Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: MO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Nonmetro Missouri unemployment ranges from 2.9% to 6.2% by county.
County unemployment in nonmetropolitan Missouri spans from 2.9% in Atchison County to 6.2% in Mississippi County, while October's statewide data collection gap leaves no fresh read on whether that divergence is widening.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Nonmetro county unemployment range: 2.9%–6.2% — Atchison County vs. Mississippi County, Aug. 2026
- Prime-age labor force participation gap: 78% vs 86% — Nonmetro vs metro Missouri counties
- Missouri statewide unemployment: 3.6% — Sept. 2026, vs 4.1% national rate
- October data availability: No release — Statewide/nonmetro Oct. 2026 collection failed
Key takeaways
County-level unemployment swings undercut any single statewide narrative.
A 3.3-point spread between Atchison County (2.9%) and Mississippi County (6.2%) means state and national unemployment figures mask real differences in local labor availability. Commerce leaders making investment or expansion decisions in nonmetro Missouri should weight county-specific data over statewide averages.
Participation gap between metro and nonmetro Missouri looks structural.
Nonmetro prime-age participation (78%) trails metro Missouri (86%) by eight points, a gap researchers tie to limited childcare capacity as a structural factor. That suggests labor supply constraints in nonmetro counties will persist regardless of near-term wage or demand shifts.
Advertised pay gains in skilled trades outpace broader nonmetro wage trends.
Electrician ($68,006) and HVAC technician ($67,600) advertised pay both posted significant local increases, consistent with national patterns in skilled trades. That divergence from flatter advertised pay in retail and logistics roles signals uneven wage pressure across the local economy.
October's statewide data gap is itself a signal worth flagging.
Missouri's September payroll loss of 10,600 jobs and the absence of any October nonmetro unemployment release leave a reporting gap during a month when metro-level divergence (St. Louis +3,400, Kansas City -4,200) was already widening. Economists and press should treat near-term state-level trend claims with added caution until data collection resumes.
Median advertised pay by role — MO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $24,534 | $28,381 | $31,908 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,034 | $28,947 | $31,720 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,587 | $37,440 | $39,520 | Moderate increase | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $61,574 | $79,300 | $88,114 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,553 | $31,155 | $33,574 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,560 | $37,440 | $40,586 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $58,240 | $68,006 | $71,595 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $32,381 | $36,493 | $39,520 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $31,702 | $36,876 | $39,478 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $28,359 | $33,280 | $35,360 | Moderate increase | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,322 | $38,437 | $41,600 | Moderate increase | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,200 | $37,211 | $39,520 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $56,816 | $67,600 | $78,520 | Significant increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $81,327 | $95,006 | $105,873 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $108,314 | $142,296 | $161,200 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $89,644 | $112,689 | $143,589 | Moderate decline | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $53,569 | $61,868 | $67,381 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $68,872 | $90,000 | $98,861 | Moderate decline | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $49,456 | $60,578 | $71,936 | Moderate decline | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $55,000 | $65,600 | $70,000 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $66,901 | $80,684 | $87,686 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $31,596 | $49,006 | $54,043 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $57,652 | $91,437 | $113,501 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $70,000 | $81,594 | $103,119 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $76,996 | $93,772 | $101,661 | Moderate decline | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $57,200 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $82,813 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $36,417 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $64,711 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $131,633 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $72,723 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $57,200 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $52,061 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,913 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $61,700 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nonmetropolitan Missouri labor markets diverge sharply by county this month, with unemployment ranging from 2.9% in Atchison County to 6.2% in Mississippi County, a spread that reflects structural differences in industry mix across the state. Prime-age labor force participation in nonmetro counties sits at 78%, well below the 86% rate in metro Missouri counties, a gap University of Missouri Extension research links partly to limited childcare capacity — fewer than three slots per ten children under age five.
What it means
County-level unemployment divergence means a single statewide read on Missouri's economy understates real variation in local labor supply available to nonmetro businesses and public agencies, complicating any one-size-fits-all read on expansion readiness. Persistent participation gaps tied to childcare capacity point to a labor supply constraint that predates this month's data and is unlikely to resolve through wage adjustments alone. Local commerce and economic development leaders should evaluate county-specific unemployment and participation figures before drawing conclusions from state or national headlines.
Looking ahead
Data gap to monitor: October 2026 unemployment data collection failed statewide, per the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center. Watch whether November reporting resumes on schedule, since a second gap would complicate any trend read on nonmetro conditions.
Worth watching: Mississippi, Dunklin, Pemiscot and Hickory counties posted the state's highest nonmetro unemployment rates in August. Track whether Missouri's September statewide payroll loss (-10,600) concentrated further in these already-struggling counties.
Early indicator: Prime-age participation in nonmetro counties fell roughly 2% (38,000 workers) between 2015 and 2024, per University of Missouri Extension. Any further softening would reinforce childcare capacity as a durable constraint on local labor supply.
Potential inflection point: Skilled-trades advertised pay (electrician, HVAC) is rising at a significantly faster clip than retail or logistics roles locally. Whether that gap widens or narrows over the next two months will indicate if nonmetro demand is broadening beyond trades into other sectors.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / USAFacts — County unemployment range from 2.9% (Atchison) to 6.2% (Mississippi County)
- University of Missouri Extension (EXCEED) — Nonmetro prime-age participation at 78% vs 86% metro
- University of Missouri Extension (EXCEED) — Fewer than 3 childcare slots per 10 children under 5 in nonmetro areas
- Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC) — October 2026 statewide unemployment data collection failed
- Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC) — Missouri nonfarm payrolls fell 10,600 in September 2026
- University of Missouri Extension (EXCEED) — Nonmetro prime-age workforce declined ~38,000 workers (2%) 2015-2024
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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