Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Hawaii's rural counties: low unemployment, thinning momentum.
Hawaii's statewide jobless rate eased to 2.5% in September, but nonmetro Hawaii County's $1,190 average weekly wage — lowest in the state — and a 34% drop in building permits point to a labor market coasting on existing projects rather than new growth.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Hawaii statewide unemployment: 2.5% — Down from 2.7% in August 2026
- Hawaii County avg weekly wage: $1,190 — Lowest of all Hawaii counties, Q1 2026
- Private building permit value: -34.0% — First 7 months of 2026 vs. year prior
- Federal government employment: -8.7% YoY — Drove overall government sector down 2.4%
Key takeaways
Low unemployment is masking a hollowing labor force.
September's 2.5% jobless rate looks tight, but it sits alongside a federal workforce down 8.7% year-over-year and overall nonfarm job growth of just 0.2% statewide since last July. A rate this low typically signals strength; here it mostly reflects a small, aging rural labor pool rather than robust hiring.
Construction strength is a trailing signal, not a leading one.
Construction payrolls grew 3.3% through July even as private building permit values fell 34% in the same period. Current job counts reflect projects already funded and underway; absent new permitting, commerce leaders should expect construction employment to turn by mid-2027.
Healthcare is the one sector pricing in genuine scarcity.
Hawaii County health care and social assistance added 300 jobs (+3.7%) in Q1 while advertised pay for Certified Nursing Assistants and Registered Nurses both rose. That divergence from flat retail and manufacturing pay suggests real labor tightness is narrowly concentrated, not metro-wide.
Wage growth is losing ground to inflation across the islands.
Statewide weekly wages rose just 1.7% year-over-year while Honolulu-area CPI-U is forecast at 3.8% for 2026, a gap that compresses real purchasing power for nonmetro households with already-lower average wages ($1,190/week in Hawaii County). Consumer spending capacity in these counties is likely weaker than headline employment figures imply.
Median advertised pay by role — HI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $33,555 | $39,520 | $41,600 | Moderate increase | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $30,678 | $37,089 | $38,792 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $35,563 | $42,640 | $45,760 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $51,190 | $65,468 | $68,063 | Significant increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $30,692 | $33,619 | $35,530 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $41,088 | $49,816 | $53,904 | Moderate decline | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $61,950 | $74,172 | $80,294 | Stable | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,894 | $33,925 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $38,350 | $43,516 | $45,760 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $33,462 | $45,073 | $48,734 | Significant increase | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $38,183 | $49,223 | $59,161 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $38,091 | $45,760 | $50,960 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $65,520 | $78,000 | $78,780 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $95,680 | $118,604 | $128,118 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $87,291 | $121,489 | $130,306 | Significant decline | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $100,900 | $110,687 | $123,847 | Significant decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $55,909 | $70,000 | $76,052 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $81,641 | $92,066 | $103,066 | Significant increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $51,758 | $63,000 | $80,000 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $46,759 | $105,500 | $112,500 | Significant increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $66,566 | $138,388 | $138,388 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $56,160 | $64,571 | $64,576 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $49,233 | $75,000 | $87,017 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $91,250 | $95,000 | $103,750 | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $86,573 | $95,131 | $100,000 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $62,400 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $80,790 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $41,600 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $40,794 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Information | $83,650 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $44,392 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $81,758 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $78,561 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $43,480 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $73,581 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Hawaii's nonmetro counties, led by Hawaii County, continue to show tight but softening conditions: the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate eased to 2.5% in September from 2.7% in August even as federal government payrolls fell 8.7% year-over-year, concentrating remaining momentum in healthcare, construction, and tourism-adjacent services. Hawaii County's average weekly wage of $1,190 remains the lowest among the state's counties, and a 34% drop in private building permit value signals that current construction job counts reflect projects already underway rather than new pipeline.
What it means
Government contraction and a stalling construction pipeline point to a local economy running on inherited momentum rather than new investment, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion or capital commitments in the islands' rural counties. Healthcare's steady job gains and wage increases (Registered Nurse advertised pay up significantly to $118,604) suggest the one sector still absorbing labor without competitive pressure from elsewhere, while flat-to-declining pay in construction trades and manufacturing hints at softening demand beneath headline job counts. Current conditions suggest monitoring building-permit activity and federal-contract exposure as leading indicators before treating low unemployment as a signal of broad-based strength.
Looking ahead
Leading indicator: Private building-permit values are down 34% year-to-date even as construction employment holds near 41,200 jobs. Watch whether permit activity stabilizes in Q4 — a continued decline would likely translate into construction job losses by early-to-mid 2027.
Policy-relevant signal: Federal government payrolls fell 8.7% year-over-year statewide; nonmetro counties with disproportionate federal employment (national parks, defense-adjacent roles) may feel this contraction more acutely than Honolulu. Track whether federal RIF or hiring-freeze actions extend into Q4 federal fiscal planning.
Worth watching: Hawaii's overall labor force hit its highest level since December 2019, even as the unemployed count rose to a two-year high. Rising participation alongside rising unemployment can mean more workers are actively testing a thin job market — a signal local economic development groups should track for signs of underemployment.
Emerging pressure point: GDP growth for Hawaii is projected at 1.3% for 2026, roughly half the 2.5% pace seen in 2025. Commerce leaders evaluating investment timing in nonmetro counties should weigh this deceleration against any county-specific tourism or construction rebound before committing capital.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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