Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA MSA — September 2026
Kingsport labor market cools modestly as sectors diverge
Metro unemployment edged up to 4.0% in June against a steady 3.4% statewide rate, with CDL and home-health pay declining even as registered nurse pay climbed sharply.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 4.0% — June 2026, up from 3.3% in April-May
- Tennessee unemployment rate: 3.4% — Steady in August, vs 4.1% national rate
- Metro manufacturing employment: 20.7K jobs — May 2026, vs statewide manufacturing contraction
- National WARN-affected workers: 313,234 — Across 3,562 filings as of Sept 26, 2026
Key takeaways
Metro unemployment uptick looks cyclical, not structural.
Kingsport-Bristol's rise from 3.3% to 4.0% between spring and June 2026 still sits below the 4.1% national rate, and arrives alongside statewide county-level readings mostly under 5%. Early softening bears watching but does not yet separate this metro from Tennessee's broader resilience.
Trucking and home health pay declines signal sector-specific strain, not broad weakness.
CDL driver pay fell moderately and CNA/home health aide pay dropped moderately even as registered nurse pay rose significantly, pointing to a split within the same care and logistics ecosystem rather than a uniform downturn. Watch whether this divergence tracks national freight softness or reflects something more local to Sullivan County's logistics base.
Manufacturing production worker pay rising bucks a national plateau.
Metro manufacturing assembler pay moved up moderately while the national figure held flat, even as Tennessee's statewide manufacturing employment contracted slightly. That combination is consistent with employers competing for a shrinking pool of production workers locally, a signal relevant to any economic-development pitch built around manufacturing capacity.
Public-sector and healthcare wage strength offers a stabilizing counterweight.
Registered nurse and teacher pay both rose significantly in the metro, consistent with Tennessee's statewide pattern of healthcare leading job creation over the past year. For a metro economy exposed to goods-movement softness, durable public and health-sector wage growth is a meaningful ballast.
Median advertised pay by role — Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $23,055 | $26,895 | $28,288 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,819 | $25,415 | $27,321 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,499 | $39,520 | $39,520 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $53,740 | $79,593 | $88,000 | Moderate decline | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $26,353 | $33,380 | $35,756 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,622 | $37,107 | $43,368 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $55,630 | $66,483 | $68,692 | Moderate increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,421 | $35,776 | $35,908 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $32,146 | $35,360 | $35,360 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $26,433 | $29,120 | $29,120 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,206 | $34,320 | $38,480 | Moderate decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,200 | $36,670 | $42,000 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician * | $55,487 | $64,347 | $67,600 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $79,942 | $98,870 | $105,363 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer * | $108,343 | $145,080 | $162,168 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $90,330 | $129,576 | $144,120 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $49,459 | $61,758 | $67,500 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $66,841 | $73,999 | $75,882 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $55,000 | $61,333 | $64,070 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $60,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 | Moderate decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $63,010 | $77,938 | $85,000 | Moderate increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $28,817 | $48,099 | $52,987 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $31,512 | $73,761 | $92,710 | Significant decline | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $50,835 | $66,854 | $73,610 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $76,649 | $95,462 | $106,400 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $55,382 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $60,892 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $33,280 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $67,112 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $42,328 | Significant decline | Stable |
| Financial Activities | $43,711 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $45,760 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $66,330 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,270 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $67,475 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Kingsport-Bristol MSA unemployment ticked up to 4.0% in June 2026 from 3.3% in April-May, tracking slightly above Tennessee's 3.4% statewide rate even as 89 of 95 Tennessee counties held readings below 5% in July. Manufacturing (20.7 thousand jobs) and trade/transportation (24.0 thousand) remain the metro's employment anchors, while CDL driver pay slipped and CNA/home health pay declined, pointing to softening demand signals in goods-movement and direct-care segments even as healthcare employment drove Tennessee's strongest statewide job gains over the past year.
What it means
Modest upward drift in metro unemployment, paired with wage softness in trucking and home health, is consistent with a local economy cooling from a tight-labor baseline rather than one in distress — a pattern commerce leaders should read as stabilization, not alarm. Public-sector and healthcare payrolls have been the most reliable statewide growth engines even as national government employment contracts, suggesting the metro's institutional and hospital-system base offers more near-term stability than its logistics and manufacturing exposure. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leadership evaluate how much of the region's 2026 momentum depends on trucking, warehousing, and manufacturing wage trends relative to the more insulated healthcare and public-sector base.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether the Kingsport-Bristol unemployment rate continues drifting upward in the next BLS metro release (expected with the usual one-to-two month lag) or reverses toward the sub-3.5% range seen earlier in 2026.
Emerging pressure point: CDL driver and HVAC technician pay both moved down moderately this month; track whether this reflects softening freight and construction demand locally or a broader Southeast regional pattern tied to tariff-affected goods movement.
Worth watching: Tennessee's statewide health and education employment growth flattened to 0.2% year-over-year from 3.3% in 2024 — a trend that, if it reaches Kingsport's hospital and school systems, would remove one of the metro's more stable payroll bases.
Potential inflection point: National WARN filings remain elevated (3,562 notices, 313,234 workers as of late September) with manufacturing and transportation leading Tennessee's own WARN activity; any new filing touching Sullivan County's manufacturing or logistics employers would be the clearest local test of whether national softening is reaching this metro.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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