Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Missoula, MT MSA — October 2026
Missoula's low jobless rate hides a flat jobs engine.
Missoula County unemployment sits at a tight 2.3%, but countywide employment slipped and Montana shed 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year — the state's first annual decline since 2020.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Missoula County unemployment: 2.3% — Sept. 2026, vs. 3.1% statewide, 4.1% national
- Montana annual job change: -5,300 jobs — First annual statewide decline since 2020
- Missoula hospitality job loss: -440 positions — June 2024 to June 2025, metro-wide
- Montana labor force participation: 62.6% — Down from 63.1% a year earlier
Key takeaways
Low unemployment is masking a stalled jobs engine.
Missoula's 2.3% jobless rate looks strong against the 4.1% national figure, but countywide employment actually slipped by 9 jobs in September and Montana lost 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year — the first annual decline since 2020. A tight labor market and a growing one are separate signals, and conflating them risks overstating local economic momentum.
Healthcare and tech wages are carrying the metro's wage story.
Registered nurse pay rose to a metro median of $110,084 and financial analyst pay jumped to $127,500, both outpacing national medians, while Montana's information/tech sector grew 28% statewide in 2025. These gains concentrate economic lift in specific sectors while leaving the broader wage base lifted unevenly.
Hospitality's pullback is a sustained drag on local commerce.
Missoula hospitality shed about 440 positions between June 2024 and June 2025, consistent with statewide softness in accommodation and food service. Given tourism's role in the local economy, sustained hospitality contraction is worth tracking as a leading indicator for consumer-facing retail and services.
Metro tech and professional-services pay is cooling even as the sector grows nationally.
Software engineer advertised pay fell significantly to a metro median of $121,936 against a stable national figure of $154,403, and business analyst pay dropped to $75,773 locally. The divergence suggests Missoula's tech/professional base, while expanding in headcount per state data, commands a lower wage premium than the national market.
Median advertised pay by role — Missoula, MT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $28,074 | $34,164 | $37,440 | Moderate increase | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $27,674 | $32,667 | $35,360 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,634 | $39,520 | $41,600 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,121 | $78,839 | $91,000 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,973 | $37,651 | $43,680 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $39,000 | $41,600 | $48,100 | Moderate decline | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $61,428 | $69,839 | $78,302 | Stable | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $34,083 | $36,247 | $37,159 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $35,334 | $37,440 | $42,416 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $34,868 | $37,292 | $37,960 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $39,520 | $44,814 | $46,067 | Moderate increase | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $37,440 | $42,064 | $46,583 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $69,960 | $81,120 | $82,680 | Stable | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $91,614 | $110,084 | $117,048 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $105,528 | $121,936 | $140,000 | Significant decline | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $80,571 | $95,767 | $112,847 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $55,405 | $62,345 | $65,598 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $82,656 | $127,500 | $127,500 | Significant increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager * | $51,646 | $79,898 | $84,212 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $43,369 | $57,507 | $70,608 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $59,421 | $96,406 | $108,811 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $34,787 | $48,353 | $53,784 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $56,418 | $80,978 | $95,681 | Moderate decline | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $52,815 | $65,501 | $70,938 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $63,064 | $75,773 | $82,195 | Significant decline | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $59,753 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $53,352 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $36,400 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $48,050 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $63,931 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $60,232 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $81,970 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $98,791 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $33,302 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $61,873 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Missoula County's unemployment rate held at 2.3% in September, well below both the state's 3.1% and the national 4.1%, even as countywide employment edged down by 9 jobs and Montana posted its first annual job loss since 2020 (-5,300 jobs statewide). Local wage gains in healthcare, professional services and tech are offsetting a continued hospitality contraction — the sector shed roughly 440 positions metro-wide between June 2024 and June 2025 — producing a labor market that is tight on paper but largely static in actual job creation.
What it means
Missoula's sub-3% jobless rate signals a metro operating near full employment, but flat payroll growth and Montana's statewide job decline suggest the tightness reflects limited labor supply amid flat business activity — a distinction that matters for anyone gauging whether now is the time to expand locally. Advertised pay gains in registered nursing, financial analysis and operations management point to where local economic value is concentrating, while declines in software engineering and business analyst pay hint at softening demand in metro tech and professional services. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should weigh labor-force participation and sector mix alongside the headline unemployment rate before characterizing the local economy as expanding.
Looking ahead
Expected data release: Montana's October Labor Market Information report, including updated Missoula County figures, publishes November 20. That release will show whether September's slight employment dip was a one-month blip or the start of a trend.
Worth watching: Montana's labor-force participation rate fell to 62.6% in October from 63.1% a year earlier. A continued decline in Missoula specifically would suggest workforce attachment erosion independent of the unemployment rate, a distinction economic development officials should track separately.
Emerging pressure point: Hospitality and food service losses have persisted for over a year; watch whether winter tourism season (ski, holiday travel) stabilizes or further erodes accommodation and food-service headcount, given the sector's weight in Missoula's consumer economy.
Potential inflection point: Statewide minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, from $10.85. Retail and food-service advertised pay in Missoula, already near or above that floor, bears watching for whether the increase compresses wage differentials across entry-level roles.
Sources
- Montana Department of Labor and Industry — Missoula County unemployment rate at 2.3% in September 2026
- Missoula Current / MATR — Montana lost 5,300 jobs over the past year, first annual decline since 2020
- NBC Montana — Missoula hospitality sector lost ~440 positions June 2024-June 2025
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Montana labor force participation fell to 62.6% from 63.1% year-over-year
- Montana Department of Labor and Industry — Montana minimum wage rises to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027
- Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) — Montana information/tech jobs grew 28% in 2025
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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