expansion.
Looking ahead
Potential inflection point: UVM Health Network layoffs announced earlier in 2026 will not register in claims data until October, following a June WARN notice for 142 workers. Watch whether this shows up as a one-time adjustment or the start of a broader healthcare-sector pullback in a metro where healthcare is a primary employment anchor.
Emerging pressure point: Three Franklin County dairy and food manufacturers announced mass layoffs in Q2 2026, and manufacturing already accounts for 22% of statewide UI claims despite shrinking as a share of the economy. A continued manufacturing contraction would compound the labor-force exits already visible in Chittenden County data.
Early indicator: Vermont's November ballot includes a Right to Collective Bargaining Amendment with 65% polling support as of September, a policy question with direct implications for public-sector labor costs and negotiation dynamics across the metro's hospitals, schools, and municipalities.
Worth watching: National nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to July and August, and real wages are no longer outpacing inflation nationally. A continued national slowdown would test whether Burlington's tight labor market reflects durable local strength or simply a smaller, aging labor pool insulated from national demand signals.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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