Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Johnson City, TN MSA — September 2026
Johnson City holds steady as national hiring cools
Johnson City's 3.7% unemployment rate continues to run well below the national 4.2% reading, even as local pay diverges sharply between a strengthening healthcare sector and softening food service and logistics wages.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 3.7% — vs. 4.2% national, 3.5% Tennessee
- National payroll growth: 29,000 jobs — September, below 45,000 12-mo average
- National wage vs. inflation gap: 3.0% vs 3.4% — Weakest real-wage reading since May 2021
- Local labor force: 99.1 thousand — Essentially flat vs. July 2025
Key takeaways
Johnson City's labor market looks tighter than the nation's, not looser.
A 3.7% local unemployment rate sits well under the 4.2% national figure and Tennessee's 3.5% state rate, suggesting the metro has not absorbed the national hiring slowdown reported for September. That gap is worth flagging to press or officials citing national headlines as a proxy for local conditions.
Healthcare wage strength is carrying the metro's pay story.
Registered nurse pay rose significantly to a $92,805 local median, tracking the sector's national momentum (healthcare added 17,000 jobs nationally in September) and Tennessee's statewide healthcare job gains over the past year. This concentration suggests the metro's wage growth narrative is sector-specific rather than broad-based.
Consumer-facing and logistics pay is quietly eroding.
Food service pay fell significantly and warehouse, delivery driver, and home health aide pay all declined moderately in the local market even as national figures for these roles held stable. That local-only softening is consistent with thinner consumer spending momentum locally, a signal relevant to retail and hospitality-dependent commercial corridors.
Public-sector and professional-services pay offer a steadier signal.
Teacher pay rose significantly and financial analyst and operations manager pay rose moderately-to-significantly in the local market, bucking the national pattern of government and finance payroll softness. That contrast may reflect localized public investment and professional-services demand distinct from national-level trends.
Median advertised pay by role — Johnson City, TN MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,896 | $26,621 | $29,640 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,525 | $24,960 | $26,000 | Moderate increase | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,823 | $35,117 | $35,360 | Moderate decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $54,977 | $78,000 | $92,690 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $25,741 | $32,264 | $35,201 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,506 | $34,265 | $35,969 | Moderate increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $43,680 | $56,286 | $63,623 | Stable | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,572 | $36,608 | $39,520 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,977 | $35,360 | $37,158 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $26,332 | $27,434 | $28,547 | Significant decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,875 | $34,320 | $37,353 | Moderate decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $29,276 | $35,378 | $39,520 | Moderate increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $52,000 | $55,944 | $55,945 | Stable | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $75,480 | $92,805 | $102,232 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer * | $108,343 | $145,080 | $162,168 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $90,330 | $129,576 | $144,120 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $55,000 | $60,000 | $67,921 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $59,307 | $72,795 | $74,123 | Significant increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $50,294 | $58,382 | $58,570 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $45,639 | $60,000 | $70,563 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $63,010 | $77,938 | $85,000 | Moderate increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $28,190 | $48,393 | $52,780 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $49,500 | $75,000 | $82,279 | Stable | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $50,835 | $66,854 | $73,610 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $76,649 | $95,462 | $106,400 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $52,936 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $71,999 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $32,581 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $68,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $56,286 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $42,820 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $47,603 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $62,303 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,946 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $63,314 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Johnson City's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in July 2026, roughly 50 basis points below the national rate of 4.2% reported for September, reflecting a labor force of 99.1 thousand that has stayed essentially flat year-over-year. Local wage movement is mixed across the basket — registered nurse pay climbed significantly while food service, warehouse, and home health aide pay softened, a pattern consistent with Tennessee's broader split between resilient healthcare demand and cooling lower-wage service activity.
What it means
Divergent wage movement across the local basket — strength in nursing and financial analysis against softness in food service, warehouse, and caregiving pay — signals a two-speed metro economy where skilled health and professional services continue attracting investment while consumer-facing and logistics segments lose pricing power. For commerce leaders and economic development officials, this suggests expansion or relocation decisions tied to healthcare, finance, or skilled trades carry more tailwind locally than those tied to retail, warehousing, or food service footprints. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-specific wage trends before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business climate strength.
Looking ahead
Expected data release: BLS September 2026 metro-level employment data for Johnson City is due in October; watch whether the 3.7% unemployment rate holds or drifts toward the national 4.2% reading, which would mark a meaningful shift in the metro's relative position.
Worth watching: Tennessee recorded 98 WARN filings over 24 months concentrated in manufacturing, transportation, and healthcare; no Johnson City MSA-specific WARN activity has surfaced yet, but regional filings — including the Nashville TikTok office closure — bear monitoring for any Tri-Cities spillover.
Emerging pressure point: National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. If that national erosion reaches the Johnson City basket, already-softening food service and warehouse pay could extend further, with implications for local consumer spending.
Potential inflection point: Tennessee's statewide job growth has cooled sharply, from a historical 60,000-per-year average to a projected 31,400 for 2026, with Nashville capturing most of the gains. Economic development officials should watch whether Johnson City's relative labor-market tightness reflects durable strength or simply a smaller, slower-moving labor pool.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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