Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Toledo, OH MSA — September 2026
Toledo's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking labor force.
Lucas County unemployment sits near 4.5% and Wood County near 3.6%, but Ohio's statewide loss of 95,000 labor force participants over the past year suggests the improvement reflects workforce exit more than hiring strength.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Lucas County unemployment: 4.5% — vs 3.6% Wood County, 4.2% national
- Ohio labor force change: -95,000 YoY — Despite 39,000 more working-age residents
- Toledo manufacturing employment: 40.8K (May 2026) — Down from 41.5K in April 2026
- National wage vs inflation gap: 3.0% vs 3.4% — First real-wage decline since 2021
Key takeaways
Toledo's low jobless rate masks a shrinking labor pool.
Lucas County unemployment near 4.5% and Wood County near 3.6% looks favorable against the 4.2% national rate, but Ohio's statewide pattern of 95,000 fewer workers in the labor force year-over-year suggests participation decline, not strength, is driving the numbers. Metro-level participation data deserves more weight than the unemployment rate alone when assessing local economic capacity.
Manufacturing's modest pullback fits a statewide pattern, not a local anomaly.
Toledo manufacturing employment eased from 41.5 thousand to 40.8 thousand between April and May even as advertised pay for production workers and assemblers rose moderately, suggesting employers are paying more for a smaller, harder-to-replace workforce. This divergence between headcount and pay is worth tracking as a leading indicator of sector health.
Skilled trades pay is accelerating faster than most other local roles.
Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay both moved up significantly in the Toledo metro, consistent with national trends tied to construction and data-center-linked buildout activity flagged in Ohio's statewide figures. Sustained pay growth in these trades may signal where regional construction investment is concentrating.
Public-sector and healthcare wage gains stand out against a cooling backdrop.
Registered nurse and teacher advertised pay both rose significantly in the metro even as national government employment contracted and wage growth broadly slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation. Local public-sector and healthcare wage resilience may be cushioning household purchasing power even as national real wages erode.
Median advertised pay by role — Toledo, OH MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $24,586 | $29,120 | $31,942 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $24,862 | $29,120 | $31,007 | Moderate decline | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $30,831 | $35,918 | $38,480 | Moderate decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,253 | $78,000 | $92,040 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,971 | $33,280 | $39,520 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $33,280 | $38,162 | $41,600 | Moderate increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $54,375 | $69,844 | $74,930 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,104 | $39,520 | $41,600 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $29,519 | $35,360 | $38,818 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $27,641 | $32,240 | $33,280 | Moderate increase | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $33,280 | $38,480 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $32,406 | $39,317 | $41,600 | Moderate increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $55,942 | $67,600 | $81,120 | Significant increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $79,470 | $91,464 | $97,940 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $89,992 | $121,919 | $143,512 | Moderate decline | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $96,631 | $133,828 | $139,500 | Moderate decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $56,524 | $70,407 | $78,965 | Significant increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $65,088 | $83,541 | $84,455 | Significant increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $49,433 | $65,000 | $70,000 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $44,665 | $54,098 | $55,032 | Significant increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $70,929 | $82,546 | $92,484 | Stable | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $30,462 | $43,750 | $46,846 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $57,787 | $81,817 | $100,000 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $52,327 | $67,000 | $67,500 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $66,947 | $77,788 | $90,728 | Moderate decline | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $73,840 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $63,731 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $33,800 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $58,000 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Information | $85,896 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $51,902 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $54,080 | Moderate decline | Stable |
| Education & Health Services | $52,082 | Stable | Moderate increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,614 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $67,721 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Toledo-area unemployment held near 3.6% in Lucas and Wood counties through mid-2026, tracking below the national 4.2% rate but moving in step with a statewide pattern where falling joblessness reflects labor force exit rather than hiring strength. Manufacturing employment slipped from 41.5 thousand to 40.8 thousand locally between April and May, consistent with Ohio's broader sectoral split favoring construction and health services over factory payrolls.
What it means
Local employment data suggests a metro economy holding steady on paper while losing workforce depth underneath — a dynamic that complicates both public revenue projections and private investment timing. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion should treat a low unemployment rate as only half the picture, since labor force participation softness may limit the available talent pool even when job-seeking looks scarce. Consider cross-referencing any expansion or relocation decision against regional labor force participation trends rather than headline unemployment alone.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Ohio shed labor force participants for a second straight month through August; whether Toledo's Lucas and Wood county figures follow that statewide contraction in the next release will clarify whether local softness is structural or a one-month blip.
Emerging pressure point: National WARN filings have flagged Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle, Tyson Foods, and Spirit Airlines this year, and Ohio logged 18 notices in 90 days led by manufacturing; any new Toledo-specific WARN filing would be the first concrete local test of that trend.
Potential inflection point: National wage growth fell to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021; if that gap persists into Toledo-area wage data, it would mark the first real-wage erosion locally after two years of gains.
Early indicator: Construction and manufacturing pay gains statewide appear linked to data-center buildout; watch for any announced data-center or large industrial project in the Toledo-Wood County corridor as a signal of where that investment is landing regionally.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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