Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Evansville, IN-KY MSA — October 2026
Evansville wages climb as its labor force quietly shrinks.
Vanderburgh County wages rose 2.9% year-over-year even as employment fell 0.5% and the metro unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%, raising questions about whether low unemployment reflects strength or a shrinking workforce.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Evansville MSA unemployment rate: 3.6% — Up from 3.4% in August; below 4.1% national rate
- Vanderburgh County wage growth: 2.9% — Year-over-year, Q1 2026, to $1,188/week average
- Vanderburgh County employment change: -0.5% — Year-over-year decline, Q1 2026, despite wage gains
- Indiana open job postings: 106,223 — Statewide as of Sept. 30, 2026
Key takeaways
Wage growth outpaces local employment growth, a caution sign.
Vanderburgh County wages rose 2.9% year-over-year even as employment fell 0.5%, a pattern consistent with a shrinking labor pool pushing up pay for available workers while business expansion stays modest. Economic development planning should treat this as a capacity constraint and a strength indicator together, with the capacity constraint taking precedence in how it's weighed.
September's unemployment uptick likely reflects a smaller labor force.
Evansville's rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6% in the same month Indiana posted its first statewide increase since 2024, with state analysts attributing the change to labor force and employment both declining, a shift separate from any acceleration in job losses. The distinction matters for any public messaging on local economic health.
Manufacturing and health care remain the metro's stabilizing sectors.
Statewide, Education and Health Services (+3,700) and Manufacturing (+3,500) led job gains in the latest month, a pattern that aligns with Evansville's existing industrial and medical employment base and with continued capital projects like the Phillips 66 Mount Vernon expansion. These sectors appear to be absorbing broader softness seen in white-collar categories nationally.
Real wages are flat to negative even where nominal pay rises.
National CPI gains of 3.5-3.7% continue to outpace most wage growth figures, and Vanderburgh County's 2.9% wage gain sits below that threshold, meaning local households may be losing purchasing power despite headline wage increases. Consumer spending resilience in the metro deserves scrutiny before being assumed.
Median advertised pay by role — Evansville, IN-KY MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $21,474 | $27,368 | $32,111 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $23,407 | $27,040 | $29,120 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,960 | $36,322 | $39,520 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,769 | $78,000 | $88,400 | Moderate increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,146 | $34,602 | $44,720 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $32,411 | $41,600 | $43,680 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $62,561 | $73,862 | $84,614 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,160 | $37,440 | $37,895 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $32,849 | $37,067 | $38,480 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $26,086 | $29,176 | $31,200 | Moderate decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,255 | $37,440 | $40,144 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $33,280 | $39,723 | $42,832 | Significant decline | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $62,400 | $75,000 | $78,533 | Moderate decline | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $80,919 | $102,195 | $107,990 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $82,526 | $123,637 | $168,121 | Moderate decline | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer * | $94,031 | $128,500 | $143,256 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $50,345 | $64,711 | $77,418 | Moderate decline | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $67,466 | $88,915 | $96,935 | Significant increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $41,600 | $58,543 | $68,278 | Moderate decline | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $46,090 | $52,997 | $65,381 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $77,596 | $83,253 | $92,092 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $29,827 | $46,428 | $54,445 | Moderate decline | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $57,063 | $80,000 | $91,447 | Stable | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $64,250 | $67,500 | $83,285 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $70,663 | $92,686 | $98,666 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $60,000 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $62,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $36,216 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $65,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $109,200 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $62,500 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $62,400 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $82,632 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,491 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $63,398 | Stable | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Evansville metro unemployment rose to 3.6% in September from 3.4% in August, a small uptick that mirrors Indiana's first statewide increase since August 2024, while Vanderburgh County average weekly wages climbed 2.9% year-over-year to $1,188 against a county employment base that contracted 0.5%. Manufacturing and health/education services continue to anchor state-level job growth (+3,500 and +3,700 respectively in the latest month), consistent with the metro's long-standing industrial and logistics base, even as the Phillips 66 renewable diesel expansion at Mount Vernon signals continued capital investment in the region's energy and manufacturing corridor.
What it means
Rising wages alongside a shrinking employment base point to a labor market tightening from the supply side, with fewer available workers pushing up pay even as business expansion stays modest, a distinction that matters for anyone gauging whether the metro's growth is organic or constrained by workforce availability. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions should weigh that below-national unemployment reflects fewer workers in the labor force as much as strong demand, a dynamic that affects how quickly new capacity could be staffed. Current conditions suggest monitoring Vanderburgh County's labor force trend alongside wage data before treating low unemployment alone as a signal of economic strength.
Looking ahead
Expected release: Indiana Department of Workforce Development and BLS October data for the Evansville MSA are due in late October/early November; watch whether the September uptick to 3.6% persists or reverses, which will clarify whether this is noise or a trend.
Worth watching: Vanderburgh County's employment-wage divergence (wages up, employment down) bears monitoring for a second consecutive quarter, which would strengthen the case that labor supply is the metro's binding constraint, with demand playing a secondary role.
Potential inflection point: National CPI data due November 10 will determine whether the local wage-inflation gap narrows or widens; a continued gap pressures household spending power across the metro's retail and service sectors.
Early indicator: Continued capital investment activity tied to projects like the Phillips 66 Mount Vernon expansion warrants tracking for any associated construction or operational job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings) and not yet a confirmed count of new positions.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Evansville MSA September 2026 unemployment rate of 3.6%, up from 3.4%
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW — Vanderburgh County wages up 2.9% YoY to $1,188 amid 0.5% employment decline
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Indiana statewide job gains led by Education/Health (+3,700) and Manufacturing (+3,500)
- Phillips 66 — Phillips 66 completed $100M+ renewable diesel expansion at Mount Vernon refinery
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Indiana's September unemployment uptick was first since August 2024
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.