Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: WA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Nonmetro Washington's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.
Nonmetropolitan Washington counties posted unemployment as low as 3.6% in Skamania and 4.0% in Cowlitz this September, but state economists attribute the decline to labor force contraction amid a 3,445-worker agricultural layoff in Brewster.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Nonmetro county unemployment range: 3.6%–5.6% — Skamania (3.6%) to Wahkiakum (5.6%), Sept. 2026
- Statewide unemployment trend: 4.8% — Third straight monthly decline, down 0.1 pt
- Largest single WARN filing (nonmetro): 3,445 workers — Gebbers Farms, Brewster, effective Nov. 25
- Projected nonmetro job growth, 2024–2029: 0.81% — Northwest WA, below WA statewide average
Key takeaways
Lower unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.
Nonmetro counties from Grays Harbor to Cowlitz posted unemployment declines in September, but state economists attribute the statewide pattern to labor force contraction. Commerce leaders should treat the falling rate as a participation story.
Agricultural layoffs are seasonal, but their scale is notable.
The 3,445-worker Gebbers Farms WARN notice and additional filings at Columbia Reach Chiawana Orchards and Pacific Ag Services reflect the harvest-cycle layoff pattern typical of nonmetro Washington agriculture. The scale this cycle is large enough to register in county-level labor force data even if temporary.
Wage gains are concentrated in care and skilled-trade work.
Advertised pay for certified nursing assistants ($51,678, up moderately) and electricians ($79,713, up significantly) outpaces broader metro wage trends, suggesting continued local demand in health support and construction trades even as agriculture and office-support roles soften. This divergence is a more reliable local momentum signal than the topline unemployment figure.
Growth projections lag the state average by a wide margin.
Northwest Washington's projected 0.81% job growth through 2029 trails Washington's overall trajectory substantially, consistent with a nonmetro economy more exposed to agricultural cycles and less diversified than Puget Sound metros. Economic development planning should account for this structural gap.
Median advertised pay by role — WA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $34,486 | $36,660 | $38,480 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $35,163 | $37,032 | $38,480 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $35,630 | $43,160 | $43,680 | Moderate increase | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $60,060 | $74,448 | $85,000 | Moderate increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $32,185 | $34,797 | $36,838 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $37,672 | $43,293 | $47,840 | Moderate decline | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $67,230 | $79,713 | $91,520 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $36,920 | $40,560 | $43,306 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $37,440 | $42,640 | $46,800 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $36,356 | $47,340 | $49,650 | Significant increase | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $43,680 | $51,678 | $53,394 | Moderate increase | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $41,296 | $48,880 | $54,072 | Moderate decline | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $62,239 | $70,000 | $74,997 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $95,077 | $116,314 | $124,800 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $121,050 | $142,820 | $156,557 | Moderate decline | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $105,620 | $118,408 | $127,295 | Significant decline | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $61,786 | $75,205 | $85,210 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $82,303 | $95,071 | $105,000 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $63,514 | $76,000 | $91,585 | Moderate decline | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $44,200 | $50,273 | $57,523 | Significant decline | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $63,095 | $88,000 | $90,152 | Significant decline | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $41,905 | $62,288 | $77,278 | Moderate increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $57,540 | $90,220 | $112,566 | Stable | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $62,400 | $76,250 | $80,000 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $86,817 | $99,708 | $101,424 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $63,440 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Manufacturing | $79,314 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $42,255 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $45,977 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Information | $59,400 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $56,971 | Significant decline | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $82,761 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $71,827 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,686 | Moderate decline | Significant decline |
| Government | $71,895 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nonmetropolitan Washington counties posted a broad-based unemployment decline in September, with rates falling to 4.3% in Grays Harbor, 4.0% in Cowlitz, and 3.6% in Skamania, even as the state's labor force contracted and announced layoffs concentrated in agriculture, food processing, and hospitality. Seasonal volatility in fruit and farm operations — including a 3,445-worker WARN filing at Gebbers Farms in Brewster effective late November — is colliding with a structurally slow growth outlook, as Northwest Washington's job market is projected to expand just 0.81% through 2029, well below the state average.
What it means
Falling unemployment paired with a shrinking labor force signals tightening availability, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing against a thinner local talent pool. Concentrated agricultural layoffs create short-term seasonal churn without reflecting underlying demand weakness, while advertised pay gains in food service, nursing, and skilled trades point to where wage pressure is building locally. Local economic development leaders and chambers may want to track whether displaced agricultural and food-processing workers move into adjacent sectors such as warehousing or healthcare support, where advertised pay is already climbing.
Looking ahead
Expected release: October county-level unemployment data is due November 24 from the Washington Employment Security Department; watch whether the three-month declining trend in Grays Harbor, Lewis, and Cowlitz counties holds once seasonal agricultural layoffs fully register.
Emerging pressure point: Agricultural and food-processing WARN filings have affected well over 4,000 nonmetro workers since mid-October; local workforce boards and chambers should watch whether these workers re-enter the labor force in healthcare, warehousing, or trades, where advertised pay is rising.
Worth watching: Washington's minimum wage rises 3.5% to $17.73 per hour on January 1, a change that will land directly on nonmetro retail, food service, and hospitality employers already navigating thin margins and seasonal volatility.
Potential inflection point: Statewide public-sector job losses (roughly 10,400 in September) bear watching locally, given nonmetro counties' reliance on public employment and services for economic stability relative to metro peers.
Sources
- Washington Employment Security Department — September county unemployment rates for Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Skamania, Wahkiakum
- Washington OFM WARN Notice Database — Gebbers Farms WARN notice for 3,445 workers effective Nov. 25, 2026
- Washington Employment Security Department — Northwest Washington job growth projected at 0.81% through 2029
- Washington Employment Security Department — Statewide labor force contraction cited as driver of falling unemployment
- Washington Department of Labor & Industries — Washington minimum wage rising to $17.73/hour Jan. 1, 2027
- Washington Employment Security Department — Washington public sector lost roughly 10,400 jobs in September 2026
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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