Labor Market Pulse · Human Resources · October 2026
Human Resources Labor Market Report: Great Falls, MT MSA — October 2026
Great Falls wages climb as local hiring tightens further.
Cascade County unemployment near 3.0% and statewide wage growth of 5.4% are colliding with a 1,300-job September payroll decline, pushing Recruiter pay to $71,211 locally against a flat national figure.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Cascade County unemployment: 3.0% — vs. 4.2% national rate (July/Sept 2026)
- Montana statewide wage growth: 5.4% — vs. 3.4% U.S. average (2025)
- Cascade County payroll change: -1,300 jobs — September 2026, led by hospitality, finance
- Cascade County avg. weekly wage: $1,126 — vs. $1,229 Montana statewide (Q1 2026)
Key takeaways
Recruiter pay is climbing fast while demand stays thin nationally.
Metro Recruiter advertised pay sits at $71,211, up significantly, even as national Recruiter pay holds flat at $67,234. Local employers appear to be competing hard for scarce recruiting talent to manage tight candidate pipelines, a sign of pipeline pressure separate from overall hiring volume.
HR Coordinator pay growth outpaces the national trend.
Metro HR Coordinator pay rose significantly to $45,760 against a moderate national increase to $50,460, narrowing the historical gap. Entry-level HR pay floors are rising locally in step with Montana's January 2027 minimum wage increase to $11.20, compressing the spread between coordinator and higher HR roles.
Public-sector staffing strain is a retention signal worth tracking closely.
Cascade County Sheriff's Office cut inmate population after four resignations caused a 'critical staffing shortage,' echoing a national pattern in detention and frontline government roles. Comparable public-sector employers should treat this as an early indicator of a broader pattern affecting local personnel planning.
Statewide wage growth is masking local employment softness.
Montana wages rose 5.4% in 2025 even as the state posted its first annual employment decline since 2020, and Cascade County shed 1,300 payroll jobs in September concentrated in hospitality and finance. Compensation increases driven by labor scarcity call for workforce planning that distinguishes wage-floor pressure from growth-driven hiring.
Median advertised pay by role — Great Falls, MT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation Analyst * | $71,050 | $105,923 | $118,326 | Stable | $100,798 |
| HR Business Partner | $57,200 | $67,738 | $75,169 | Significant increase | $83,900 |
| Benefits Manager * | $79,636 | $116,048 | $122,901 | Moderate increase | $118,618 |
| HRIS Analyst * | $81,198 | $97,578 | $112,932 | Stable | $95,000 |
| HR Coordinator * | $36,782 | $45,760 | $54,046 | Significant increase | $50,460 |
| Recruiter | $55,446 | $71,211 | $71,760 | Significant increase | $67,234 |
| Payroll Specialist * | $45,845 | $55,000 | $64,829 | Moderate increase | $61,103 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Local market conditions
Cascade County unemployment held near 3.0% in July, roughly half the national rate of 4.2%, while payroll jobs statewide fell 1,300 in September on seasonal softness in accommodation, food service and finance. Great Falls wage growth is outrunning labor supply — average weekly wages reached $1,126 in Cascade County versus $1,229 statewide — as healthcare, public administration and federal-contractor employment tied to Malmstrom Air Force Base continue to absorb the available workforce.
What it means
Tight local supply combined with statewide wage growth of 5.4% in 2025 means employers competing for the same shrinking applicant pool face upward pressure on starting pay even as national hiring has slowed to a near-freeze. Sector-specific strain — visible in Cascade County Sheriff's Office staffing shortages tied to four resignations — signals that public-sector and frontline roles may require retention-focused compensation review before vacancies compound into service-delivery risk. Consider reviewing starting pay and retention incentives for frontline public-sector and healthcare roles where local turnover appears to be outpacing replacement hiring.
Looking ahead
Expected: Montana's October labor market data releases November 20 and will show whether September's 1,300-job payroll decline in accommodation, food service and finance was seasonal or signals a deeper slowdown heading into winter.
Emerging pressure point: Detention and frontline public-sector staffing shortages at Cascade County Sheriff's Office may spread to comparable county and municipal employers; watch whether competitive pay adjustments appear in other local government postings.
Potential inflection point: Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027. HR leaders should model compression effects on entry-level and coordinator-level pay scales before the increase takes effect.
Worth watching: National BLS data showing a 'low-hire, low-fire' pattern and mid-market firms lagging large and small employers in hiring speed may extend to Great Falls, where mid-sized healthcare and retail employers could face longer time-to-fill for open roles.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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