Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Danville, IL MSA — October 2026
Danville's jobless rate falls as its job base shrinks
Vermilion County unemployment dropped to 4.5% in September even as total non-farm payrolls fell 400 jobs year-over-year, with healthcare's +250 job gain the metro's clearest bright spot.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Vermilion County unemployment: 4.5% — Down from 4.7% in August, 5.5% a year ago
- Metro non-farm employment: 25,525 jobs — Down 400 year-over-year despite falling jobless rate
- Illinois statewide unemployment: 4.6% — Third straight monthly decline; up 0.1pt vs year ago
- Illinois labor force change: -1.3% — Year-over-year statewide, despite falling jobless rate
Key takeaways
A declining jobless rate masks a shrinking job base.
Unemployment fell to 4.5% from 4.7% while total non-farm employment dropped 400 positions year-over-year, a combination that typically points to labor-force contraction over hiring strength. Press and economists should flag this distinction explicitly when characterizing metro momentum.
Healthcare is the metro's one unambiguous growth story.
Private Education-Health Services added 250 jobs locally even as four other sectors contracted, consistent with national and state patterns showing healthcare as the most durable source of employment growth. Certified Nursing Assistant pay locally ($43,680) now sits above the national median, suggesting the sector's local pull may be real and not purely a statistical artifact.
Manufacturing wage gains coexist with manufacturing job losses.
Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay rose moderately to $45,234, well above the $39,520 national median, even as the sector shed 150 jobs locally over the year. That combination is consistent with a smaller, more specialized manufacturing base commanding higher pay, a sign of concentration rather than broad-based sector health.
Government and professional-services softness track the statewide pattern.
Local Government (-150) and Professional-Business Services (-225) losses echo Illinois's statewide September contraction in Government (-4,600) and Private Education & Health Services (-3,700), suggesting Danville's public-sector softness is part of a broader state fiscal story and not an isolated local event.
Median advertised pay by role — Danville, IL MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $27,789 | $31,824 | $32,500 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $27,778 | $30,583 | $32,240 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $36,400 | $40,560 | $43,628 | Significant increase | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,846 | $78,000 | $85,800 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $30,062 | $32,129 | $39,986 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,360 | $35,360 | $37,180 | Moderate increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $63,010 | $71,389 | $72,290 | Stable | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $38,800 | $45,234 | $46,971 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $25,120 | $35,338 | $35,360 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $31,112 | $31,112 | $31,112 | Significant decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $42,120 | $43,680 | $45,760 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $38,244 | $45,344 | $47,840 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician * | $59,486 | $72,500 | $81,120 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $84,221 | $97,068 | $107,475 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer * | $112,375 | $151,889 | $166,850 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer * | $99,151 | $140,500 | $157,900 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $55,000 | $64,580 | $72,290 | Significant decline | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst * | $75,002 | $94,688 | $102,236 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $51,381 | $59,654 | $60,849 | Stable | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $47,901 | $66,560 | $76,003 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $75,000 | $98,658 | $105,495 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $39,000 | $50,272 | $56,189 | Moderate decline | $55,908 |
| Account Manager * | $66,000 | $94,814 | $114,643 | Moderate increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $65,000 | $88,516 | $91,749 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $78,986 | $94,391 | $108,327 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $50,252 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $77,324 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $50,938 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $39,972 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $121,289 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Financial Activities | $56,160 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $47,809 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $75,598 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,200 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $65,344 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Vermilion County's unemployment rate eased to 4.5% in September, the second straight monthly decline and a full point below year-ago levels, even as total non-farm employment fell by 400 jobs year-over-year to 25,525, a pattern consistent with workers finding jobs within a smaller overall employment base that is not expanding. Private Education-Health Services (+250 jobs) and Leisure-Hospitality (+50) carried the metro's growth while Professional-Business Services (-225), Government (-150), Manufacturing (-150) and Trade-Transportation-Utilities (-125) contracted, a divergence that mirrors the statewide split between service-sector resilience and public/industrial softness.
What it means
Falling unemployment alongside shrinking payrolls signals a labor market tightening through attrition and labor-force exit, not through expanding local demand, a distinction that matters for anyone reading Danville's headline rate as a proxy for business conditions. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions should treat the healthcare and hospitality gains as the metro's clearest points of actual momentum, while the manufacturing and government pullbacks warrant a closer look at whether they reflect national restructuring patterns or local-specific pressure. Consider cross-referencing Danville's sector-level payroll shifts against Vermilion County's upcoming October release before drawing conclusions about overall economic direction.
Looking ahead
Expected release: IDES's October unemployment and payroll figures for Vermilion County are due in the coming weeks; watch whether the September decline extends to a third consecutive month, which would strengthen the case for a durable tightening trend over a one-month anomaly.
Worth watching: Statewide, Illinois's labor force shrank 1.3% year-over-year even as unemployment fell — a dynamic worth tracking locally, since Vermilion County's own participation trend will determine whether its improving jobless rate reflects added strength or continued workforce exit.
Emerging pressure point: Illinois WARN filings rose 24% year-over-year statewide, concentrated in manufacturing and retail distribution; Danville's own manufacturing payroll decline (-150 over the year) suggests commerce leaders should monitor whether any regional plant-level notices surface in Vermilion County specifically.
Potential inflection point: National healthcare hiring demand remains the strongest sector signal, and Danville's Education-Health Services gains align with that pattern; sustained local strength here could offset weakness elsewhere in the metro's employment base over the next two quarters.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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