Labor Market Pulse · Restaurant Industry · October 2026
Restaurant Industry Labor Market Report: Lawrence, KS MSA — October 2026
Lawrence restaurant pay splits: crew gains, supervisors flatten.
Crew advertised pay rose to $28,080 in Lawrence even as Assistant Manager pay fell to $36,097 and Douglas County unemployment ticked up to 4.2% in July.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Douglas County unemployment: 4.2% — Up from 3.6% metro rate in May 2026
- Kansas vs Missouri minimum wage: $7.25 vs $15.00 — Kansas frozen since 2010; Missouri sets regional floor
- Cook vs waiter job growth projection: 12% vs 2% — BLS 2025-2035 national projection
- Restaurant annual turnover rate: ~80% — Up from ~72% pre-pandemic, national
Key takeaways
Crew pay climbs while supervisory tiers go flat or soften.
Crew advertised pay rose moderately to $28,080 even as Assistant Restaurant Manager ($36,097) and Shift Manager ($31,157) both declined locally. This compression narrows the pay gap between entry-level and first-line supervisory roles, which may weaken the incentive to accept promotion into management.
Kansas's frozen minimum wage is a Missouri-border problem with concrete stakes.
Missouri's $15.00 state floor sits more than double Kansas's statutory $7.25, and Lawrence sits close enough to that border that candidates can compare offers across state lines. Operators relying on statutory minimums over market-set advertised rates risk losing entry-level applicants to competing labor markets.
The 80/20 rule repeal changes the tipped-wage math for slower shifts.
DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 threshold lets operators pay the $2.13 tipped rate for side work like stocking and cleaning without the prior 20% cap, reducing direct wage obligations during low-cover periods. Front-of-house total compensation planning should account for this shift when modeling labor cost as a share of revenue during shoulder hours.
Cook scarcity is becoming the structural constraint on growth plans.
National data shows cooks projected to grow 12% through 2035 against just 2% for waiters, and Line Cook pay in Lawrence has held flat at $33,194 despite that demand signal. Flat pay against rising structural demand may suggest operators are absorbing turnover costs ahead of repricing the role, a gap worth testing against fill-time data.
Median advertised pay by role — Lawrence, KS MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assistant Restaurant Manager | $27,070 | $36,097 | $40,481 | Moderate decline | $39,211 |
| Catering Manager | $48,133 | $48,308 | $48,308 | Moderate increase | $50,076 |
| Crew | $25,675 | $28,080 | $30,089 | Moderate increase | $30,066 |
| Line Cook | $29,622 | $33,194 | $34,351 | Stable | $37,421 |
| Restaurant Manager/General Manager | $56,068 | $64,161 | $75,489 | Stable | $59,724 |
| Server | $28,993 | $30,886 | $34,826 | Stable | $35,024 |
| Shift Manager | $28,080 | $31,157 | $32,979 | Moderate decline | $33,024 |
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Local market conditions
Douglas County unemployment ticked up to 4.2% in July against a 3.6% metro reading in May, a modest softening that tracks the statewide pattern of flat-to-declining nonfarm payrolls, even as Kansas wage growth of 2.8% year-over-year signals continued competition for workers. Restaurant operators in Lawrence operate against a frozen $7.25 state minimum wage while neighboring Missouri's $15.00 floor keeps upward pressure on recruiting pay for entry-level and tipped roles near the state line.
What it means
Wage compression against Missouri, combined with national turnover near 80% and a cooks-versus-servers growth gap (BLS projects 12% cook growth versus 2% for waiters through 2035), means Lawrence operators face a binding back-of-house staffing constraint that is narrower than a broad labor shortage. Metro data shows Crew pay up moderately to $28,080 while Assistant Manager and Shift Manager advertised pay have both softened — a signal that operators are directing scarce wage dollars toward frontline retention ahead of management layers. Consider reviewing whether BOH compensation and scheduling incentives are competitive enough to retain cooks specifically, even if overall FOH recruiting appears adequately staffed.
Looking ahead
Expected release: KDOL publishes the October 2026 Kansas Labor Report on November 20, the first chance to confirm whether the September statewide payroll dip (-2,100 nonfarm jobs) extended into Lawrence's hospitality sector specifically.
Worth watching: Metro-level BLS unemployment data for October won't post until December 2, leaving a reporting gap; operators should treat July's 4.2% Douglas County rate as the latest confirmed signal of labor supply loosening.
Emerging pressure point: Douglas County's 3.4% market pay pool for public-sector salary adjustments, approved to address retention, sets a visible local benchmark that private restaurant employers may need to match or exceed to stay competitive for shared labor pools like students and part-time workers.
Policy signal: Watch whether other states follow Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in dropping 80/20/30 tipped-wage enforcement; a broader rollback would further reduce effective FOH labor costs but could also reopen pay equity scrutiny around subminimum wage practices.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics / Kansas Dept of Labor — Douglas County unemployment at 4.2% in July 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Cooks projected to grow 12% vs 2% for waiters through 2035
- Kansas Department of Labor / Missouri Dept of Labor — Kansas minimum wage frozen at $7.25 vs Missouri's $15.00
- U.S. Department of Labor — DOL withdrew 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026
- Douglas County Commission — Douglas County approved 3.4% market pay pool for county employees
- National Restaurant Association — Restaurant annual turnover near 80%, up from 72% pre-pandemic
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.