Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: NY NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Manufacturing wins land in nonmetro NY, but labor force gap remains
Danfoss and SAAB investments and an $86,500 CDL Truck Driver wage point to logistics-linked momentum, even as county unemployment still spans 3.2% to 5.2% across rural New York.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- CDL Truck Driver advertised pay: $86,500 — vs $78,000 national median, up significantly
- County unemployment range (Aug 2026): 3.2%–5.2% — Saratoga low vs St. Lawrence high, NSA
- Rural labor force change, 2012-2022: -13,707 workers — Across 10 rural NY counties; 2,580 jobs lost
- NY statewide labor force participation: 61.3% — Down from 61.5% in prior reading (July 2026)
Key takeaways
Manufacturing investment is real, but labor force erosion predates it.
Danfoss, SAAB, and smaller Oswego/Onondaga expansions point to renewed site-selection interest in the Mohawk Valley and Central New York corridors. That optimism sits against a 2012-2022 baseline of 13,707 lost workers and 2,580 lost jobs across the ten rural counties — a gap that new announcements have not yet closed.
Logistics pay is outrunning the region's own wage baseline.
CDL Truck Driver advertised pay at $86,500 locally outpaces the $78,000 national median by a wide margin, a divergence not mirrored in warehouse or delivery roles. This narrow but sharp signal is consistent with freight and distribution activity tied to manufacturing supply chains rather than a broad-based wage acceleration.
County-level spread undercuts any single regional narrative.
Unemployment ranging from 3.2% in Saratoga to 5.2% in St. Lawrence reflects the nonmetro area's geographic fragmentation rather than one labor market. Commerce leaders evaluating site locations or policy comparisons should anchor to county-level data, not a blended nonmetro average.
Healthcare wage gains offer the steadiest signal in a mixed picture.
Certified Nursing Assistant/Home Health Aide pay rose moderately to $44,720, consistent with healthcare's position as the dominant and most stable rural employment sector statewide. That stability contrasts with sharper swings in logistics and manufacturing pay, suggesting healthcare remains the structural backbone of the regional economy.
Median advertised pay by role — NY NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $31,549 | $33,384 | $34,580 | Moderate decline | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $30,333 | $34,320 | $35,360 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,250 | $40,000 | $43,420 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $60,172 | $86,500 | $98,800 | Significant increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,244 | $34,220 | $38,070 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $34,708 | $41,600 | $46,800 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $55,986 | $71,677 | $78,562 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $34,136 | $40,239 | $44,419 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $35,360 | $39,520 | $42,764 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $32,647 | $37,440 | $37,918 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $37,853 | $44,720 | $49,920 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $34,736 | $43,680 | $48,880 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $56,160 | $65,415 | $70,487 | Moderate increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $91,331 | $113,511 | $124,622 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $116,492 | $155,052 | $174,499 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $99,394 | $144,112 | $159,248 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $59,429 | $71,723 | $79,596 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $73,985 | $96,686 | $104,109 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $65,740 | $92,655 | $102,599 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $44,844 | $58,872 | $70,334 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $53,112 | $90,070 | $113,167 | Stable | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $42,499 | $59,282 | $64,502 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $62,340 | $96,454 | $118,076 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $47,232 | $62,774 | $75,021 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $82,377 | $98,839 | $110,107 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $82,500 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $107,597 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $39,500 | Moderate decline | Moderate decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $41,650 | Significant decline | Moderate decline |
| Information | $128,937 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $120,975 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $87,012 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $67,600 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,440 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $69,310 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Rural New York's structural labor force contraction continues to shape the nonmetro economy, with manufacturing investment — Danfoss in the Mohawk Valley, SAAB's new Aspen Park defense site, and expansion activity in Oswego and Onondaga counties — offering pockets of momentum against a backdrop of county unemployment ranging from 3.2% (Saratoga) to 5.2% (St. Lawrence). CDL Truck Driver pay climbed to $86,500 (up significantly, well above the $78,000 national figure), a signal consistent with continued logistics and distribution activity tied to manufacturing supply chains even as statewide labor force participation edges down from 61.5% to 61.3%.
What it means
Divergent sector performance — manufacturing and logistics gaining ground while retail, personal services, and parts of professional services soften — suggests commerce leaders should weigh expansion decisions by sector rather than treat the nonmetro region as a single economic unit. Named-employer investments (Danfoss, SAAB, the Clay-based manufacturer's planned 25-50 person expansion) indicate site-selection confidence in regional infrastructure and workforce despite the area's decade-long labor force decline. Current conditions suggest economic development officials and chamber leaders track whether these manufacturing wins translate into measurable labor force reversal, rather than assuming investment announcements alone signal broad recovery.
Looking ahead
Expected: BLS metro-level employment data for the Utica-Rome and Mohawk Valley areas releases October 20, 2026, which will offer the first real read on whether Danfoss and related manufacturing investment moved the needle on headcount.
Worth watching: Whether the Clay-area manufacturer's planned 25-50 hire expansion materializes on schedule will serve as a local bellwether for whether announced investment converts into realized payroll growth.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide local government shed 13,000 jobs outside education in September; watch whether nonmetro counties, which rely heavily on public-sector payrolls, see a proportional pullback that could offset private manufacturing gains.
Early indicator: Labor force participation has slipped two-tenths statewide; a continued decline in nonmetro counties would be consistent with the decade-long structural outmigration trend rather than a new cyclical softening.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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