Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Modesto, CA MSA — September 2026
Modesto's jobless rate stalls near 7% as state gap persists.
Stanislaus County unemployment held at 7.0% in August, nearly two points above California's 5.1% and three above the national 4.1%, while healthcare employment kept growing 3.7% year-over-year.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Modesto MSA unemployment rate: 7.0% — Flat vs July 2026; vs 5.1% CA, 4.1% US
- Civilian labor force (Modesto MSA): 253,200 — 235,500 employed, 17,700 unemployed, Aug 2026
- Education & Health Services growth: +3.7% — Year-over-year, metro's strongest sector
- California statewide unemployment: 5.1% — Highest of any U.S. state, Aug 2026
Key takeaways
Modesto's jobless rate gap to the state isn't closing.
At 7.0% versus California's 5.1%, the metro's unemployment rate has barely moved over 12 months even as the state rate declined. This points to a persistently softer local labor market structurally tied to seasonal agricultural employment rather than a short-term disruption.
Healthcare remains the one dependable local growth story.
Education and Health Services employment grew 3.7% year-over-year, consistent with statewide trends showing healthcare and social assistance as the most reliable job-creating sectors. Registered Nurse advertised pay locally ($134,680) running well above the national median reinforces that this sector is pulling the local economy forward even as others stall.
Falling pay in logistics and manufacturing may flag softening local demand.
Warehouse/Fulfillment, Manufacturing Production, and Delivery Driver advertised pay all moved down with moderate-to-significant magnitude this month. Combined with national WARN activity touching Amazon and Tyson Foods, this is consistent with softening in goods-movement and food-processing-adjacent segments that matter disproportionately to this metro's economic base.
Professional-services pay gains look like a bright spot, not the whole picture.
Software Engineer, Data Engineer, and Business Analyst advertised pay all rose significantly locally, outpacing national figures in two of three cases. That signals pockets of real economic strength, but these roles represent a small share of total metro employment relative to agriculture, retail, and logistics.
Median advertised pay by role — Modesto, CA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $35,025 | $36,927 | $38,968 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $33,285 | $36,204 | $38,771 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $37,238 | $43,680 | $46,800 | Moderate decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $60,320 | $78,651 | $90,220 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $35,400 | $37,547 | $43,525 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $40,395 | $42,432 | $45,478 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $65,543 | $80,839 | $88,400 | Stable | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $38,477 | $43,365 | $44,070 | Significant decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $38,480 | $43,722 | $48,710 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $35,152 | $39,493 | $47,440 | Moderate increase | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $40,040 | $45,342 | $47,840 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $41,600 | $48,068 | $52,000 | Significant increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $56,420 | $67,600 | $74,880 | Significant decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $111,438 | $134,680 | $145,257 | Stable | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $144,966 | $183,794 | $204,061 | Significant increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $129,281 | $164,510 | $164,510 | Significant increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $61,253 | $70,720 | $80,080 | Moderate decline | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $69,680 | $86,781 | $98,724 | Significant decline | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $62,400 | $80,000 | $84,250 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $63,627 | $70,179 | $72,570 | Significant decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $80,000 | $106,039 | $130,500 | Stable | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $45,651 | $68,139 | $74,880 | Stable | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $55,599 | $75,000 | $88,196 | Stable | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $60,100 | $89,500 | $100,625 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $87,290 | $110,000 | $110,575 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $64,868 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $84,680 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $41,600 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $60,488 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $72,500 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $59,904 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $68,640 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $81,398 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $39,312 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $72,944 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Stanislaus County's unemployment rate held at 7.0% in August 2026, essentially flat since July and down slightly from 7.1% a year earlier, but still nearly two full points above California's 5.1% and almost three points above the national 4.1% rate — a persistent structural gap tied to the metro's agriculture and food-processing base rather than a fresh downturn. Education and Health Services continues as the region's clearest growth engine, up 3.7% year-over-year, while statewide softness in financial activities and professional/business services (both contracting) offers a cautionary signal for the metro's smaller but growing commercial-service segment.
What it means
Flat unemployment alongside continued healthcare and public-sector stability points to a local economy that is holding steady rather than expanding or contracting sharply, which argues for measured rather than reactive business-investment decisions this quarter. Divergent local pay signals — strong advertised gains in administrative, nursing, and tech-adjacent roles against declines in manufacturing, logistics, and financial-analyst postings — suggest the metro's recovery is uneven across sectors, not uniformly weak or strong. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders weigh expansion or investment decisions sector-by-sector rather than against a single metro-wide reading.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: October 16 brings the next official state and metro labor force update; watch whether Stanislaus County's 7.0% rate ticks down toward the 6.9% low seen earlier in 2026 or holds flat, which would confirm a stalled rather than improving local recovery.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide WARN filings tied to Meta, Amazon, and Verizon haven't directly touched the Modesto metro yet, but continued national layoff activity in logistics and food-adjacent sectors bears watching given the region's concentration in food processing and distribution.
Policy-relevant signal: Agriculture and food processing, Stanislaus County's core industries, remain exposed to federal immigration enforcement activity and tariff policy shifts affecting farm labor supply and export markets; any shift here would show up first in local labor force participation data rather than headline unemployment.
Potential inflection point: California's minimum wage rises to $17.40 on January 1, 2027. Watch whether Modesto-area retail and food-service advertised pay, already trending up moderately for Food Service Worker roles, adjusts ahead of that date or waits for the mandated increase.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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