Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: NE NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Nonmetro Nebraska's low unemployment masks a shrinking workforce.
Nebraska's nonmetro unemployment holds near historic lows at 2.9%, but labor force participation has fallen 0.8 points year-over-year and openings per unemployed worker have dropped from nearly 4 to under 1.5 since 2022.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Nebraska unemployment rate: 2.9% — Unchanged from July 2026 and from August 2025
- Labor force participation: 69.3% — Down from 69.4% prior month, 0.8pt YoY decline
- Openings-to-unemployed ratio: <1.5 — Down from nearly 4.0 in 2022
- National September payroll growth: 29,000 jobs — Well below 45,000 12-month average
Key takeaways
Nonmetro Nebraska's tight labor market is a supply story, not a boom.
Participation fell to 69.3% even as unemployment sits near historic lows, and the openings-to-unemployed ratio has collapsed from nearly 4 to under 1.5 since 2022. Low unemployment here reflects fewer available workers more than surging demand.
Manufacturing and construction pay gains outpace the metro's white-collar categories.
Manufacturing production/assembler pay rose significantly and construction labor pay rose moderately locally, while HR generalist pay fell significantly and business analyst pay fell moderately. Divergence points to localized goods-sector strength against softer administrative and professional-services demand.
Healthcare wage growth looks structural, not a one-month blip.
Registered nurse pay rose significantly both locally ($110,656) and nationally, tracking a statewide pattern where healthcare and social assistance led job growth by percentage (4.5% year-over-year). Persistent shortages in healthcare and education, noted by state workforce data, suggest this pressure continues regardless of broader cooling.
National payroll deceleration has not yet shown up in nonmetro Nebraska's numbers.
National September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs with downward revisions to prior months, while Nebraska's unemployment held flat at 2.9% through August. Local data lag means this metro's economy may be cooling in ways not yet visible in the available releases.
Median advertised pay by role — NE NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $23,624 | $27,860 | $32,659 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $25,172 | $31,200 | $32,240 | Moderate increase | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $32,393 | $39,520 | $43,680 | Moderate increase | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,067 | $77,015 | $91,000 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,136 | $30,956 | $33,832 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $34,342 | $41,600 | $45,760 | Moderate increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $59,993 | $71,869 | $80,080 | Moderate increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $34,320 | $41,600 | $47,840 | Significant increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $32,207 | $35,528 | $38,217 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $29,585 | $33,610 | $36,400 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $36,237 | $42,640 | $44,395 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $33,362 | $38,339 | $41,520 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $56,160 | $63,281 | $68,000 | Stable | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $84,111 | $110,656 | $120,068 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $111,819 | $136,015 | $157,666 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $94,231 | $132,338 | $139,767 | Stable | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $52,338 | $61,055 | $70,000 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $80,000 | $100,291 | $112,530 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $46,599 | $51,872 | $64,716 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $50,400 | $63,760 | $68,539 | Significant increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $78,793 | $88,654 | $92,980 | Moderate increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $31,200 | $46,654 | $53,947 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $72,250 | $94,511 | $105,560 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | — | — | — | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $79,905 | $94,004 | $100,289 | Moderate decline | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $46,885 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $81,440 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $43,812 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $53,320 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Information | $123,878 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $80,571 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Professional & Business Services | $69,424 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $62,179 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $33,280 | Stable | Moderate decline |
| Government | $65,034 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nebraska's nonmetropolitan labor market is tracking the statewide pattern of historically low unemployment alongside clear structural cooling: the 2.9% August rate holds near record lows even as labor force participation slipped to 69.3% and the job openings-to-unemployed ratio fell to fewer than 1.5, down from nearly 4 in 2022. Sector momentum in this metro appears concentrated in manufacturing production (advertised pay up significantly), construction, and warehouse/fulfillment roles, consistent with statewide gains in healthcare, professional services, and utilities while white-collar administrative and HR-adjacent categories show local pay declines.
What it means
Rural and nonmetro Nebraska's tight labor supply — fewer than 1.5 openings per unemployed worker and falling participation — suggests capacity constraints are now a demand-side story as much as a hiring story, meaning local expansion plans may face real execution limits regardless of balance-sheet readiness. Commerce leaders evaluating local investment or facility decisions should weigh that manufacturing and construction wages are rising locally even as white-collar categories like HR, business analysis, and customer service soften, pointing to a bifurcated local economy rather than a uniformly tight or loose one. Consider reviewing which sectors in the local basket show genuine pay momentum versus stagnation before assuming broad-based economic heat.
Looking ahead
Reporting gap: Official BLS metro-level data for this nonmetropolitan area has not yet been published for September and typically lags by several months. Commerce leaders relying on real-time reads should treat current figures as a June–August baseline, not a live signal.
Emerging pressure point: Labor force participation has declined 0.8 percentage points year-over-year even as the state ranks 2nd nationally on this measure. Watch whether rural outmigration or retirement-driven exits accelerate, which would tighten the labor supply further regardless of local demand conditions.
Policy to monitor: Nebraska's minimum wage rises to $15.26 on January 1, 2027, with future increases locked to a fixed 1.75% annual rate rather than CPI, a change from the 2022 ballot measure. This is a bare fact relevant to cost planning for retail, food service, and hospitality employers in the local basket, independent of any partisan framing.
Worth watching: Nebraska's new state WARN Act (effective July 17, 2026) requires 90-day notice for layoffs affecting 100+ workers, a lower threshold for transparency than federal law. Watch whether any nonmetro-area notices surface in coming months as an early signal of localized sector stress.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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