Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: ID NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Rural Idaho's jobless rate rises as workers outpace job growth.
Southwestern Idaho's unemployment rate climbed from 3.3% to 3.5% as labor force growth outpaced job creation, while statewide unemployment held at 3.6% and CDL driver pay locally hit $80,000, above the $78,000 national median.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Idaho statewide unemployment: 3.6% — Unchanged August vs July 2026
- Southwestern Idaho unemployment: 3.5% — Up from 3.3%; labor force outpaced jobs
- Idaho WARN notices, 2026 YTD: 8 notices / 708 workers — vs 3,562 notices nationally as of Sept 26
- Northern Idaho avg. hourly wage: $23.57 — Up from $21.97 a year earlier
Key takeaways
Labor force growth, not job losses, is lifting rural Idaho's jobless rate.
Southwestern Idaho's labor force grew by 1,164 people between July and August while employment rose only 200, pushing unemployment from 3.3% to 3.5%. That pattern signals more workers entering the market faster than local employers are absorbing them, a healthier story than demand destruction but one that still shows up as a rising rate.
Wage momentum is splitting sharply by geography.
Northern Idaho's average hourly wage climbed to $23.57 in July from $21.97 a year earlier, while south-central Idaho posted falling advertised wages and employer counts over the same period. Commerce leaders citing 'Idaho wage growth' in public materials should specify which region they mean.
Truck driver demand signals rural logistics and goods-movement strength.
Truck-driver postings more than doubled year-over-year in northern Idaho, and the metro's CDL driver advertised pay of $80,000 now sits above the national median of $78,000 with significant upward momentum. That combination is consistent with sustained freight and distribution activity feeding the regional economy, not a one-off spike.
State workforce vacancies point to a public-capacity watch item.
State agencies statewide report an 11.2% vacancy rate alongside high turnover, concentrated in healthcare, IT and trades. Persistent public-sector staffing gaps can slow permitting, licensing and service delivery that commerce leaders rely on for business formation and expansion timelines.
Median advertised pay by role — ID NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $24,648 | $31,020 | $33,280 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $24,440 | $29,841 | $32,136 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,063 | $35,063 | $39,400 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,000 | $80,000 | $90,000 | Significant increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $26,491 | $30,025 | $32,622 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $33,280 | $39,520 | $43,680 | Moderate increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $61,490 | $70,773 | $75,301 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,200 | $38,470 | $42,640 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $28,240 | $33,900 | $36,363 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $27,040 | $32,760 | $37,440 | Moderate increase | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,497 | $39,238 | $44,334 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $32,402 | $39,395 | $41,600 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $56,160 | $69,958 | $78,000 | Significant increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $85,210 | $101,793 | $108,735 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $99,663 | $140,826 | $149,561 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $85,975 | $119,828 | $134,476 | Moderate decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $56,138 | $68,442 | $76,153 | Significant increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $71,176 | $83,038 | $83,038 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $50,000 | $57,324 | $68,500 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $48,618 | $54,870 | $67,500 | Moderate increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $51,797 | $77,612 | $77,612 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $43,477 | $56,050 | $61,540 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $60,831 | $90,550 | $100,962 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $70,000 | $70,000 | $70,000 | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $79,137 | $91,747 | $106,125 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $57,200 | Moderate increase | Moderate increase |
| Manufacturing | $80,000 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $40,040 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $43,992 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Information | $77,149 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $50,000 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Professional & Business Services | $77,718 | Significant increase | Moderate decline |
| Education & Health Services | $53,959 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $32,289 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $66,907 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Rural Idaho's labor market cooled modestly in August as unemployment held at a low 3.6% statewide even as labor-force growth outpaced job creation across several regions, pushing unemployment up in southwestern (3.3% to 3.5%), eastern (to 3.6%) and southeastern (to 3.8%) areas. Healthcare, transportation and trades postings remain the clearest demand signals in nonmetro counties, while south-central Idaho saw postings, employer counts and advertised wages all decline year-over-year, pointing to geographically uneven momentum rather than a uniform slowdown.
What it means
Divergence between southwestern Idaho's posting strength and south-central's wage and demand softening means local business-climate assessments should be drawn county-by-county rather than from a single statewide read. Public-sector stability appears intact for now, but state agency vacancy rates above 11% alongside national government payroll losses suggest public-service capacity bears watching as a constraint on regional economic infrastructure. Civic and commerce leaders should consider tracking regional unemployment and posting-volume divergence separately from statewide averages when briefing on local investment or expansion conditions.
Looking ahead
Expected data release: September state and metro employment figures publish October 20, which will show whether southwestern Idaho's labor-force-outpacing-employment pattern persisted or reversed. Treat any single month's unemployment uptick cautiously until that release confirms the trend.
Worth watching: South-central Idaho's falling advertised wages and postings diverge from the rest of the state; a second consecutive month of decline would sharpen the case that labor demand is softening there specifically rather than statewide.
Early indicator: National WARN filings rose to 3,562 notices covering 313,234 workers as of late September, though Idaho itself logged only 8 notices and 708 affected workers in 2026, with layoff pace slowing in the last 90 days. A material uptick in Idaho filings would be a meaningful break from this trend.
Potential inflection point: National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation in September, eroding real purchasing power for the first time in two years. If that national pattern reaches Idaho's advertised-wage data, it would pressure consumer spending in retail and services-heavy rural communities.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.