Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Dubuque, IA MSA — September 2026
Dubuque's low jobless rate hides a two-speed economy.
Dubuque's 3.3% July unemployment rate beats the national 4.2%, but manufacturing pay is softening locally even as healthcare pay climbs to $111,956 — a divergence that points to uneven, not broad-based, economic momentum.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Dubuque MSA unemployment: 3.3% — July 2026, vs 4.2% national rate
- National payroll growth: +29,000 jobs — September 2026, below 45k 12-mo average
- Iowa unemployment rate: 3.2% — Steady 4th month, down from 3.5% a year ago
- Statewide job openings: 60,378 — Iowa Workforce Development, Sept 2026
Key takeaways
Low unemployment is masking sector-level fragility.
Dubuque's 3.3% July unemployment rate looks strong against the 4.2% national figure, but manufacturing production worker pay is down moderately locally while healthcare and construction pay rise. A single-digit jobless rate is not the same as uniform economic health across the metro's business base.
Manufacturing remains the metro's swing factor.
John Deere Dubuque Works layoffs in 2025 and continuing softness in manufacturing production pay point to a sector still absorbing demand shifts, even as statewide manufacturing added jobs in August. Given manufacturing's historic weight in the local economy, its trajectory will likely determine whether 2026 closes stronger or weaker than it opened.
Healthcare and skilled trades are the current growth engine.
Registered nurse pay is up significantly locally (to $111,956, above the national median) and HVAC and electrician pay are both rising, mirroring the statewide pattern where healthcare and construction are the only sectors showing sustained annual job growth. This concentration suggests local business investment and real estate activity tied to healthcare and skilled trades deserve closer tracking than retail or logistics.
National wage-inflation gap has not yet shown up locally.
National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power, but Dubuque's own pay signals are more mixed — several metro roles show significant upward movement even as others decline. Local purchasing power trends are worth monitoring directly rather than assuming the national squeeze applies uniformly here.
Median advertised pay by role — Dubuque, IA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $23,780 | $28,943 | $32,240 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,561 | $29,107 | $30,836 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,201 | $35,360 | $39,520 | Significant decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $52,860 | $76,026 | $85,500 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,120 | $33,280 | $39,474 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $37,440 | $43,680 | $44,200 | Moderate increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $58,664 | $66,253 | $73,765 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $36,422 | $44,657 | $46,176 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $29,272 | $36,400 | $37,960 | Significant decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $29,518 | $34,095 | $34,644 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $35,312 | $41,344 | $45,645 | Moderate decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $33,800 | $36,400 | $40,072 | Moderate decline | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $59,326 | $60,895 | $60,895 | Moderate increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $83,183 | $111,956 | $119,135 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $93,732 | $112,092 | $112,428 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $91,434 | $127,058 | $138,369 | Moderate decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $55,863 | $60,000 | $62,940 | Significant increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $69,709 | $77,500 | $83,044 | Significant increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $49,176 | $60,000 | $68,500 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $47,500 | $80,000 | $87,084 | Significant increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $64,060 | $94,296 | $101,538 | Moderate increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $32,006 | $44,925 | $50,871 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $58,392 | $75,051 | $85,000 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $52,500 | $60,000 | $60,000 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $73,430 | $91,978 | $99,150 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $54,080 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $44,966 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $34,333 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $51,399 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $51,210 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $60,320 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $60,233 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $79,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $29,535 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $64,892 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Dubuque's metro labor market continues to outperform the national trend on paper — July 2026 unemployment sat at 3.3% against a national rate of 4.2% — but employment growth has flattened after last year's record 62,200 non-farm employee peak, with manufacturing headwinds (John Deere Dubuque Works layoffs) weighing against resilience in education and health services. Statewide, wage growth is positive but modest (3.9% annual, per Q1 2026 BLS), while Dubuque's own advertised pay data shows a mixed picture — manufacturing production pay down moderately even as construction and registered nursing pay rise significantly, suggesting uneven momentum across sectors rather than broad-based strength.
What it means
Divergent sector performance — manufacturing softness against healthcare and skilled-trades strength — suggests the metro's economic resilience is increasingly concentrated rather than broad-based, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders assessing where local business investment and expansion capacity actually exist. Public-sector and healthcare stability provide a floor for consumer spending even as manufacturing adjusts, but a repeat of 2025's Deere-related layoffs would test that floor given manufacturing's outsized share of the metro's job base. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider tracking sector-level advertised pay and job posting volume separately from the headline unemployment rate, since a low jobless rate can mask uneven underlying momentum.
Looking ahead
Data gap to watch: Official BLS figures for the Dubuque MSA lag national releases by roughly two months, meaning September 2026 metro data will not surface until November. Commerce leaders making near-term judgments should treat July's 3.3% unemployment reading as the most current confirmed baseline.
Emerging pressure point: Manufacturing accounted for 46% of Iowa's WARN-affected workers over the past 24 months, and Dubuque's own Deere-related layoffs fit that pattern. A repeat announcement from a major regional manufacturer would be the clearest signal of whether 2026 marks a turning point or a one-off adjustment.
Worth watching: Iowa's labor force is shrinking due to retirement outflows among 45-54-year-olds rather than job losses, a demographic dynamic that applies to Dubuque's aging workforce as well. Watch whether local labor force participation holds near the state's 67.0% rate or begins to soften as retirements accelerate.
Potential inflection point: National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to prior months, and if that cooling trend persists it will eventually pressure even resilient metros like Dubuque. Track whether Iowa's 60,378 statewide job openings start to shrink as a leading sign of broader demand softening.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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