Labor Market Pulse · Human Resources · September 2026
Human Resources Labor Market Report: Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA — September 2026
Quad Cities jobs shrink while HR pay climbs.
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island lost 2,100 jobs year-over-year even as unemployment held at 4.2%, while local HR Business Partner pay jumped to $80,840 — nearly matching the $83,766 national median.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro nonfarm payroll change: -2,100 jobs — Largest % decline among IL metros, year-over-year
- Metro unemployment rate: 4.2% — vs 3.9% Illinois-side MSA, 4.1% US
- Illinois statewide job gap: 76,000 openings vs 60,000 resumes — IL JobLink, signals persistent talent scarcity
- Illinois WARN activity YTD: 91 notices, 16,782 workers — Through late September 2026
Key takeaways
Metro payrolls shrank even as unemployment looked stable.
The 2,100 year-over-year job loss — the steepest percentage decline among Illinois metros — occurred alongside a flat 4.2% unemployment rate, suggesting workers are leaving the labor force or relocating rather than simply switching jobs locally. Workforce planning should treat headline unemployment as a lagging, incomplete signal in this metro right now.
HR Business Partner pay is accelerating well past the national pace.
Metro median advertised pay for HR Business Partner roles sits at $80,840, up significantly and converging toward the $83,766 national median. Local employers appear to be bidding up strategic HR capacity even as broader metro job growth contracts — a signal that organizations are investing in HR infrastructure ahead of, not behind, headcount recovery.
Compensation Analyst and Payroll Specialist pay are falling against national gains.
Both roles show significant local declines ($64,310 and $58,870 respectively) while national medians hold stable or rise moderately. This divergence may suggest softening local demand for compensation infrastructure roles, or a correction from a previously inflated local market — worth validating against actual requisition volume before assuming parity with national trends.
Illinois's manufacturing rebound could tighten Quad Cities labor faster than payroll data shows.
Statewide manufacturing added 2,500 jobs in September after prior weakness, and manufacturing already accounts for over 11,400 local jobs. If the rebound reaches the Illinois side of the MSA, operations and logistics compensation benchmarking may need refreshing well before next payroll release confirms the shift.
Median advertised pay by role — Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation Analyst | $64,310 | $64,310 | $91,208 | Significant decline | $101,727 |
| HR Business Partner | $59,086 | $80,840 | $91,578 | Significant increase | $83,766 |
| Benefits Manager * | $92,500 | $120,087 | $132,500 | Moderate increase | $117,888 |
| HRIS Analyst * | $79,000 | $93,811 | $107,911 | Moderate increase | $97,555 |
| HR Coordinator | $38,016 | $45,865 | $50,700 | Moderate decline | $50,000 |
| Recruiter | $42,449 | $62,741 | $74,312 | Moderate increase | $68,167 |
| Payroll Specialist | $41,404 | $58,870 | $63,094 | Significant decline | $59,855 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Local market conditions
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in August, but the metro shed 2,100 nonfarm jobs year-over-year — the largest percentage decline of any Illinois metro, even as the Illinois side of the MSA posted a sharply lower 3.9% jobless rate. Manufacturing (11,406 jobs locally) and trade (15,694 jobs) remain the metro's employment backbone, putting local labor supply directly in the path of the statewide manufacturing rebound (+2,500 jobs in September) and Illinois's persistent talent gap, with 76,000+ open Illinois JobLink postings against just 60,000 resumes.
What it means
Falling headline unemployment paired with shrinking payrolls signals a metro where labor supply is tightening even as job growth stalls — a combination that typically raises retention stakes faster than it raises hiring urgency. Illinois's three-tiered minimum wage structure (state $15, Cook County $15.40, Chicago $17.05) does not directly bind Quad Cities employers, but it is reshaping candidate wage expectations migrating in from Chicago-area job boards and recruiters. Consider reviewing retention budgets against recruitment budgets this quarter — with job postings nationally turning positive for the first time in four years, local employers competing for manufacturing and trade talent may find it cheaper to hold onto current staff than to backfill into a tightening pool.
Looking ahead
Expected: September metro-level BLS data publishes October 28 — the first real read on whether the 2,100-job year-over-year decline is stabilizing or deepening. Treat current workforce plans as provisional until that release.
Emerging pressure point: Illinois WARN filings have hit 91 notices and 16,782 workers year-to-date, concentrated in financial activities and information. Watch whether displaced Chicago-area talent flows into Quad Cities applicant pools, particularly for HR and operations roles.
Worth watching: Illinois JobLink shows roughly 76,000 open positions against 60,000 resumes statewide — a gap that, if mirrored locally, keeps leverage with candidates in manufacturing and trade despite soft metro job growth.
Potential inflection point: National job postings turned positive for the first time in nearly four years as of mid-September. Confirm whether that momentum reaches Midwest manufacturing metros before shifting hiring budgets toward expansion.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.