Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: IN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Indiana's jobless rate rises as workforce shrinks.
Indiana unemployment climbed to 3.4% in September — the first increase since 2024 — as the labor force contracted by 18,900 workers, while county-level readings ranged from 2.7% in Wells County to 4.9% in the Evansville MSA.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Indiana unemployment rate: 3.4% — Up from 3.3%; first rise since Aug. 2024
- Statewide labor force change: -18,900 — Year-over-year; employed residents fell 8,800
- Indiana labor force participation: 63.1% — vs 61.8% national rate
- Open job ads statewide: 106,223 — As of Sept. 30, 2026; job ads signal hiring demand and one ad often covers several openings
Key takeaways
Falling unemployment signals a shrinking labor pool.
Indiana's labor force shrank by 18,900 over the year while employment fell by 8,800 — the state's 3.4% rate masks fewer residents working or looking for work even as demand for workers continues. Commerce leaders citing low unemployment as an investment pitch should pair it with participation data to avoid overstating local labor availability.
County-level divergence complicates any single regional narrative.
Economic Growth Region 2 counties improved to 3.8% unemployment while Evansville MSA climbed to 4.9%, and Lake County sits at 4.8% against Wells County's 2.7%. A single nonmetropolitan-area headline figure likely obscures meaningful variation that matters for site-selection and workforce-development conversations.
Manufacturing and healthcare are carrying the region's job growth.
Statewide private job gains concentrated in Education & Health Services (+3,700) and Manufacturing (+3,500) between August and September, consistent with national patterns. Construction employment has grown 37% over the past decade statewide, suggesting a parallel, longer-running capacity story worth tracking alongside these two leading sectors.
Wage-vs-inflation data remains a visible gap for this metro.
No October state or regional wage-growth figures have been released, leaving commerce leaders without a current read on whether local pay is keeping pace with the national CPI gap (1.5% wage growth against 3.5% inflation nationally in Q3). That data void itself is a planning constraint worth flagging to local economic-development stakeholders awaiting the next BLS wage release.
Median advertised pay by role — IN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $20,549 | $25,548 | $29,120 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $23,289 | $26,000 | $27,804 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,142 | $35,360 | $38,545 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,755 | $76,607 | $86,271 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $26,847 | $30,692 | $33,511 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $34,320 | $40,560 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $59,982 | $70,720 | $74,245 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $34,160 | $38,672 | $43,680 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $32,138 | $37,440 | $40,185 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $27,040 | $29,100 | $31,668 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,280 | $36,400 | $39,520 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,871 | $39,102 | $42,640 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $46,000 | $60,684 | $70,899 | Significant decline | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $78,520 | $89,359 | $98,000 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $99,025 | $118,138 | $135,911 | Moderate decline | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $89,883 | $108,965 | $123,474 | Significant decline | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $53,061 | $65,629 | $72,022 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $66,943 | $79,115 | $87,967 | Moderate decline | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $55,659 | $69,490 | $77,014 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $38,114 | $50,377 | $60,466 | Moderate decline | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $77,596 | $83,253 | $92,092 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $31,200 | $49,172 | $55,000 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $34,793 | $62,501 | $74,507 | Significant decline | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $64,250 | $67,500 | $83,285 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $81,037 | $106,603 | $106,603 | Significant increase | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $57,393 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $71,000 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $38,545 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $61,136 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $86,850 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $52,523 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $47,840 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $53,852 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,200 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $65,155 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Indiana's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.4% in September, its first increase since August 2024, and the state's labor force shrank by roughly 18,900 workers over the year — a contraction that appears to reflect demographic and participation pressures. Nonmetropolitan counties feeding into this region show mixed signals, with Economic Growth Region 2 (Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, Marshall, St. Joseph) improving to 3.8% unemployment while Evansville MSA drifted up to 4.9%, suggesting momentum varies meaningfully by county even as statewide job ads — a signal of hiring demand, since one ad often covers several openings — remain elevated at over 106,000.
What it means
Labor force contraction alongside low unemployment points to a tightening local labor supply that constrains business expansion plans independent of demand conditions, a dynamic commerce leaders should distinguish from a weakening economy. Manufacturing's statewide gain of 3,500 jobs and healthcare's 3,700-job gain in August-September suggest these two sectors are absorbing available workers first, which may leave other local employers competing for a shrinking pool. Current conditions suggest economic development officials should track county-level participation trends alongside unemployment, since a falling rate driven by workforce exit tells a different story than one driven by job growth.
Looking ahead
Expected release: Complete October 2026 BLS employment and unemployment data for Indiana counties and MSAs are scheduled for release November 20-23. That report will show whether September's uptick to 3.4% continues or reverses, clarifying whether the labor force contraction is a one-month blip or a trend.
Worth watching: Evansville MSA's unemployment rise to 4.9% from 4.7% bears monitoring for whether it reflects a broader southern-Indiana softening or a localized adjustment, since it runs counter to the modest improvement seen in Economic Growth Region 2.
Emerging pressure point: Indiana's 2026 WARN filings (28 notices, 4,208 workers) are down 11% from 2025, concentrated in manufacturing, transportation/logistics, and food/hospitality. Watch whether nonmetropolitan counties see any new filings join American Woodmark's October notice in Gas City, which would test whether layoff activity is stabilizing or simply delayed.
Potential inflection point: CPI data due November 10 will determine whether the national wage-inflation gap (1.5% wage growth vs 3.5% inflation) is narrowing or widening, a dynamic that shapes household purchasing power and local retail/consumer spending across the metro regardless of sector.
Sources
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Indiana unemployment rose to 3.4% in September, first increase since Aug. 2024
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Labor force shrank 18,900, employed residents fell 8,800 year-over-year
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Economic Growth Region 2 unemployment improved to 3.8% from 3.9%
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Evansville MSA unemployment rose to 4.9% from 4.7%
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Indiana construction employment grew 37% over the past decade
- Indiana Department of Workforce Development — Indiana 2026 WARN notices down 11% from 2025, 4,208 workers affected
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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