Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Napa, CA MSA — October 2026
Napa unemployment holds near five-year lows as state lags.
Napa's 4.2% unemployment rate continues to outperform California's 5.1% statewide figure, even as vineyard-sector WARN filings and a 1,300-job farm employment dip underscore the county's agriculture-driven volatility.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Napa MSA unemployment rate: 4.2% — vs. 5.1% statewide, 4.1% national
- Napa labor force: 74,300 — 71,200 employed, 3,100 unemployed, Oct. 2026
- Vineyard-sector WARN filing: 91 workers — Renteria Vineyard Management, effective Oct. 15
- Farm employment change: -1,300 jobs — July to August 2026, offset by +600 nonfarm
Key takeaways
Napa's jobless rate keeps outperforming the state by a wide margin.
4.2% local unemployment against California's 5.1% reflects a metro economy holding up better than most of the state, even as inland counties like Fresno (8.1%) and Bakersfield-Delano (7.9%) show sharp divergence. That gap is a defensible, quotable marker of relative economic health for a county this small and agriculture-dependent.
Vineyard-sector layoffs look concentrated so far.
Renteria Vineyard Management's 91-worker WARN notice and Gallo's earlier reductions (St. Helena Ranch Winery closure, Louis M. Martini cuts) total under 200 affected workers against a labor force of 74,300. Consistent with sector-specific consolidation in wine operations.
Logistics pay surges point to wine-trade distribution strength.
CDL Truck Driver advertised pay rose significantly to $89,989 (metro) against a national median of $78,872, and Warehouse Manager pay climbed to $94,853. Job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), show this divergence is consistent with continued investment in goods movement tied to the valley's wine and hospitality supply chains, even as some frontline logistics roles like Delivery Driver ($41,600, down significantly) soften.
Farm employment swings remain the metro's defining seasonal rhythm.
August's 1,300-job farm employment decline from July, offset by a 600-job nonfarm gain, illustrates how agricultural seasonality continues to drive month-to-month volatility more than any single employer decision. Economists and commerce leaders tracking momentum should expect this pattern to recur through harvest-adjacent months.
Median advertised pay by role — Napa, CA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $35,152 | $39,520 | $44,356 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $35,053 | $38,401 | $40,402 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $38,094 | $43,680 | $46,800 | Moderate decline | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $70,295 | $89,989 | $94,911 | Significant increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $37,373 | $41,600 | $52,000 | Significant decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $39,838 | $43,148 | $50,368 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $72,765 | $92,771 | $98,800 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler * | $37,440 | $43,680 | $47,840 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $46,207 | $62,500 | $62,500 | Significant increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker * | $35,724 | $43,680 | $48,797 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $46,800 | $57,810 | $60,320 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $33,363 | $46,592 | $55,120 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician * | $63,440 | $78,000 | $84,208 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $104,950 | $130,362 | $144,165 | Stable | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $184,463 | $186,900 | $186,900 | Significant increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $121,025 | $135,283 | $138,890 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $61,403 | $77,273 | $87,791 | Significant decline | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $77,731 | $90,985 | $93,927 | Moderate decline | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $72,685 | $87,820 | $89,700 | Stable | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $50,000 | $70,050 | $79,850 | Moderate increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $81,730 | $109,471 | $129,375 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $67,500 | $98,490 | $98,491 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $57,200 | $80,000 | $86,521 | Significant decline | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $74,500 | $94,853 | $102,750 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $84,848 | $101,463 | $115,397 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $83,660 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $55,038 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $48,672 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $52,520 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Information | $51,448 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $56,160 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $82,342 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $106,065 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $44,876 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $77,013 | Stable | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Napa MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in October, outperforming California's 5.1% statewide rate and extending a pattern that has placed the county among the state's five lowest-unemployment counties for much of 2026. Agricultural seasonality remains the dominant local force — farm employment fell 1,300 jobs from July to August even as nonfarm payrolls gained 600 — while WARN filings from Renteria Vineyard Management (91 workers, effective Oct. 15) and earlier Gallo facility reductions point to structural adjustment concentrated within the wine and vineyard-management sector.
What it means
Napa's unemployment gap versus the state (4.2% vs. 5.1%) signals a labor market tighter than California's overall, which argues for a constructive read on local business investment even as agriculture-linked layoffs warrant monitoring. Advertised pay for CDL Truck Driver (up significantly to $89,989) and Warehouse Manager (up significantly to $94,853) suggests logistics and distribution activity tied to the wine trade and broader goods movement remains a bright spot even as vineyard-adjacent layoffs draw headlines. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing should weigh the county's below-state unemployment rate against the narrower, agriculture-concentrated nature of recent job losses — current conditions suggest tracking whether WARN activity spreads beyond vineyard management before drawing conclusions about broader local momentum.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Whether WARN activity beyond Renteria Vineyard Management and Gallo spreads into other wine-sector employers over the next 60 days will determine if this is isolated consolidation or an early signal of broader agricultural-sector contraction.
Early indicator: Healthcare and social assistance remain a named growth sector locally and statewide (California's private education/health services added 8,000 jobs in September); continued advertised-pay strength in Registered Nurse ($130,362) and CNA/Home Health Aide ($57,810) roles would reinforce that this sector is carrying local momentum.
Policy-relevant signal: California's SB 951, requiring WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs starting with EDD's quarterly displacement reports, may surface new detail on whether Napa-area filings carry an automation component — relevant for government economists assessing structural versus cyclical displacement.
Potential inflection point: National wage-vs-inflation divergence (1.5% median earnings growth against 3.5% CPI) has not yet shown clear local confirmation; watch whether Napa's historically stable advertised-pay categories (Retail Sales Associate, Food Service Worker, both flat) begin to show downward pressure as a read on local consumer spending power.
Sources
- California Employment Development Department — Napa MSA unemployment rate at 4.2% in October 2026
- California Employment Development Department — California statewide unemployment rate at 5.1% in September 2026
- California WARN Act filings — Renteria Vineyard Management WARN filing for 91 workers
- CBS San Francisco — Gallo layoffs of nearly 100 workers across Napa/Sonoma locations
- California Employment Development Department — Fresno and Bakersfield-Delano unemployment rates diverge sharply from coastal counties
- California State Legislature — SB 951 requires WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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