Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Oklahoma City, OK MSA — October 2026
Oklahoma City unemployment climbs as capital investment holds steady.
Metro unemployment rose to 3.70% from 3.40% a year ago even as Hapco's $50 million facility and Google's $3 billion Stillwater project continue, while graduate in-state retention fell to 76.5% from 87% in two years.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 3.70% — vs 3.40% a year ago (Sept. 2025)
- 2026 average unemployment: 3.93% — vs 3.23% full-year 2025 average
- Graduate in-state retention: 76.5% — down from 87% in 2023
- Weekly initial UI claims: 1,128 — up 87 from prior week (Oct. 3 filing)
Key takeaways
Unemployment is rising even as marquee capital projects proceed.
Metro joblessness rose 30 basis points year-over-year to 3.70% while Hapco and Google commitments continue unimpeded, suggesting the slowdown reflects labor supply and participation dynamics more than a retreat in business investment appetite.
Graduate retention decline is a slower-moving risk than headline unemployment.
In-state retention of Oklahoma public college graduates fell from 87% to 76.5% in two years, a trend line that erodes the long-run talent base commerce leaders cite when courting employers, independent of this month's unemployment print.
Wage gains are concentrated in specific roles across the metro.
Registered Nurse pay rose significantly to a $108,760 metro median and Account Manager and Operations Manager roles posted significant increases, while job ads for retail, food service and administrative roles — a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings — stayed flat, a pattern consistent with uneven sectoral momentum across the metro.
CDL driver pay outpacing the national figure signals logistics-sector tightness.
Metro CDL Truck Driver median pay of $80,000 now exceeds the $78,872 national figure and is moving up, a divergence worth watching given the metro's growing logistics and distribution footprint tied to recent manufacturing investment.
Median advertised pay by role — Oklahoma City, OK MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,644 | $28,070 | $32,240 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,880 | $25,007 | $27,621 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,008 | $34,320 | $37,440 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,373 | $80,000 | $93,600 | Moderate increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,500 | $30,962 | $35,560 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $32,347 | $35,360 | $37,960 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $57,200 | $68,640 | $76,960 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $30,035 | $37,357 | $38,480 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $30,060 | $35,360 | $37,500 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $25,108 | $28,205 | $31,992 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $30,816 | $33,705 | $35,880 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,200 | $38,016 | $42,342 | Stable | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $55,461 | $64,480 | $67,600 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $87,750 | $108,760 | $118,144 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $101,268 | $140,175 | $158,769 | Moderate increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $96,641 | $129,197 | $141,551 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $56,553 | $67,900 | $77,500 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,112 | $86,801 | $101,200 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $53,920 | $67,277 | $77,500 | Moderate decline | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $46,861 | $61,500 | $69,867 | Significant increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $57,500 | $75,858 | $83,470 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $30,160 | $48,362 | $52,853 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $61,828 | $93,441 | $118,500 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $47,714 | $54,907 | $63,437 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $72,727 | $86,700 | $97,670 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $61,230 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $104,500 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $41,080 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $62,054 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Information | $136,762 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Financial Activities | $60,895 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $89,707 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $80,080 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $30,124 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $60,217 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Oklahoma City metro unemployment climbed to 3.70% in September 2026, up from 3.40% a year earlier, even as employment growth continues among capital projects like Hapco's $50 million aluminum manufacturing facility and Google's $3 billion Stillwater data center build-out. Statewide wage growth is moderating — Dallas-Fort Worth-Oklahoma CSA wages rose 3.0% over the past year against a national CPI trajectory still running near 3.5-3.7%, a gap that is quietly eroding purchasing power across metro households even where headline job counts hold up.
What it means
Rising unemployment alongside continued capital investment suggests the metro's labor market is loosening at the margins while its investment pipeline stays intact — a combination that typically favors employers seeking talent and signals a more favorable cost environment for firms considering local expansion. Declining in-state retention of public college graduates (76.5% in 2025, down from 87% in 2023) points to a structural supply risk that capital investment alone will not resolve, a factor economic development officials and chambers should weigh when evaluating workforce-readiness claims tied to new project announcements. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing may want to consider that current slack in the labor market, paired with still-active megaproject investment, creates a narrower window where talent availability and public-sector stability both favor new entrants.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Weekly initial unemployment claims rose to 1,128 for the week ending October 3, up 87 from the prior week, with the four-week average at 1,082. A sustained climb over the next several readings would confirm the metro's rising unemployment trend reflects a durable pattern beyond a single week's data.
Expected: October's statewide and metro BLS unemployment figures are due in late November; current trajectory (3.93% average for 2026 versus 3.23% in 2025) suggests continued softening, a data point government economists will want for year-end labor force participation assessments.
Worth watching: 121 companies were reported as actively considering relocation to or expansion in Greater Oklahoma City as of December 2025. Any announcements converting those prospects to committed projects in coming weeks would be a concrete signal of whether investment momentum is holding against the softer labor backdrop.
Emerging pressure point: Graduate in-state retention has fallen for two consecutive years; watch whether state workforce or higher-education data released this quarter shows stabilization, since continued decline would compound labor supply constraints already visible in rising unemployment alongside active capital investment.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.