Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Tulsa, OK MSA — October 2026
Tulsa unemployment climbs as job growth stalls near flat.
Tulsa's unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in Q3 2026 from 3.4% a year earlier even as nonfarm employment grew just 0.4%, a split that points to labor force growth outpacing job creation amid an absence of outright job losses.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Tulsa unemployment rate: 4.3% — Up from 3.4% in Q3 2025
- Tulsa nonfarm employment growth: +0.4% — 484,450 jobs, Q3 2026 vs year earlier
- Oklahoma unemployment rate: 4.2% — 32nd nationally, Sept. 2026 (BLS)
- National unemployment rate: 4.1% — Stable since March 2026 (BLS)
Key takeaways
Unemployment rose faster than payrolls grew.
Tulsa's jobless rate increased nine-tenths of a point year-over-year while nonfarm employment grew only 0.4%, a combination that typically reflects labor force entrants outpacing job creation. That distinction matters for how officials characterize the local economy publicly — it is a participation story more than a contraction story.
Technical-role pay pulled back locally while national figures held.
Data Engineer advertised pay fell significantly in Tulsa even as the national median stayed flat, and Software Engineer and Business Analyst pay softened locally against stable national benchmarks. This divergence may reflect a smaller, more concentrated local talent pool for these roles, a distinct dynamic from a broader regional retreat in professional services demand.
Capital investment and labor-market cooling are running in parallel.
Construction on the $1 billion east Tulsa industrial park continues alongside a state employment growth projection of 8.2% through 2032, even as current-quarter hiring growth sits near flat. Commerce leaders should treat these as separate time horizons — near-term softness does not necessarily undercut the metro's medium-term growth case.
Skilled trades pay is outperforming the metro average.
Electrician advertised pay rose moderately in Tulsa to $72,800, nearly matching the national median, while Manufacturing Production Worker pay also moved up moderately. That combination is consistent with sustained demand tied to industrial and construction activity even as white-collar pay signals cool.
Median advertised pay by role — Tulsa, OK MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,880 | $27,469 | $31,200 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $23,175 | $26,875 | $28,080 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $29,905 | $34,320 | $37,440 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $53,182 | $77,220 | $88,400 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,801 | $33,140 | $38,480 | Moderate increase | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $32,733 | $38,480 | $41,600 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $59,582 | $72,800 | $80,860 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $31,848 | $39,520 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $29,732 | $34,830 | $37,332 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $24,953 | $28,238 | $29,694 | Moderate decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $30,687 | $34,320 | $36,665 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,550 | $39,144 | $42,657 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $57,705 | $62,506 | $67,600 | Stable | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $82,559 | $93,239 | $101,831 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $87,136 | $123,924 | $138,314 | Moderate decline | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $82,347 | $106,152 | $122,496 | Significant decline | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $56,678 | $70,000 | $77,500 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $71,095 | $83,234 | $88,560 | Moderate increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $51,048 | $65,036 | $78,727 | Moderate increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $44,810 | $58,815 | $67,806 | Significant increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $72,500 | $72,953 | $72,953 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $29,120 | $44,177 | $50,253 | Significant increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $56,036 | $80,961 | $98,500 | Moderate increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $47,714 | $54,907 | $63,437 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $75,376 | $88,404 | $98,502 | Moderate decline | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $71,162 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $70,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $34,320 | Stable | Moderate decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $62,782 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $53,900 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $54,318 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $63,376 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Education & Health Services | $61,201 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $32,037 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $55,797 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Tulsa's unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in Q3 2026, up nine-tenths of a point from 3.4% a year earlier, even as nonfarm employment edged up 0.4% to 484,450 jobs — a pattern consistent with a labor force absorbing new entrants faster than employers are adding positions. Momentum remains uneven across sectors: a $1 billion east Tulsa industrial park broke ground this year and state projections point to 8.2% metro job growth through 2032, while advertised pay for several office and technical roles — Software Engineer, Data Engineer, Business Analyst, Warehouse Manager — moved down locally even as national figures held flat or firmer.
What it means
Rising unemployment alongside flat-to-positive job counts suggests labor supply is loosening faster than demand is cooling, which typically signals more available talent and less wage pressure for expansion-minded employers even as it raises questions about consumer spending capacity. Divergence between metro and national pay trends in analytical and technical occupations — Data Engineer down significantly locally against a stable national median — points to a local concentration effect worth distinguishing from a broader regional retreat before drawing conclusions about sector health. Commerce leaders evaluating site-selection or expansion announcements should weigh the labor-supply loosening against the capital commitments already underway, such as the east Tulsa industrial park, since the two signals point in different directions on near-term tightness.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether Tulsa's unemployment rate stabilizes near 4.3% or continues climbing toward the 4.2% state and 4.1% national figures converging from below — a plateau would support a participation-driven read over a demand-driven one.
Worth watching: Oklahoma's declining graduate retention rate — 76.5% in 2025, down from 87% in 2023 — bears monitoring for Tulsa specifically, since outmigration of recent graduates would compound labor force effects already visible in the unemployment data.
Potential inflection point: Progress on the east Tulsa industrial park and any announced tenants over the next 60 days will be the clearest test of whether capital commitments translate into measurable payroll growth in subsequent quarters.
Expected: National healthcare and manufacturing hiring strength should show up in Tulsa's sector mix given the metro's existing base in both; local Registered Nurse pay already rose moderately to $93,239, a figure worth tracking against statewide wage trends.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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