Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA — September 2026
Twin Cities jobless rate climbs as workforce shrinks, not demand
Minneapolis-St. Paul unemployment reached 4.7% in August against a 4.1% national rate, even as statewide labor force participation fell to 66.9% -- a sign the metro's challenge is shrinking labor supply, not weakening demand.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 4.7% — vs 4.4% Minnesota, 4.1% U.S. (August 2026)
- MN labor force participation: 66.9% — Down from 68.1% a year ago, falling every month
- Metro average weekly wage: $1,747 — vs $1,654 U.S. average (Q1 2026)
- Minnesota WARN-affected workers: 1,473 — Down 69% from 2025 pace
Key takeaways
Metro jobless rate outpaces state and nation, but supply is the real constraint.
Minneapolis-St. Paul's 4.7% unemployment rate sits above Minnesota's 4.4% and the U.S. 4.1%, yet labor force participation has fallen every month in 2026 to 66.9%. A rising jobless rate alongside shrinking participation suggests fewer available workers rather than weaker demand -- a distinction that matters for anyone assessing local business capacity.
Public-sector payrolls are doing more of the region's heavy lifting.
Minnesota's public sector added jobs at a 9% annual clip even as finance (-3.1%) and information (-4.1%) employment contracted statewide. Government payroll stability is currently offsetting weakness in higher-wage private sectors, a pattern worth tracking as a gauge of overall regional income stability.
Metro wages still beat the national average, but the gap is not widening.
Average weekly wages of $1,747 in the metro remain above the $1,654 national figure, and private-sector compensation costs grew 3.8% year-over-year locally versus 3.3% nationally through late 2025. Momentum has flattened alongside slowing job growth, suggesting the metro's wage advantage is holding rather than accelerating.
Immigration enforcement's labor-supply effect looks structural, not temporary.
DEED's commissioner has directly tied declining labor force participation to enforcement actions that left immigrant workers hesitant to work or shop, compounding an already aging workforce. Bare participation data -- not policy commentary -- shows the trend has persisted through every month of 2026, a fact relevant to any assessment of local labor supply over the next year.
Median advertised pay by role — Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $28,607 | $34,320 | $38,428 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $29,120 | $33,800 | $35,566 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $36,345 | $42,640 | $45,438 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,502 | $70,000 | $83,200 | Moderate decline | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,492 | $37,281 | $44,000 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $38,391 | $45,000 | $49,831 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $73,691 | $95,181 | $99,755 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $37,700 | $43,680 | $45,760 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $37,440 | $43,892 | $49,054 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $31,180 | $37,440 | $39,847 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $39,520 | $45,656 | $48,537 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $39,520 | $48,880 | $54,867 | Moderate increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $62,400 | $73,867 | $80,066 | Moderate increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $88,978 | $105,790 | $118,348 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $111,993 | $140,000 | $156,000 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $92,032 | $129,605 | $143,323 | Stable | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $63,058 | $75,000 | $83,802 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $77,924 | $97,399 | $104,082 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $63,905 | $74,994 | $80,000 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $59,848 | $75,151 | $87,251 | Moderate increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $67,000 | $94,332 | $97,330 | Stable | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $40,560 | $56,214 | $64,935 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $65,000 | $94,178 | $113,691 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | $62,400 | $89,169 | $89,169 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $82,324 | $101,192 | $109,750 | Moderate decline | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $67,600 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $100,208 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $40,560 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $65,520 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Information | $129,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $97,950 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $72,800 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $52,332 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,440 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $71,246 | Significant increase | Moderate decline |
Local market conditions
Minneapolis-St. Paul metro unemployment climbed to 4.7% in August, running above both the Minnesota statewide rate of 4.4% and the national rate of 4.1%, even as average weekly wages of $1,747 continue to outpace the U.S. average of $1,654. Statewide labor force participation has declined every month this year to 66.9%, a drop DEED's commissioner links to an aging workforce and a chilling effect on immigrant labor participation following stepped-up immigration enforcement earlier in the year.
What it means
Metro-level unemployment running half a point above the national rate, paired with a shrinking labor pool, points to a local economy where available workers are harder to find even as overall demand cools -- a combination that complicates both public-sector workforce planning and private investment timing. Sector divergence matters here: finance and information employment are contracting locally while public-sector payrolls grew 9% year over year, suggesting government hiring is currently a stabilizing force for the regional economy rather than a drag. Commerce leaders evaluating local expansion or investment timing should weigh this labor-supply tightening against the softer overall demand signal, rather than reading the higher jobless rate alone as economic weakness.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Minnesota's labor force participation has declined for eight consecutive months; a stabilization or further drop in the next two reports will clarify whether the trend is leveling off or continuing to erode the available local workforce.
Emerging pressure point: Finance and information sectors have shed jobs locally and statewide for multiple consecutive months. Watch whether these losses spread to other white-collar segments or remain contained, as that will shape expectations for office-sector commercial activity in the metro.
Potential inflection point: National September payroll growth of just 29,000 with downward revisions to July and August suggests cooling momentum entering the fourth quarter; a comparable slowdown in Minnesota's October DEED report would confirm the metro is tracking the national deceleration rather than diverging from it.
Early indicator: Minnesota WARN notices affected 1,473 workers through 2026, down 69% from last year's pace -- a historically low layoff signal. Any uptick in metro-specific filings over the next two months would be a meaningful departure from this otherwise stable pattern.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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