Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: VT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Vermont's labor market stays tight as the workforce itself shrinks.
Vermont's unemployment rate sits at a nationally low 2.6% even as the labor force contracts and wage growth of 3.0% barely keeps pace with 3.4% national inflation.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Vermont unemployment rate: 2.6% — 3rd-lowest in U.S.; vs 4.1-4.2% national rate
- Statewide wage growth: 3.0% YoY — to $1,322/week; near 3.4% national inflation
- Labor force contraction: -7,800 workers (-2.2%) — year-over-year, driven by retirements
- Vermont WARN notices: 677 workers — up 88% vs. 2025, concentrated in dairy manufacturing
Key takeaways
Vermont's labor shortage is structural, not cyclical.
Labor force participation has fallen to 62.7% amid an aging population and multi-year outmigration-reversal unwind, a trend distinct from the national picture where participation (61.8%) has simply plateaued. Local economic capacity constraints look likely to persist regardless of how national demand trends move.
Wage gains are keeping pace with inflation, barely.
Statewide average weekly wages rose 3.0% year-over-year to $1,322, tracking close to the national 3.4% inflation rate even as national wage growth has slipped to 3.0% annual average hourly earnings -- its weakest reading since 2021. Local purchasing power for nonmetro Vermont households appears roughly flat rather than improving.
Government job losses mark a shift from the state's traditional stability anchor.
State government shed 600 jobs (-3.2%) and local government 400 jobs (-1.3%), a notable break from the public sector's historic role as a steady employment base in rural Vermont. Commerce leaders should watch whether this reflects budget tightening likely to persist into 2027 planning cycles.
Manufacturing contraction in Franklin County signals a broader sectoral reckoning.
Mass layoffs at St. Albans Creamery, Franklin Foods, and Perrigo in Q2 2026 reflect manufacturing's declining 25-year share of Vermont's economy, with the sector still accounting for 22% of UI claims. Dairy and food manufacturing job losses in a single county illustrate concentration risk for nonmetro regional economies dependent on a handful of large plants.
Median advertised pay by role — VT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $29,924 | $32,927 | $34,970 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $31,720 | $34,320 | $35,630 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,346 | $40,000 | $43,185 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $56,579 | $73,529 | $83,980 | Moderate increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $33,029 | $34,546 | $36,108 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $37,960 | $46,800 | $48,880 | Significant increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $61,127 | $75,920 | $78,630 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $37,362 | $39,520 | $40,557 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,678 | $38,565 | $42,313 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $33,296 | $36,407 | $37,960 | Stable | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $37,521 | $44,720 | $50,960 | Significant decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $40,453 | $46,800 | $49,938 | Moderate increase | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $55,880 | $64,480 | $75,015 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $90,376 | $116,921 | $129,402 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $125,723 | $153,180 | $161,876 | Significant increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $97,127 | $122,273 | $142,695 | Significant decline | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $56,850 | $70,377 | $75,994 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $74,792 | $95,771 | $109,156 | Moderate increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $57,534 | $80,659 | $93,500 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $65,181 | $79,091 | $111,215 | Moderate increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $59,500 | $59,500 | $59,500 | No data | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $45,760 | $65,650 | $70,850 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $69,048 | $90,000 | $109,105 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | — | — | — | No data | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $76,835 | $94,103 | $100,854 | Stable | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $49,920 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Manufacturing | $99,032 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $39,739 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $38,691 | Significant decline | Stable |
| Information | $138,234 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $84,264 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $81,100 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $68,920 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,475 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $68,973 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Vermont's nonmetro counties continue to operate inside a historically tight labor market, with statewide unemployment at 2.6% in August and a labor force still contracting as older workers retire and net population growth stalls. Wage growth of 3.0% year-over-year statewide is running roughly in line with national inflation readings near 3.4%, while summer hiring gains in construction, leisure and hospitality, and local government point to pockets of real momentum even as Chittenden County and manufacturing-heavy counties show softer employment trends.
What it means
Shrinking labor supply rather than weak demand looks like the defining constraint on nonmetro Vermont's economic capacity, which raises different questions for commerce leaders than a typical slowdown would -- namely whether local business expansion plans are realistic given who is available to staff them. Public-sector payroll reductions at the state and local level (-3.2% and -1.3% respectively) and continued manufacturing contraction suggest the region's growth, where it exists, is increasingly carried by construction, hospitality, and healthcare rather than government or production. Local economic development bodies and chambers may find it useful to track labor force participation and multiple-job-holding trends alongside traditional job-count metrics when assessing whether an expanding employer can realistically staff up locally.
Looking ahead
Expected: UVM Health Network layoff impacts are not expected to register in claims data until October, which will be the first real test of whether healthcare -- the region's largest stable employer base -- is beginning to soften.
Emerging pressure point: Vermont WARN notices are up 88% year-over-year through mid-2026 (677 workers vs. prior year), concentrated in dairy and food manufacturing. Watch whether displaced manufacturing workers resurface in construction or hospitality hiring, sectors currently showing the most job growth.
Potential inflection point: November's statewide ballot includes a Right to Collective Bargaining Amendment polling at 65% support, a policy marker worth tracking for commerce leaders assessing the regulatory environment rather than a hiring issue per se.
Worth watching: Continued state and local government payroll contraction, paired with national-level government job losses (-17,000 in September, -216,000 over the past year), raises the question of whether public-sector spending remains a reliable source of local economic activity in nonmetro counties.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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