Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA — October 2026
Chicago unemployment climbs as Illinois' statewide rate improves.
Cook County unemployment reached 5.9% in August and the metro rate hit 4.8% in September even as Illinois' statewide rate fell to 4.6% for a third straight month, exposing a widening gap between state and metro conditions.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 4.8% — Up from 4.5% a year earlier (Sept. 2026)
- Cook County unemployment: 5.9% — Up 1.2 pts year-over-year (Aug. 2026)
- Metro nonfarm payrolls, YoY: -2,700 jobs — Vs. national +182,000 in October
- Illinois statewide unemployment: 4.6% — Third straight monthly decline (Sept. 2026)
Key takeaways
Chicago's unemployment path is diverging from the state's.
Illinois unemployment fell for a third straight month to 4.6%, but Chicago-Naperville-Elgin rose to 4.8% and Cook County hit 5.9% — a full percentage point above the state figure. Commerce leaders citing statewide resilience should distinguish it from conditions in the metro core.
Payroll contraction is modest but directionally negative.
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg nonfarm employment fell 2,700 jobs year-over-year even as the metro retains roughly 4.8 million payroll jobs. The decline is small in scale but notable given national payrolls grew 182,000 in October — Chicago is moving against the national grain.
Education and health services remains the metro's stabilizer.
At 811,600 jobs, education and health services is the most reliable growth sector locally, consistent with national healthcare hiring strength. Economic development planning that leans on this sector's continuity looks better supported than bets on professional and business services, which nationally shed jobs in September.
Wage gains are outrunning inflation locally, a departure from the national pattern.
Chicago metro wages and salaries rose 3.9% over the year through June, and average weekly wage reached $1,824 in Q1 — well above the $1,654 national figure. That stands in contrast to the national story of real wage erosion, suggesting Chicago households may be faring better on purchasing power than the national headlines imply.
Median advertised pay by role — Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $30,401 | $35,360 | $38,396 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $28,978 | $33,280 | $35,360 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,677 | $39,520 | $42,328 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $61,500 | $80,198 | $90,870 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,118 | $35,000 | $41,434 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $34,082 | $40,342 | $42,978 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $64,183 | $75,511 | $83,200 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $35,360 | $39,858 | $42,640 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $35,360 | $41,600 | $46,800 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $31,200 | $35,360 | $37,440 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $37,430 | $44,000 | $46,280 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $38,288 | $47,840 | $54,080 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $62,965 | $75,000 | $86,721 | Stable | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $85,673 | $97,760 | $104,924 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $114,992 | $152,162 | $167,755 | Moderate increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $99,692 | $142,118 | $158,053 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $64,341 | $77,500 | $85,000 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $76,000 | $95,077 | $102,500 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $64,853 | $82,500 | $99,809 | Moderate increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $49,245 | $70,000 | $79,594 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $79,548 | $98,659 | $105,500 | Stable | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $40,040 | $58,425 | $67,820 | Moderate increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $67,500 | $92,831 | $110,000 | Moderate increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager | $54,810 | $87,500 | $90,000 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $79,068 | $93,404 | $108,646 | Moderate decline | $98,302 |
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $75,000 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $90,342 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $39,000 | Moderate increase | Moderate increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $57,000 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $110,490 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $109,200 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $82,500 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $62,440 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $35,880 | Stable | Moderate increase |
| Government | $70,548 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin unemployment registered 4.8% in September, up from 4.5% a year earlier, even as nonfarm payrolls slipped 2,700 year-over-year and Cook County unemployment climbed to 5.9% in August — a sharper deterioration than the state's modest 4.6% rate. Education and health services continues to anchor growth with 811,600 jobs metro-wide, while the Chicago Fed's Beige Book describes regional activity as flat, with manufacturing demand up only modestly and wages rising just moderately against a backdrop of statewide labor force contraction.
What it means
Rising unemployment paired with falling payrolls signals a metro economy losing momentum even as wages hold up — a divergence that complicates read-throughs for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing against softening local demand. Illinois' labor force shrank 1.3% year-over-year, meaning available workforce may tighten even as job counts fall, a combination that argues for caution in capital or footprint decisions tied to local labor availability. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should track Cook County's unemployment trajectory alongside payroll counts before treating the state's modest headline unemployment improvement as evidence of broad metro health.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Cook County's unemployment rate has risen 1.2 percentage points year-over-year to 5.9%. A continued climb over the next two reporting cycles would confirm metro-level softening distinct from the state's improving headline rate.
Potential inflection point: Illinois' labor force fell 1.3% year-over-year alongside a statewide participation rate near 63.6%. Watch whether Chicago-area participation follows the same path, which would tighten effective labor availability even as payroll counts soften.
Emerging pressure point: Illinois WARN filings rose 24% in affected workers versus 2025, concentrated in manufacturing and distribution, with white-collar roles largely unaffected. Track whether Chicago-area filings specifically accelerate, since the state total is still driven heavily by downstate closures like Tyson Foods in Hillsdale.
Expected: Government payrolls fell 4,600 statewide in September alongside a 3,700 drop in private education and health services. Public-sector stability, a traditional metro anchor, bears watching for whether this reflects a one-month fluctuation or the start of a trend.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.