Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: ND NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Rural North Dakota's labor scarcity, not demand, caps expansion
North Dakota's 2.1% unemployment rate and 69.2% labor force participation sit far above national norms, yet 38 of 53 counties report open-position shortages even as statewide payrolls were flat over the year through July 2026.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- ND unemployment rate: 2.1% — vs 4.1% US rate; second-lowest among states
- Labor force participation: 69.2% — vs 61.8% US rate; third-highest nationally
- Statewide nonfarm job growth: 0% — 12 months through July 2026, despite near-zero unemployment
- Counties reporting worker shortages: 38 of 53 — Healthcare, education, hospitality hardest hit
Key takeaways
Zero job growth masks a labor-constrained, not weak, economy.
North Dakota added no net nonfarm jobs over the year through July 2026 while unemployment held at 2.1%, a pattern consistent with employers unable to find workers rather than reduced demand for labor. Commerce leaders courting new investment should frame regional readiness around workforce supply, not idle capacity.
Trades wages are the clearest signal of local scarcity.
Electrician pay rose to a $83,200 metro median and HVAC technician pay to $84,889, both significant increases and both well above national medians, pointing to persistent shortages in skilled trades tied to construction and energy-sector activity. Infrastructure and housing projects anchored to public or commercial investment should budget for sustained cost pressure in these trades.
Healthcare and hospitality face the deepest worker gaps.
Statewide reporting from the Governor's Workforce Summit puts healthcare need at 3,700 openings, with hospitality and food service also cited as hardest to fill, a gap concentrated in rural counties with aging populations and limited commuting pools. This directly affects service availability for residents and visitors, a relevant consideration for tourism- and healthcare-dependent local economies.
Falling office and tech pay diverges from trades strength.
Software engineer pay fell significantly to a $118,104 metro median and financial analyst pay dropped to $86,840, both declining faster than national trends, suggesting white-collar and professional-services demand in nonmetro North Dakota is softer than the trades and healthcare segments. This divergence is consistent with national wage patterns splitting along blue-collar and white-collar lines this month.
Median advertised pay by role — ND NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $24,469 | $30,320 | $33,800 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,665 | $30,564 | $31,417 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,864 | $41,080 | $43,680 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $61,891 | $83,454 | $97,500 | Moderate increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $28,739 | $33,696 | $35,712 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,522 | $43,418 | $45,760 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $64,778 | $83,200 | $114,400 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $35,877 | $40,635 | $43,196 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $30,253 | $34,320 | $37,440 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $30,629 | $37,523 | $37,523 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $34,396 | $36,239 | $41,803 | Moderate decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $37,440 | $43,680 | $49,088 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $63,500 | $84,889 | $93,600 | Significant increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $73,641 | $88,920 | $105,445 | Moderate increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $93,178 | $118,104 | $127,546 | Significant decline | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $75,038 | $118,965 | $147,416 | Moderate decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $57,277 | $65,322 | $68,033 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $66,587 | $86,840 | $91,311 | Significant decline | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $51,942 | $68,682 | $75,994 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $41,011 | $60,000 | $74,132 | Moderate decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $81,708 | $84,804 | $88,834 | No data | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $35,360 | $52,336 | $60,593 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $61,846 | $86,992 | $91,586 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | — | — | — | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $73,630 | $89,343 | $96,125 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $64,984 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $77,302 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $40,678 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $53,614 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Information | $84,341 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $61,803 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $72,532 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $85,582 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $32,586 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $67,800 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nonmetropolitan North Dakota operates inside a statewide labor market defined by scarcity rather than slack: unemployment at 2.1%, participation at 69.2% (third-highest nationally), and zero net nonfarm job growth over the twelve months through July 2026, a combination that signals a labor pool too small to staff existing demand rather than weak business activity. Supply pressure traces to a roughly 1,400-worker decline in the labor force over the past year, driven by fewer available international workers, rising retirements, and reduced labor force attachment among high-school-age residents, compounding acute shortages in healthcare (3,700 openings statewide), transportation, and hospitality roles concentrated in rural counties.
What it means
Flat payroll growth paired with near-full employment means local economic expansion in nonmetro counties is constrained by worker availability, not by softening demand for goods or services, which should reframe how chambers and economic development offices talk about growth readiness with prospective employers or investors. Electrician and HVAC advertised pay climbing to $83,200 and $84,889 respectively, both well above national medians, is consistent with trades scarcity translating directly into cost pressure for any construction or infrastructure project local governments or commerce groups are trying to advance. Local leaders should consider evaluating workforce availability, not just incentive packages, as the binding constraint in business recruitment conversations this quarter.
Looking ahead
Policy to watch: Governor Armstrong's proposed new workforce department aims to streamline coordination across state labor programs; its design will signal whether the state treats labor scarcity as a structural, long-term planning problem or a cyclical one.
Early indicator: International worker availability has declined alongside the roughly 1,400-worker drop in labor force over the past year; any shift in federal immigration enforcement posture could further affect the pool of workers available to rural employers, a bare fact local leaders should track without attaching policy advocacy.
Emerging pressure point: National WARN filings rose for transportation and energy employers (Accelerate360, Transdev, Hess) within North Dakota this year; watch whether displaced workers from these notices enter the rural labor pool or leave the state, affecting local availability in trucking and energy-adjacent trades.
Worth watching: National wage growth has slipped below inflation for the first time in two years (3.0% vs 3.4% CPI), a dynamic that, if it persists, could compress consumer spending power even in a tight-labor state like North Dakota, independent of local job availability.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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