Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Stockton, CA MSA — September 2026
Stockton's jobs engine stalls even as healthcare pay surges.
Stockton-Lodi added an average of just 25 jobs a month in 2026 against 550 in 2025, while registered nurse pay climbed to a metro median of $133,891, well above the $102,581 national figure.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Stockton-Lodi unemployment rate: 6.4%-6.8% — vs 4.1% national, 5.1% California
- Monthly job growth, 2026 average: 25 jobs/month — vs 550/month average in 2025
- California statewide unemployment: 5.1% — Highest of any U.S. state, Aug 2026
- National wage vs. inflation gap: 3.0% wage growth vs 3.4% CPI — Real wages declining nationally, Sept 2026
Key takeaways
Job creation has nearly stalled even as unemployment stays elevated.
Averaging just 25 net new jobs a month in 2026, down from 550 in 2025, the metro is generating essentially no net employment growth while carrying one of the highest jobless rates among large U.S. metros. That combination is consistent with a local economy still working through excess labor supply rather than one constrained by worker shortages.
Professional and business services contraction is the metro's clearest drag.
Significant pullbacks in operations management, marketing, and accounting pay (all down moderately to significantly) mirror the sector's broader statewide contraction in finance and professional services. That pattern suggests back-office and administrative activity is retrenching locally even as front-line and technical sectors hold steadier.
Healthcare pay strength looks structural, not incidental.
Registered nurse pay rose significantly to a metro median of $133,891, well above the $102,581 national figure, alongside solid gains for certified nursing assistants. That divergence tracks the statewide pattern of healthcare and social assistance carrying job growth while other sectors contract, and points to sustained demand for care capacity in the region regardless of broader economic softness.
Skilled trades pay is outperforming the metro's broader wage picture.
Electrician pay rose significantly to $78,000 and warehouse manager pay climbed to $89,500, even as general warehouse/fulfillment associate pay softened. That split suggests the premium is concentrated in specialized and supervisory roles tied to the logistics sector's capital needs, not in entry-level logistics labor broadly.
Median advertised pay by role — Stockton, CA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $34,298 | $37,232 | $39,998 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $32,823 | $37,014 | $39,416 | Moderate increase | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $36,433 | $41,600 | $44,346 | Moderate decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,240 | $75,932 | $86,000 | Moderate increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $35,444 | $40,560 | $47,840 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $38,089 | $41,600 | $44,386 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $67,371 | $78,000 | $86,767 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $37,440 | $41,600 | $45,661 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $39,067 | $43,680 | $46,800 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $33,825 | $37,552 | $43,708 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $42,640 | $48,909 | $54,080 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $38,480 | $45,760 | $49,929 | Moderate increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $69,096 | $73,068 | $75,920 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $106,281 | $133,891 | $145,828 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $146,956 | $177,081 | $191,458 | Significant increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $114,180 | $149,141 | $158,080 | Significant increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $57,294 | $66,777 | $82,739 | Moderate decline | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $78,491 | $100,000 | $108,793 | Significant increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $63,440 | $85,593 | $95,000 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $39,711 | $62,993 | $68,589 | Significant decline | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $79,744 | $94,709 | $94,859 | Significant decline | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $48,880 | $71,210 | $82,734 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $78,492 | $107,150 | $196,651 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $60,100 | $89,500 | $100,625 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $100,042 | $110,290 | $111,013 | Significant increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $64,401 | Stable | Moderate decline |
| Manufacturing | $85,000 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $44,842 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $59,852 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $63,348 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $60,900 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Professional & Business Services | $72,800 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $72,800 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $41,109 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $72,944 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Stockton-Lodi's unemployment rate held near 6.5-6.8% through mid-2026, roughly 1.5 points above the national 4.1% and still among the highest of any large metro, even as monthly job gains collapsed to an average of just 25 positions this year versus 550 in 2025. Softness traces largely to a sharp contraction in professional and business services alongside a cooling warehouse and logistics sector, while healthcare and public-sector education roles have provided the metro's most consistent offsetting momentum.
What it means
Persistently elevated unemployment alongside near-zero net job creation points to a metro economy absorbing labor-supply slack rather than generating new demand, a dynamic that should temper expectations for near-term commercial expansion even as select sectors like healthcare and skilled trades show genuine pay momentum. For commerce leaders evaluating investment timing, the gap between a stalled professional-services sector and strengthening healthcare/registered-nurse wages (up significantly, to a metro median of $133,891) suggests the local recovery is uneven rather than broad-based. Consider evaluating expansion or investment decisions sector-by-sector rather than against a single metro-wide read, since aggregate unemployment figures may obscure meaningfully different trajectories across logistics, healthcare, and professional services.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Stockton's unemployment rate has edged down from 6.8% in July toward 6.4-6.5% more recently; whether this reflects genuine labor-market tightening or continued labor-force exits (mirroring the statewide pattern of falling participation) will matter for how commerce leaders read the headline number.
Emerging pressure point: California's statewide financial activities and professional/business services sectors contracted again in August; continued softness here would extend the metro's weakest local trend and bears watching for its effect on commercial leasing and office-dependent business activity in Stockton.
Policy factor to monitor: California's minimum wage rises to $17.40 per hour on January 1, 2027, a change that will interact with the metro's already-compressed entry-level pay bands in retail, food service, and warehousing; bare cost implications for small and mid-sized local employers are worth tracking without attaching a policy stance.
Potential inflection point: National WARN activity remains elevated among large employers (Amazon, Meta, Verizon among them) even as layoff counts trend slightly below 2025 levels; any announcement affecting Stockton's logistics or distribution footprint, a sector central to the metro's economy, would be a leading indicator worth flagging early.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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