Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Elkhart-Goshen, IN MSA — September 2026
Elkhart's jobless rate outpaces Indiana as RV sector wobbles.
Elkhart County unemployment climbed to roughly 4.1% from 3.3% in May even as Indiana held steady statewide at 3.3%, underscoring how concentrated RV manufacturing exposure is driving local volatility.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Elkhart County unemployment rate: ~4.1% — Up from 3.3% in May 2026
- Indiana statewide unemployment rate: 3.3% — Lowest since May 2023; flat 3 months
- Manufacturing share of metro employment: ~46% — Mostly RV production, Elkhart-Goshen MSA
- Metro average wage: $27.97/hr — vs Indiana 3.8% YoY wage growth statewide
Key takeaways
Elkhart's jobless rate is rising faster than the state's.
County unemployment moved from 3.3% in May to roughly 4.1% by late summer, while Indiana held flat at 3.3% statewide. Divergence this size signals a local, sector-specific dynamic rather than a broader state slowdown.
Manufacturing concentration is both the engine and the exposure.
RV-tied manufacturing drives close to 46% of nonfarm jobs locally, well above typical metro concentration levels, and now accounts for a disproportionate share of unemployment claims even as overall manufacturing employment sits above last year. The sector is generating headline job growth and local volatility simultaneously.
Local pay growth trails the state despite tighter national conditions.
Elkhart-Goshen's average wage of $27.97/hour compares against Indiana's 3.8% year-over-year wage growth statewide, and local production-occupation pay only modestly exceeds the national figure. Wage momentum here looks flatter than the state's broader manufacturing-led gains.
Indiana's tight labor market offers a stabilizing backdrop, not a shield.
Statewide unemployment at 3.3% and 103,000 open postings point to sustained regional demand, but Elkhart's single-sector exposure means state-level tightness won't necessarily buffer a local RV-demand pullback. Commerce leaders should treat state indicators as context, not a proxy for metro-level risk.
Median advertised pay by role — Elkhart-Goshen, IN MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,880 | $29,120 | $38,480 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $24,107 | $26,372 | $29,120 | Moderate decline | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $33,329 | $39,520 | $41,600 | Moderate increase | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $56,648 | $75,790 | $88,477 | Moderate increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,689 | $33,280 | $39,520 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,504 | $35,728 | $39,520 | Moderate decline | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $58,878 | $72,800 | $74,880 | Moderate increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,776 | $37,440 | $39,520 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $35,646 | $38,480 | $43,083 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $27,463 | $29,769 | $34,669 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,909 | $39,717 | $42,848 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $32,166 | $37,456 | $40,924 | Moderate decline | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $62,231 | $68,468 | $71,260 | Significant increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $76,918 | $89,046 | $94,248 | Stable | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $100,298 | $109,441 | $118,926 | Moderate decline | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $92,885 | $123,169 | $140,680 | Stable | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $57,090 | $63,820 | $69,219 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $64,861 | $70,845 | $98,300 | Moderate decline | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $53,865 | $63,296 | $67,172 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $46,520 | $53,335 | $55,864 | Significant decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $81,721 | $81,721 | $81,721 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $35,972 | $52,884 | $59,382 | Stable | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $50,623 | $79,434 | $90,000 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $63,750 | $65,401 | $67,500 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $73,614 | $80,753 | $90,092 | Significant decline | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $55,358 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $47,290 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $34,480 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $59,641 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $51,500 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $45,491 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $49,920 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $60,725 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,572 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Government | $66,071 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Elkhart-Goshen's unemployment rate climbed to roughly 4.1% by late summer 2026, up from 3.3% in May, a sharper and faster deterioration than Indiana's statewide hold at 3.3%, reflecting the metro's outsized exposure to RV manufacturing, which accounts for close to 46% of nonfarm employment and remains sensitive to consumer durable-goods demand cycles. Manufacturing continues to generate both local job gains and a disproportionate share of unemployment claims, indicating a sector running hot and volatile at the same time rather than steadily expanding.
What it means
A metro economy this concentrated in one cyclical sector means local business conditions can swing faster than state or national trends suggest, which matters for capital investment timing, commercial lending risk assessments, and municipal revenue forecasting tied to manufacturing payrolls. Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating expansion incentives or new facility recruitment should weigh diversification value as much as job-count headlines, since another RV-demand downturn would concentrate losses in the same geography and workforce. Current conditions suggest reviewing how reliant local economic development pipelines and public revenue projections remain on manufacturing cyclicality before committing to incentive packages tied to single-sector growth.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether Elkhart County's unemployment rate stabilizes near 4.1% or continues climbing toward the 4.0%-4.2% range regional forecasters flagged for 2026 — a plateau would suggest a cyclical pause, continued climb would point to deeper RV-sector softening.
Worth watching: Owens Corning's WARN notice affecting 130 workers in Walkerton took effect September 19; track whether additional manufacturing WARN filings emerge regionally, which would compound the claims pressure already concentrated in manufacturing.
Potential inflection point: National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power; a similar squeeze locally, layered onto Elkhart's already-trailing wage growth, could further soften consumer spending that supports local retail and services.
Expected: Indiana's Q3 IEDC announcements already show 5,385 committed new jobs at above-average wages statewide; watch whether any of this investment activity reaches Elkhart County specifically as a signal of sector diversification beyond RV manufacturing.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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