Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Provo-Orem, UT MSA — September 2026
Provo's labor force shrinks while unemployment stays historically low.
Provo-Orem employment fell from 372,300 to roughly 355,400 workers even as unemployment held at 3.7%, a divergence that bears watching as Utah's government sector sheds jobs and national wage growth falls behind 3.4% inflation.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Provo-Orem unemployment rate: 3.7% — vs 4.1% national, 3.5% Utah statewide (July/Aug 2026)
- Metro labor force change: -16,900 — 372,300 (Jan) to ~355,400 employed (Aug 2026)
- Avg weekly wage, Provo-Orem: $1,250.12 — Q1 2026, BLS QCEW
- Northern Utah government jobs lost: -1,090 — Tied to $12.7M budget shortfall, federal cuts
Key takeaways
Provo's labor force is shrinking even as unemployment stays low.
Employment fell from roughly 372,300 to 355,400 over the first eight months of 2026 while the jobless rate held under 4%, a combination that points to workers leaving the labor force rather than losing jobs. That dynamic caps the pool of available workers for expanding employers and may understate underlying labor market slack.
Pay softness is concentrated, not metro-wide.
Manufacturing production, customer service, administrative, and food service roles all show moderate local pay declines even as electricians, nurses, and operations managers post gains. Reading this as broad-based wage weakness would mischaracterize an economy where blue-collar skilled trades and healthcare remain tight.
Utah's public-sector contraction adds a new variable.
Northern Utah shed 1,090 government jobs tied to a $12.7 million budget shortfall and federal civilian reductions, a modest but notable shift for a state economy that has leaned on public-sector stability. Commerce leaders should watch whether this remains isolated or extends into Utah County's public employment base.
National wage-inflation gap has not yet shown up locally.
National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power, while Provo's Q1 average weekly wage of $1,250.12 and several metro pay gains (registered nurses, HVAC technicians, operations managers) suggest local purchasing power may be holding up better than the national trend. Confirming whether this divergence persists through Q3 data will matter for reading local consumer spending strength.
Median advertised pay by role — Provo-Orem, UT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $25,300 | $31,200 | $33,280 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $25,503 | $29,388 | $32,075 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $32,032 | $35,360 | $37,440 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $55,400 | $81,614 | $88,889 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $30,611 | $33,279 | $35,360 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,595 | $42,640 | $43,881 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $61,360 | $73,359 | $83,129 | Stable | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,200 | $34,320 | $36,771 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,320 | $37,950 | $41,600 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $28,544 | $30,925 | $33,446 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,280 | $37,240 | $39,655 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $32,848 | $40,560 | $45,753 | Moderate decline | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $60,320 | $76,406 | $80,412 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $77,742 | $90,251 | $92,050 | Moderate increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $106,102 | $143,935 | $156,000 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $103,644 | $137,901 | $145,873 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $57,597 | $64,700 | $70,536 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $71,423 | $91,343 | $95,916 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $50,000 | $71,568 | $80,000 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $45,000 | $55,000 | $60,000 | Moderate decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $72,997 | $82,974 | $95,108 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $33,280 | $46,800 | $54,149 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $59,216 | $85,000 | $98,931 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $46,118 | $54,301 | $55,000 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $76,148 | $94,856 | $100,182 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $57,500 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $62,421 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $35,290 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $53,751 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $106,113 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $53,319 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $56,943 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $46,800 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,858 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $67,247 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Provo-Orem's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in July 2026, well below the 4.1% national rate, even as the metro's labor force softened from 372,300 in January to roughly 355,400 employed by late summer — a pattern consistent with employer caution rather than acute distress. Wage data points in two directions at once: Q1 2026 average weekly wages reached $1,250.12, yet several locally advertised roles (manufacturing production, customer service, food service, administrative) show moderate pay declines, suggesting softening is concentrated in specific occupational segments rather than metro-wide.
What it means
Flat labor force growth alongside low unemployment signals a metro economy operating near capacity in some sectors (professional/business services, healthcare) while cooling in others (manufacturing, administrative support, customer-facing roles) — a bifurcated picture economic development planners should factor into sector-specific outreach rather than treating the metro as uniformly tight or uniformly loose. For commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment, the combination of sub-4% unemployment and moderating wage pressure in several occupational categories suggests a window where labor costs are not accelerating sharply even as availability remains constrained for specialized roles. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level divergence before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business climate from any single indicator.
Looking ahead
Expected release: BLS metro-level September employment data for Provo-Orem is scheduled for October 28, 2026. This will be the first hard confirmation of whether the labor force decline seen through mid-2026 continued or stabilized.
Emerging pressure point: Utah's information sector lost 2,300 jobs statewide year-over-year and government employment fell in northern Utah on budget shortfalls. Watch whether either trend concentrates further in Utah County, where professional/business services has been a primary growth engine.
Worth watching: Manufacturing WARN activity statewide remains elevated, with Tyson Fresh Meats' 723-worker Eagle Mountain notice the largest single filing of 2026. Any additional manufacturing-sector notices in Utah County would signal broader softening beyond this single event.
Potential inflection point: National job growth has decelerated sharply (29,000 added in September versus a 45,000 trailing average, with prior months revised down 60,000). Whether Provo-Orem's historically outperforming labor market decouples from or tracks this national slowdown will be the key signal in the next two data cycles.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRED — Provo-Orem unemployment rate was 3.7% in July 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Metro labor force declined from 372,300 to 355,444 employed in 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Average weekly wages in Provo-Orem reached $1,250.12 in Q1 2026
- Utah Dept. of Workforce Services — Northern Utah government employment fell 1,090 jobs on budget shortfall
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — National wage growth fell to 3.0% annual vs 3.4% inflation
- LayoffIQ / Utah WARN tracker — Tyson Fresh Meats filed WARN notice for 723 workers in Eagle Mountain
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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