Labor Market Pulse · Restaurant Industry · October 2026
Restaurant Industry Labor Market Report: Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA — October 2026
Quad Cities manager pay climbs as tipped-wage rules loosen.
Assistant Restaurant Manager pay in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island hit $45,734 — well above the $39,211 national median — even as metro-wide employment fell 3.3% year-over-year and federal tipped-wage rules shifted in operators' favor.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Illinois-section metro unemployment: 5.0% — Down from 5.4% a year ago (Sept 2026)
- Metro nonfarm job change: -3.3% YoY — 2,900 jobs lost, steepest among IL metros
- Scott vs. Rock Island County unemployment: 3.0% vs 4.0% — Growing divergence across the river
- Assistant Restaurant Manager pay gap: $45,734 vs $39,211 — Metro vs. national median, up significantly
Key takeaways
Assistant manager pay is pulling away from the national line.
Metro Assistant Restaurant Manager pay sits at $45,734 against a $39,211 national median, a gap wide enough to suggest local operators are bidding specifically for supervisory retention. Worth benchmarking this role against turnover data before assuming parity with GM-level pay decisions.
Shift Manager pay softening while GM pay holds flat.
Shift Manager advertised pay moved down moderately to $32,760, converging toward the $33,024 national figure, even as Restaurant Manager/GM pay stayed stable at $60,042. Compression at the first-line supervisory tier may reflect employers substituting Assistant Manager hires for Shift Manager roles, a shift in hiring structure separate from any change in demand.
Tipped-wage deregulation changes the FOH cost equation.
DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators apply the $2.13 tipped cash wage to non-tip-producing side work without the former 20% cap, a direct reduction in guaranteed wage obligations during slow shifts. Metro Server pay already sits below the national median ($31,073 vs. $35,024), so the practical savings may be larger here than in higher-wage coastal markets — but retention risk in a tight Scott County labor pool should factor into that calculus.
Illinois-side job losses may ease BOH sourcing pressure.
A 2,900-job, 3.3% year-over-year decline in the Illinois section's nonfarm employment, concentrated in manufacturing and retail layoffs, could widen the candidate pool for back-of-house roles that compete with those sectors on wage. Line Cook pay here ($34,320) already trails the national median ($37,421), leaving room to test modest increases if cook-specific turnover remains the binding constraint.
Median advertised pay by role — Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assistant Restaurant Manager | $35,360 | $45,734 | $46,800 | Significant increase | $39,211 |
| Catering Manager * | $38,968 | $55,000 | $61,361 | Stable | $50,076 |
| Crew | $25,806 | $31,200 | $33,280 | Stable | $30,066 |
| Line Cook | $31,093 | $34,320 | $37,038 | Stable | $37,421 |
| Restaurant Manager/General Manager | $47,956 | $60,042 | $75,000 | Stable | $59,724 |
| Server | $27,326 | $31,073 | $33,459 | Stable | $35,024 |
| Shift Manager | $28,570 | $32,760 | $36,400 | Moderate decline | $33,024 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Local market conditions
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island's Illinois section posted 5.0% unemployment in September, down from 5.4% a year earlier even as nonfarm employment fell 3.3% year-over-year — a 2,900-job loss that marks the steepest decline among Illinois metros. Scott County's labor market diverges sharply, holding 3.0% unemployment versus Rock Island County's 4.0%, while a national policy shift eliminating the federal tipped-wage 80/20 rule gives operators new flexibility on side-work pay just as front-of-house retention remains stretched.
What it means
Metro-level job contraction alongside tight Scott County unemployment signals a bifurcated labor pool — operators on the Iowa side compete for a shrinking supply of workers, while Illinois-side softening may loosen candidate flow for back-of-house roles tied to manufacturing and retail displacement. Rising local Assistant Restaurant Manager pay ($45,734, well above the $39,211 national median) suggests operators are already paying up to retain mid-management bench strength amid 80% annual turnover nationally, even as line-level roles like Server and Shift Manager hold flat or soften. Consider reviewing whether management-tier compensation increases are being funded by continued discipline on entry-level FOH pay, since that gap could widen turnover risk at the server and host level just as full-service staffing remains below pre-pandemic baselines.
Looking ahead
Policy shift to monitor: 80/20 rule elimination takes effect broadly this month; watch whether Quad Cities operators adjust side-work scheduling and whether effective FOH take-home pay declines enough to show up in server turnover or applicant volume.
Emerging pressure point: Rock Island County unemployment (4.0%) trailing Scott County (3.0%) may widen if Illinois-side job losses continue; a growing applicant pool on the Illinois side could ease BOH hiring even as Iowa-side front-of-house roles stay tight.
Worth watching: Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act compliance costs compound into winter seasonal staffing decisions — operators cutting hours for holiday slowdowns should model accrual obligations before assuming labor cost savings.
Early indicator: National cook employment is projected to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waiters, a demand asymmetry that should show up locally first in Line Cook advertised pay movement — currently flat at $34,320 but worth tracking monthly for inflection.
Sources
- Illinois Department of Employment Security — Illinois section of metro unemployment at 5.0% in September 2026, down from 5.4%
- Illinois Department of Employment Security — Metro nonfarm employment fell 3.3% YoY, a loss of 2,900 jobs
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Scott County unemployment at 3.0%, Rock Island County at 4.0% (Aug 2026)
- U.S. Department of Labor — DOL withdrew the tipped-wage 80/20 rule in October 2026
- National Restaurant Association — Restaurant annual turnover reached approximately 80%
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% from 2025-2035 vs. 2% for waiters
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.