Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA — October 2026
Chattanooga job growth forecast cut to near-zero despite low unemployment.
UTC's fall forecast projects just 1,100 net new jobs metro-wide for 2026, even as unemployment holds at 3.3% and manufacturing has shed roughly 2,200 positions since mid-2024.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- 2026 metro job growth forecast: 1,100 jobs — Sharply down from earlier 2026 UTC projections
- Chattanooga MSA unemployment: 3.3% — vs 3.4% TN, 4.1% US (July/Sept 2026)
- Manufacturing job losses (metro): -2,200 jobs — Since mid-2024 slowdown, per UTC CRER
- Tennessee WARN activity: 6,603 workers — 49 notices statewide through Oct. 20, 2026
Key takeaways
Low unemployment is masking a growth slowdown.
UTC's fall forecast cut projected 2026 job growth to a net 1,100 positions even as the unemployment rate held at 3.3% in July. That gap suggests the rate reflects a shrinking or exiting labor pool as much as it reflects hiring strength, a distinction that matters for anyone citing unemployment as a standalone growth indicator.
Manufacturing softness lines up with the national tariff-uncertainty story.
Local manufacturing employment is down about 2,200 jobs since mid-2024, consistent with the UTC forecast's explicit citation of tariff uncertainty and higher interest rates as drags on the sector. Construction labor pay (up significantly, $39,520 median) and electrician pay (up significantly, $66,184) are rising even as broader manufacturing contracts, pointing to uneven sector-level cost and capacity pressure across the metro.
Healthcare and skilled trades are carrying the metro's wage momentum.
Registered nurse pay is up moderately to $89,372 and HVAC technician pay up moderately to $60,452, both outpacing the metro's flatter categories like customer service ($36,234, stable) and office administration ($37,440, stable). Sustained advertised-wage growth in these lanes, against a backdrop of UTC's downgraded job forecast, signals where metro economic resilience is concentrated.
T-Mobile's reduction is a single data point; watch for pattern confirmation.
A single 200-worker layoff doesn't establish a sector trend, but it follows the same timing as the UTC forecast downgrade and national information-sector job losses (-23,000 in September per BLS). Commerce leaders should watch whether additional WARN filings emerge locally before treating this as an isolated event.
Median advertised pay by role — Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,800 | $27,040 | $30,846 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $21,751 | $25,118 | $27,040 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,068 | $33,861 | $35,880 | Moderate decline | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $54,080 | $79,300 | $90,000 | Moderate increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,120 | $33,280 | $37,440 | Moderate increase | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,962 | $39,520 | $43,597 | Significant increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $56,870 | $66,184 | $70,720 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,764 | $37,846 | $39,187 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $31,493 | $36,234 | $40,560 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $25,636 | $33,280 | $35,880 | Moderate increase | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $31,014 | $34,077 | $35,360 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,679 | $37,440 | $41,649 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $52,906 | $60,452 | $64,667 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $76,368 | $89,372 | $97,243 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $80,784 | $111,995 | $136,241 | Moderate increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $85,389 | $117,753 | $123,874 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $57,564 | $71,731 | $72,297 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $66,084 | $87,318 | $94,429 | Significant increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $47,574 | $64,466 | $80,000 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $40,463 | $51,585 | $56,517 | Moderate increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $66,138 | $72,500 | $77,933 | Stable | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $32,240 | $50,000 | $55,500 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $50,749 | $72,244 | $90,000 | Stable | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $50,422 | $63,496 | $68,685 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $75,931 | $93,482 | $107,395 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $47,492 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Manufacturing | $63,451 | Significant increase | Moderate decline |
| Retail Trade | $35,290 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $65,749 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $70,251 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Financial Activities | $69,561 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $59,280 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Education & Health Services | $72,145 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $29,737 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $65,705 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Chattanooga's metro economy is cooling at the edges while remaining structurally tight: the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga's fall forecast now projects a net gain of only 1,100 jobs for all of 2026, down sharply from earlier estimates, with manufacturing down roughly 2,200 jobs and professional/business services down about 1,200 since the slowdown began in mid-2024. Healthcare and education continue to offset those losses with roughly 1,700 added positions, and the metro's 3.3% July unemployment rate still runs below both the Tennessee (3.4%) and national (4.1%) rates, suggesting a local economy absorbing sector-specific contraction without broad labor-market slack.
What it means
Divergence between a low headline unemployment rate and a stalled net job-growth forecast signals that Chattanooga's labor market tightness is concentrated in healthcare, education and skilled trades — a distinction that matters for anyone reading unemployment alone as a growth signal. T-Mobile's October reduction of 200 local positions, layered onto the UTC forecast downgrade, indicates that even consumer-facing and tech-adjacent employers are recalibrating headcount amid tariff-driven manufacturing uncertainty and elevated interest rates, which has direct bearing on local permitting, site-selection and incentive conversations. Current conditions suggest economic development and commerce leaders evaluate near-term investment and expansion pitches against sector-specific momentum — healthcare and skilled trades weighed against manufacturing and general professional services — alongside the metro's aggregate unemployment figure.
Looking ahead
Potential inflection point: UTC's Center for Regional Economic Research is expected to update its 2026 forecast again before year-end; a further downward revision from the current 1,100-job projection would confirm the slowdown is broadening beyond manufacturing.
Early indicator: City-led 'One Chattanooga Works' initiative targeting adults 25-54 launched in late October; initial enrollment and placement figures over the next 60 days will indicate whether labor force participation among prime-age workers is responding to coordinated local outreach.
Worth watching: Tennessee WARN filings sit at 49 notices covering 6,603 workers statewide through October 20; whether Chattanooga-area employers appear in additional filings will clarify if the T-Mobile reduction is isolated or part of a wider contraction.
Emerging pressure point: Continuing tariff uncertainty and elevated interest rates, cited explicitly by UTC as drags on manufacturing recovery, warrant tracking against any new site-selection or expansion announcements in the metro's industrial base over the next quarter.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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