Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Elizabethtown, KY MSA — September 2026
Elizabethtown unemployment falls, but manufacturing churn clouds the read.
Metro unemployment dropped from 4.9% to 4.0% between September and December 2025, even as two 2025 closures erased 680 manufacturing jobs and construction laborer pay climbed to a $37,440 median.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 4.0% — Down from 4.9% in Sept. 2025; KY statewide at 4.7%
- Manufacturing jobs lost to closures: 680 — Akebono Brake (450) + Fritz Winter N.A. (230), 2025
- MSA manufacturing employment: 9.2K — Down from 9.4K in Sept. 2025
- Construction laborer advertised pay: $37,440 — Up significantly; vs. $40,560 national median
Key takeaways
Falling unemployment masks unresolved manufacturing churn.
MSA unemployment dropped from 4.9% to 4.0% between September and December 2025, but that span overlaps two major closures totaling 680 manufacturing jobs. A lower jobless rate alongside flat-to-declining manufacturing employment suggests displaced workers are being absorbed elsewhere rather than the sector itself recovering.
Construction pay is pulling ahead of the metro's wage curve.
Construction laborer pay rose significantly locally to a $37,440 median, and electrician pay climbed to $70,355, both outpacing stable or declining advertised pay in retail, logistics, and administrative roles. That divergence points to construction and skilled trades as the metro's clearest pocket of real economic momentum this month.
Public-sector pay signals stability, not retreat.
Elizabethtown's active Fire Chief recruitment and steady teacher pay ($66,945 median, stable) suggest local government payrolls are holding steady even as national government employment has shed 216,000 positions over the past year. That stability contrasts with the national private-versus-public divergence and is a relevant input for anyone assessing the metro's public-service capacity.
Several metro pay signals are moving opposite the national trend.
Financial Analyst ($70,440, down significantly) and Business Analyst ($95,217, down significantly) advertised pay fell locally while national figures held flat or rose, and Account Manager pay sits at barely a third of the national median. These divergences may reflect a thinner local market for professional-services roles rather than a broad wage retreat, but they warrant a second look before drawing metro-wide conclusions from any single occupation.
Median advertised pay by role — Elizabethtown, KY MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $20,627 | $27,646 | $32,256 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $23,477 | $26,464 | $30,654 | Moderate decline | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,619 | $34,320 | $35,360 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,382 | $78,000 | $88,876 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,120 | $33,340 | $39,402 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,066 | $37,440 | $41,600 | Significant increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $60,751 | $70,355 | $72,800 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,200 | $34,320 | $37,440 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,280 | $38,496 | $42,288 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $30,487 | $40,653 | $40,654 | Significant increase | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,199 | $39,648 | $43,217 | Moderate decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,916 | $36,478 | $39,520 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician * | $57,200 | $65,200 | $72,800 | Stable | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $79,315 | $92,482 | $103,965 | Moderate increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $64,731 | $68,995 | $68,996 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $99,174 | $141,235 | $158,888 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant * | $57,692 | $70,086 | $77,500 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $65,044 | $70,440 | $81,096 | Significant decline | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager * | $50,806 | $70,000 | $82,500 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $43,913 | $58,052 | $70,115 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $72,768 | $77,500 | $92,158 | Significant decline | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $44,798 | $66,945 | $66,946 | Stable | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $31,200 | $33,280 | $36,386 | Significant decline | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $51,071 | $74,500 | $74,500 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $68,372 | $95,217 | $96,691 | Significant decline | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $61,679 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $89,119 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $35,375 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $62,400 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $39,520 | Moderate decline | Moderate decline |
| Financial Activities | $43,420 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $54,080 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $69,497 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,200 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $68,062 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA unemployment tightened to 4.0% by December 2025 from 4.9% in September 2025, but that improvement sits against two confirmed 2025 manufacturing closures -- Akebono Brake (450 jobs) and Fritz Winter North America (230 jobs) -- whose full payroll impact is still working through 2026 reporting. Statewide manufacturing employment remains 2,000 jobs below year-ago levels even as construction and durable-goods manufacturing post modest August gains, suggesting the metro's industrial base is stabilizing unevenly rather than broadly expanding.
What it means
Local advertised pay data shows construction labor and electrician pay rising significantly while manufacturing production pay sits flat, consistent with a metro where skilled trades tied to construction and infrastructure are tightening faster than factory-floor roles still absorbing 2025 closure fallout. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or facility investment should read the Akebono and Fritz Winter closures as a labor-supply release rather than a demand signal -- displaced manufacturing workers may be entering adjacent sectors, including construction, at a pace worth tracking. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Hardin County's manufacturing employment base (7,388 workers as of 2024) stabilizes over the next two quarters before treating the metro's falling unemployment rate as a clean signal of economic strength.
Looking ahead
Expected data release: BLS September 2026 metro-level unemployment and payroll figures are due in October; watch whether the December 2025 improvement to 4.0% held through the first three quarters of 2026 or reflects a seasonal or temporary dip.
Emerging pressure point: Federal Medicaid budget cuts beginning in 2027 threaten healthcare employment statewide, a sector that has been one of Kentucky's few steady job-growth sources; local healthcare employment (6,597 workers in Hardin County) is a key indicator to track given Registered Nurse pay is already up moderately.
Worth watching: Whether workers displaced by the Akebono Brake and Fritz Winter North America closures show up in rising construction or logistics labor supply, or instead register as discouraged workers leaving the labor force -- the distinction matters for reading the metro's true slack.
Potential inflection point: Kentucky's labor force has grown for three consecutive months after five months of decline; if that statewide re-entry trend reaches Hardin County, it could ease the tight labor conditions implied by the metro's falling unemployment rate.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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