Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Texarkana, TX-Texarkana, AR MSA — September 2026
Texarkana unemployment climbs as Texas job growth outpaces it.
Texarkana's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.4% a year ago even as Texas added jobs at 1.1% annually and manufacturing pay fell sharply in the metro while rising 4.8% statewide.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Texarkana unemployment rate: 4.7% — Up from 4.4% a year ago; 4.5% prior month
- Texas annual job growth: 1.1% — Outpaces national growth by 0.7 points
- Bowie County employment growth: 0.5% — Four-quarter average through Q3 2025
- National real wage growth: 3.0% wages vs 3.4% inflation — Weakest real-wage gap since May 2021
Key takeaways
Metro unemployment rise doesn't match statewide momentum.
Texarkana's 4.7% unemployment rate, up from 4.4% a year ago, runs counter to Texas's broader 1.1% annual job growth and sub-4% statewide rates in several peer metros. The gap suggests local conditions are more sensitive to sector-specific softness than to the state's overall trajectory.
Manufacturing pay decline signals real local sector pressure.
Metro manufacturing production worker pay fell significantly even as Texas manufacturing wages rose 4.8% statewide — one of the sharpest state-metro divergences this month. This is consistent with Bowie County's otherwise modest 0.5% employment growth masking contraction in specific industrial segments.
Skilled trades and office roles show the metro's healthier side.
HVAC technician and administrative assistant advertised pay both rose significantly locally, outperforming comparatively flat national trends in the same roles. That pattern is consistent with steady demand in construction-adjacent and administrative functions even as broader metro unemployment ticks up.
National wage-inflation gap now reaches the local pay picture.
National annual wage growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation — the weakest real-wage position since 2021 — while several Texarkana roles (cashier, delivery driver, food service, teacher) show outright pay declines. Local purchasing power pressure in lower-wage service work appears to compound, not offset, the national trend.
Median advertised pay by role — Texarkana, TX-Texarkana, AR MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,880 | $26,267 | $28,877 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,880 | $24,468 | $25,168 | Moderate decline | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,554 | $35,214 | $37,440 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $65,703 | $81,900 | $90,000 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,120 | $35,485 | $38,480 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,200 | $33,438 | $35,977 | Significant increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $43,421 | $71,345 | $71,345 | Significant decline | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $20,800 | $21,840 | $27,040 | Significant decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $27,857 | $31,949 | $33,280 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker * | $26,276 | $29,685 | $32,760 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $30,631 | $33,280 | $37,200 | Stable | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $33,280 | $39,297 | $43,580 | Significant increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician * | $57,200 | $69,087 | $75,777 | Significant increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $76,357 | $85,782 | $88,012 | Stable | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer * | $113,156 | $152,465 | $167,279 | Moderate increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $100,220 | $136,140 | $154,980 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $56,386 | $62,669 | $67,133 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $79,128 | $79,467 | $84,459 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager * | $54,144 | $72,500 | $83,526 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $46,677 | $60,734 | $71,585 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $70,000 | $83,712 | $98,391 | Moderate decline | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $26,563 | $48,909 | $56,419 | Significant decline | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $38,721 | $86,281 | $119,342 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $48,368 | $70,237 | $81,507 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $79,805 | $97,107 | $109,495 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $38,480 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $70,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $35,859 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $75,528 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $60,884 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $46,887 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $41,189 | Moderate decline | Moderate increase |
| Education & Health Services | $55,829 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,625 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $67,574 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Texarkana's unemployment rate climbed to 4.7% in the most recent reading, up from 4.4% a year earlier, even as Bowie County employment edged up 0.5% year-over-year — a divergence that suggests softening in some corners of the metro economy alongside modest underlying growth. Statewide, construction and professional/business services continue adding jobs at a pace outstripping the nation, but Texarkana's own advertised-pay data shows sharp declines in manufacturing production work and electrician pay, pointing to uneven momentum across the local sector mix rather than a uniform expansion.
What it means
Divergence between a rising local unemployment rate and steady-to-positive advertised pay in office, technical, and skilled-trade roles (administrative assistants up significantly, HVAC technicians up significantly) suggests labor market softening is concentrated in production and lower-wage service work rather than broad-based. For commerce leaders assessing the climate for local investment or expansion, this points to a bifurcated local economy — resilient in professional and skilled-trade segments, weaker in manufacturing and retail-adjacent work — rather than a uniform downturn or upswing. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-specific indicators rather than the headline unemployment rate alone when assessing whether this is a favorable window for local capital commitments.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Texarkana's unemployment rate has risen three consecutive readings (4.4% to 4.5% to 4.7%). Whether the next BLS release confirms a trend or reflects seasonal noise will matter for how commerce leaders read the metro's trajectory relative to the state's stronger headline numbers.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide manufacturing WARN activity (47 notices, 7,811 workers year-to-date) and transportation/logistics layoffs (69 notices, 8,055 workers) are the two largest categories in Texas. Given Texarkana's industrial and logistics corridor positioning, any uptick in regional filings would be an early read on whether state-level softness is reaching the metro.
Policy-relevant factor: Tariff policy and immigration enforcement activity continue to be cited nationally as factors shaping manufacturing and logistics labor costs and availability. Texarkana's reliance on freight and manufacturing employment makes it a useful bellwether for whether these federal-level dynamics show up in local sector data — a bare-facts watch item, not a directional call.
Potential inflection point: National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August, while Texas continues outpacing the nation. Whether Texarkana tracks the state's relative resilience or the national cooling trend over the next two reporting cycles will clarify which narrative actually applies locally.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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