Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Duluth, MN-WI MSA — October 2026
Duluth unemployment outpaces the nation as healthcare props up jobs.
Duluth metro unemployment hit 5.2% in August — a full point above the national 4.1% rate — while Health Care & Social Assistance grew 6.5% to become the region's largest single employment pillar.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Duluth MSA unemployment: 5.2% — vs 4.1% national, up 0.6pt year-over-year
- St. Louis County unemployment: 5.4% — vs 4.0% a year ago in the county
- Duluth metro nonfarm employment: -0.9% — Year-over-year change through May 2026
- St. Louis County average weekly wage: $1,257 — Up 3.2% year-over-year, Q1 2026
Key takeaways
Duluth's unemployment gap with the nation is widening.
Metro unemployment at 5.2% sits a full point above the national 4.1% rate, and the 0.6-point year-over-year increase outpaces the national trend. That divergence suggests local structural factors are weighing on the Duluth labor market specifically, alongside national cyclical softness.
Healthcare is carrying the region's job growth almost alone.
Health Care & Social Assistance added jobs at 6.5% growth to reach 33,864 positions, the metro's largest employment base, while total nonfarm employment fell 0.9% over the same period. A local economy this dependent on one sector's expansion carries higher exposure if healthcare hiring demand cools.
Wage gains are outrunning the metro's weak jobs numbers.
St. Louis County average weekly wages rose 3.2% to $1,257 even as county employment fell 0.7% and unemployment rose — an unusual pairing that may suggest employers are raising pay for a shrinking, more selective pool of filled positions, a dynamic distinct from broad-based labor market strength.
A meaningful share of metro jobs still pay below $17 an hour.
About 12% of Duluth-area jobs fall under that threshold, with Food Prep & Serving Related work at a $14.56 median — a reminder that wage-vs-inflation erosion lands hardest on frontline service workers already facing Minnesota's statewide real-wage decline.
Median advertised pay by role — Duluth, MN-WI MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $25,033 | $31,837 | $35,210 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $28,080 | $31,790 | $33,498 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,683 | $40,000 | $42,000 | Moderate decline | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,673 | $81,122 | $97,500 | Significant increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,997 | $34,791 | $41,797 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $39,520 | $44,563 | $45,291 | Moderate increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $72,104 | $86,622 | $88,785 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $37,440 | $43,680 | $46,956 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $35,360 | $37,952 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $28,080 | $33,590 | $36,317 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $38,480 | $46,613 | $50,887 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $28,682 | $41,600 | $46,800 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $56,160 | $79,000 | $81,120 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $79,380 | $94,326 | $104,759 | Stable | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $106,398 | $126,478 | $134,131 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $89,436 | $100,276 | $104,459 | Significant decline | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $57,759 | $66,126 | $71,000 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $71,493 | $80,093 | $91,618 | Moderate increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $55,000 | $66,829 | $80,464 | Moderate increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $48,420 | $60,320 | $60,834 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $67,000 | $115,507 | $121,771 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $34,290 | $44,564 | $54,106 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $67,792 | $90,000 | $101,213 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $69,124 | $89,169 | $89,169 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $75,500 | $92,805 | $93,474 | Significant decline | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $63,417 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $73,228 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $38,453 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $46,384 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $66,835 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $61,675 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $60,320 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $58,039 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $35,360 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $67,973 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Duluth MSA unemployment climbed to 5.2% in August 2026, a 0.6 percentage point rise from a year earlier, while St. Louis County's rate of 5.4% now trails the national average by a full percentage point and the state average by nearly a point. Total nonfarm employment in the metro fell 0.9% year-over-year through May even as Health Care & Social Assistance expanded 6.5% to 33,864 jobs, pointing to a labor market where softness is broad but unevenly distributed across sectors.
What it means
Rising unemployment alongside wage growth of 3.2% for St. Louis County (average weekly wage $1,257) suggests the metro's labor market slack has yet to translate into broad pay deceleration, a combination that complicates read-throughs on local consumer spending power for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing. Healthcare's continued growth against contraction elsewhere signals a local economy increasingly dependent on a single sector's momentum, a concentration risk worth factoring into any assessment of Duluth's near-term commercial resilience. Current conditions suggest economic development leaders consider tracking sector concentration alongside headline employment figures when briefing stakeholders on metro health.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: St. Louis County unemployment has moved from 4.0% to 5.4% year-over-year — track whether the November DEED release shows this stabilizing or continuing to climb relative to the state's 4.5% figure.
Emerging pressure point: Minnesota's labor force participation rate fell to 66.7% amid state economist commentary linking the decline to immigration enforcement activity; any similar participation drop in St. Louis County would compound existing employment softness.
Potential inflection point: Healthcare's 6.5% regional growth rate makes it the metro's single largest swing factor — a slowdown in Health Care & Social Assistance hiring demand, measured through job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, would remove the sector currently offsetting losses elsewhere.
Early indicator: Statewide WARN notices affecting manufacturing, retail and healthcare fell 69% year-to-date in 2026, a signal worth cross-checking against any new Duluth-area filings to see if the local trend matches the state's improvement.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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