Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Honolulu, HI MSA — October 2026
Honolulu's labor force grows faster than its job count.
Honolulu County unemployment hit 3.0% in September — a two-year high — as the labor force grew 1.1% against only 0.4% employment growth, while construction permits fell 34% even as payrolls rose 3.3%.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Honolulu County unemployment rate: 3.0% — Up from 2.9% in Aug.; highest in 2 years
- Labor force vs. employment growth: 1.1% vs 0.4% — Sept 2025–Sept 2026, year-over-year
- Construction permits vs. payrolls: -34% vs +3.3% — Permits down, payrolls up, Jan–Jul 2026
- Statewide nonfarm job growth: +400 jobs (+0.1%) — Year-over-year, Hawaii statewide
Key takeaways
Labor force growth is outpacing job creation across the metro.
Honolulu's labor force expanded 1.1% year-over-year against just 0.4% employment growth, pushing unemployment to a two-year high of 3.0% even as job losses remain limited. This pattern is consistent with cost-of-living pressure drawing more residents into the job search while layoffs stay limited.
Aviation consolidation keeps surfacing in WARN filings and headlines alike.
Alaska Air Group's late-October cuts mark the sixth management reduction round in Hawaii since the Hawaiian Airlines merger, bringing cumulative nonunion WARN notices to 479. The steady cadence suggests continued post-merger restructuring, worth tracking for its ripple effects on professional services demand tied to the airline sector.
Construction's growth numbers mask a weaker investment signal.
Construction payrolls rose 3.3% year-over-year through July, yet private building permits dropped 34% over the same stretch. Current job counts likely reflect projects already underway and carried forward from earlier commitments, a gap that should temper optimism about the sector's forward trajectory.
Software engineering pay is rising sharply while most other roles hold flat.
Metro software engineer advertised pay rose to a median of $165,069, outpacing the national figure and standing out against a broader metro wage picture where most tracked occupations show stable advertised pay. The divergence points to a narrow, high-value segment of economic activity amid otherwise modest wage movement.
Median advertised pay by role — Honolulu, HI MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $33,280 | $37,440 | $40,737 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $30,915 | $35,360 | $37,440 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $35,360 | $41,600 | $44,720 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $46,130 | $58,335 | $62,865 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $32,732 | $37,595 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $38,304 | $48,290 | $52,000 | Moderate decline | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $65,339 | $79,349 | $90,480 | Stable | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,280 | $37,440 | $39,520 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $36,322 | $40,560 | $42,640 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $33,515 | $44,059 | $47,510 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $37,483 | $47,840 | $53,300 | Moderate increase | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $38,847 | $45,760 | $49,920 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $67,600 | $82,950 | $89,440 | Stable | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $95,680 | $119,503 | $131,891 | Stable | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $122,330 | $165,069 | $185,369 | Significant increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $101,450 | $134,401 | $143,439 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $55,551 | $67,787 | $72,516 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $76,813 | $94,791 | $102,417 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $40,093 | $62,153 | $70,000 | Moderate increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $47,319 | $49,020 | $62,500 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $63,517 | $104,892 | $138,388 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $52,949 | $64,571 | $67,310 | Moderate increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $69,831 | $96,142 | $108,124 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $95,000 | $95,000 | $95,000 | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $83,843 | $106,080 | $115,376 | Significant increase | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $77,500 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $112,080 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $43,415 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $49,920 | Moderate increase | Moderate increase |
| Information | $127,006 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $72,617 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Professional & Business Services | $81,752 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $55,120 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,950 | Stable | Moderate decline |
| Government | $75,206 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Honolulu County's unemployment rate climbed to 3.0% in September, up from 2.9% in August and the highest in two years, as the labor force grew 1.1% year-over-year while employment rose only 0.4% — a gap consistent with workers re-entering the job search amid rising cost-of-living pressure, with job availability holding steady. Aviation continued to account for a disproportionate share of layoff activity, with Alaska Air Group cutting roughly 48 Hawaii management positions in late October — the sixth round of post-merger reductions since September 2024 — while leisure and hospitality added 1,000 jobs in the same period, underscoring a metro economy where tourism-adjacent sectors are pulling in different directions simultaneously.
What it means
Rising labor force participation alongside flat employment growth signals more residents are seeking work than the metro economy is currently absorbing, a dynamic commerce leaders should read as softening demand in a labor pool that remains deep. Construction payrolls grew 3.3% year-over-year even as private building permits fell 34%, suggesting current activity reflects a project backlog carrying forward existing commitments — a distinction that matters for anyone gauging the durability of the metro's construction-driven momentum. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders should track permit activity alongside payroll counts before characterizing construction as an expansion story.
Looking ahead
Data gap to monitor: October county-level unemployment figures were delayed by the federal shutdown, leaving a one-month blind spot. Watch for a catch-up release that may show whether September's uptick continued or stabilized.
Emerging pressure point: Aviation-sector WARN activity has recurred every few months since the 2024 merger; a seventh round within the next 60 days would confirm this as an ongoing structural adjustment, relevant for anyone assessing Oahu's professional-services demand.
Early indicator: Private building permit activity, down 34% year-over-year, is a leading signal for construction employment. A continued decline over the next two quarters would suggest the sector's current payroll strength is temporary.
Worth watching: Kauai's unemployment spike to 5.1% following Hurricane Lowell offers a localized test case for how quickly tourism-dependent county economies recover disruption — a bellwether for storm-exposed business districts statewide.
Sources
- Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations / BLS — Honolulu County unemployment rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9%
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Labor force grew 1.1% while employment grew 0.4% year-over-year
- Honolulu Star-Advertiser — Alaska Air Group cut ~48 Hawaii management positions in sixth post-merger round
- Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism — Construction payrolls rose 3.3% while private building permits fell 34%
- Honolulu Star-Advertiser — 479 cumulative WARN notices issued to nonunion Hawaiian Airlines employees since 2024 merger
- Bureau of Labor Statistics / Hawaii DLIR — Kauai County unemployment spiked to 5.1% following Hurricane Lowell
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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