Labor Market Pulse · Human Resources · October 2026
Human Resources Labor Market Report: Waco, TX MSA — October 2026
Waco's jobless rate falls as its labor pool shrinks.
Waco unemployment dropped to 4.0% in September even as the metro shed 700 jobs and average weekly wages rose just $19 year-over-year, pointing to a labor pool tightening faster than demand.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Waco MSA unemployment rate: 4.0% — Down from 4.3% in August, below Texas's 4.4%
- MSA employment change: -700 jobs — Month-over-month, Sept. 2026, total 142,500 employed
- Avg weekly wage growth (Q1 2026): +$19 YoY — Fell $49 from Q4 2025, signaling compensation pullback
- McLennan County unemployment: 4.8% — Above 4.0% MSA rate, widest county-metro gap this year
Key takeaways
Waco's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking labor pool.
Unemployment dropped to 4.0% while the metro lost 700 jobs and civilian labor force contracted to 148,000 — a pattern more consistent with workers exiting the labor force than employers expanding. Hiring plans built on falling unemployment alone risk overestimating available talent supply.
HR Business Partner pay is moving the wrong direction locally.
Metro median advertised pay for HR Business Partner sits at $68,495 and trending down, against a national median of $83,900 trending up — a $15,000+ gap that has widened this cycle. Organizations competing for HR talent against remote or out-of-market employers may be underpricing the role.
Manufacturing's labor appetite is outrunning wage growth.
Time Manufacturing/Versalift alone advertised over 150 job ads at October's fall hiring fair, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), while regional average weekly wages rose just $19 year-over-year. Volume-driven hiring without matching wage movement is a setup for high early turnover in manufacturing roles.
Benefits Manager pay strength points to growing plan complexity.
Metro median for Benefits Manager sits at $121,994, above the $118,618 national figure, even as most other HR roles locally hold flat. That premium is consistent with employers paying for expertise to navigate federal benefit limit changes — FSA, dependent care, and 401(k) threshold increases — landing simultaneously this quarter.
Median advertised pay by role — Waco, TX MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation Analyst * | $71,545 | $98,816 | $110,712 | Stable | $100,798 |
| HR Business Partner | $48,062 | $68,495 | $71,356 | Moderate decline | $83,900 |
| Benefits Manager * | $88,278 | $121,994 | $134,032 | Stable | $118,618 |
| HRIS Analyst * | $74,830 | $90,857 | $99,624 | Stable | $95,000 |
| HR Coordinator | $36,672 | $48,511 | $54,080 | Moderate increase | $50,460 |
| Recruiter | $46,081 | $64,556 | $76,850 | Stable | $67,234 |
| Payroll Specialist | $46,221 | $56,289 | $67,823 | Stable | $61,103 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Local market conditions
Waco's unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in September — down from 4.3% in August and below the Texas rate of 4.4% — even as the metro shed 700 jobs month-over-month, a combination consistent with employers holding headcount flat while fewer residents actively search for work. Education and health services continues to anchor the region at 27% of total employment, while Time Manufacturing/Versalift advertised more than 150 openings at the October hiring fair, measured by job ads, which track demand and often cover several openings each, signaling manufacturing's outsized local footprint remains a persistent draw on a tightening labor pool.
What it means
Falling unemployment alongside job losses points to a labor pool shrinking faster than demand, which typically hardens into retention pressure before it shows up in advertised pay — HR Business Partner pay locally is already down moderately even as the same role climbs nationally, a divergence worth scrutinizing for flight risk among mid-career HR talent. Average weekly wages rose only $19 year-over-year in Q1 and actually fell $49 from Q4 2025, suggesting compensation budgets are tightening even as the labor market itself tightens. Consider reviewing retention economics for roles where local pay has stalled or declined against national trajectories, since that gap is the clearest early signal of where competitors could poach.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether McLennan County's higher 4.8% unemployment rate — notably above the 4.0% MSA figure — begins converging with the broader metro number, which would suggest county-level labor supply is loosening faster than headline data shows.
Worth watching: Texas's Responsible AI Governance Act requires inventorying any tool that screens, ranks, or scores candidates; Waco employers using applicant tracking systems with automated scoring should confirm compliance status before Q4 hiring pushes.
Emerging pressure point: Q1 2026 average weekly wages fell $49 from Q4 2025 even as unemployment tightened — a divergence worth tracking into Q4 data to see if wage growth reaccelerates or stays suppressed despite labor scarcity.
Potential inflection point: Texas's 22% surge in temporary staffing payrolls statewide suggests permanent-role competition could intensify in Waco as firms convert temp capacity to direct hire; monitor local postings for a shift from contract to permanent job ads.
Sources
- Texas Workforce Commission — Waco MSA unemployment fell to 4.0% in September, down from 4.3%
- Texas Workforce Commission — MSA employment fell by 700 jobs to 142,500 total
- Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas — Average weekly wage rose $19 YoY in Q1 2026, fell $49 from Q4 2025
- KWTX — Time Manufacturing/Versalift advertised 150+ openings at fall hiring fair
- Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas — McLennan County unemployment at 4.8% in September
- Texas Legislature — Texas Responsible AI Governance Act requires AI hiring tool inventory
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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