Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: St. Louis, MO-IL MSA — September 2026
St. Louis County jobs shrink while City wages and manufacturing gain.
St. Louis County posted a 2.2% year-over-year employment decline even as St. Louis City wages rose 5.7% to $1,611 weekly and statewide manufacturing/construction job gains picked up in September.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- St. Louis County employment: -2.2% — Year-over-year through Sept 2025, steepest in Missouri
- St. Louis City weekly wage: $1,611 — Q4 2025, vs. $1,569 national average
- Missouri unemployment rate: 3.2% — September 2026, lowest since January 2000
- Manufacturing retirement gap: 4,200 shortfall — vs. 28,600 workers retiring by 2027
Key takeaways
St. Louis County and City are telling different economic stories.
County employment fell 2.2% year-over-year through September 2025, the steepest drop among major Missouri counties, while City wages grew 5.7% in Q4 2025 to $1,611 weekly. Metro-wide averages likely mask meaningfully different local business conditions depending on geography.
Manufacturing's retirement cliff looks structural, not cyclical.
Roughly 28,600 manufacturing workers are projected to reach retirement age by 2027 against a regional training pipeline shortfall near 4,200 positions. Defense and data-center construction demand noted in the Fed's Beige Book will compete for an already-constrained skilled labor supply.
Metro job growth has nearly stalled even as unemployment stays low.
Average monthly job growth has slowed to about 0.03%, down from 0.25% during pandemic-era recovery, while the metro unemployment rate has held near 3.7-4.0% since late 2025. Low unemployment alongside flat job creation is consistent with a labor-constrained rather than demand-constrained economy.
Health care and business services remain the metro's economic anchor.
Centene and World Wide Technology anchor a health care and business services base that accounts for nearly a third of metro jobs. Concentration in these sectors provides stability but also means metro-wide momentum is disproportionately tied to two industries' performance.
Median advertised pay by role — St. Louis, MO-IL MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $28,434 | $33,280 | $35,232 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $27,614 | $32,002 | $33,280 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,909 | $37,440 | $41,600 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $56,916 | $75,149 | $85,000 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,372 | $33,118 | $39,000 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $33,386 | $39,520 | $43,680 | Moderate decline | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $59,280 | $70,321 | $77,985 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,857 | $39,104 | $41,891 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $31,720 | $38,480 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $30,098 | $33,280 | $37,440 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $35,074 | $41,568 | $43,904 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $35,360 | $42,395 | $46,800 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $57,569 | $78,000 | $81,120 | Moderate increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $94,150 | $110,776 | $121,218 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $104,441 | $133,814 | $149,000 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $92,302 | $123,947 | $141,930 | Moderate decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $59,280 | $68,500 | $75,163 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,520 | $87,500 | $97,372 | Moderate decline | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $58,452 | $73,778 | $85,000 | Moderate increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $51,648 | $62,500 | $69,120 | Moderate increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $57,847 | $71,389 | $71,389 | Significant decline | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $34,484 | $47,842 | $53,613 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $61,067 | $89,738 | $110,226 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | $64,827 | $75,000 | $75,000 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $80,201 | $98,271 | $106,413 | Stable | $98,279 |
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $68,942 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $102,706 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $36,912 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $59,486 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $84,025 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $87,814 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $78,924 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $60,679 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $33,862 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $66,649 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
St. Louis labor market conditions remain split by geography and sector: St. Louis County has posted the largest over-the-year employment decline among Missouri's major counties while St. Louis City wages rose 5.7% in Q4 2025 to $1,611 weekly, above the national average, pointing to uneven momentum within a single metro. Statewide durable goods manufacturing, construction, and transportation/warehousing drove September job gains, consistent with the Eighth District Beige Book's note that defense and data-center construction demand is lifting nonfinancial and manufacturing activity even as overall metro job growth has slowed to roughly 0.03% monthly.
What it means
Divergence between county-level job losses and city-level wage strength suggests the metro's economic health cannot be read from a single headline number — commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment should look sub-metro, not just metro-wide, before drawing conclusions about business climate. Manufacturing's retirement wave (28,600 workers projected to age out by 2027 against a training pipeline shortfall of 4,200) is a structural supply constraint that construction and defense-linked demand will intensify, not resolve. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce-policy conversations should treat the manufacturing pipeline gap as a near-term capacity constraint on any defense or data-center-driven growth plans.
Looking ahead
Potential inflection point: October 20 brings the next BLS state-level labor force participation release; watch whether Missouri's 63.3% rate (17th nationally) holds as national participation sits flat at 61.8%, a signal of whether the state is pulling in or losing ground on workforce supply.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide job postings fell 11.7% year-over-year in July even as sub-3.2% state unemployment and metro manufacturing/construction gains suggest selective tightness. Watch whether this gap between falling postings and resilient hiring in specific sectors widens or closes locally.
Worth watching: National WARN filings have pulled in large employers (Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle) with no comparable notices yet identified for the St. Louis metro in September. A shift in that pattern would be an early signal of national cooling reaching this market.
Expected: Defense and data-center construction demand cited in the Eighth District Beige Book should show up in subsequent construction and durable-goods employment figures; confirming whether this translates into sustained metro job counts, not just a one-month bump, is the key test over the next two reporting cycles.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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