Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Waco, TX MSA — September 2026
Waco wages slip as Texas growth accelerates elsewhere.
Waco's average weekly wage fell to $1,213 in the first quarter even as statewide Texas private wages rose 3.9% year-over-year, with local manufacturing down 5.8% while the state sector expands.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Waco unemployment rate: 4.2% — vs 4.0% Texas, 4.2% national
- Waco avg weekly wage: $1,213 — down $49 vs Q4 2025, despite +3.9% TX
- Waco manufacturing employment: -5.8% YoY — vs statewide manufacturing acceleration
- Waco annual job growth: 0.8% — vs 1.1% Texas, below Dallas Fed 2.0% forecast
Key takeaways
Waco wages are moving opposite the state trend.
Texas private hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, but Waco's average weekly wage fell $49 quarter-over-quarter to $1,213. Local purchasing power and consumer spending capacity may be softening even as statewide figures suggest broad acceleration.
Manufacturing's local slide outpaces the state's rebound.
Waco manufacturing fell 8.1% quarter-over-quarter and 5.8% year-over-year, while Texas manufacturing activity accelerated statewide in September with stronger production and new orders. Divergence this sharp suggests a local, not sector-wide, dynamic worth tracking for its effect on the metro's industrial tax base and supplier network.
Healthcare concentration is doing the heavy lifting.
Education and Health Services alone accounts for 27% of Waco's total employment, and advertised pay for Registered Nurses and CNAs/Home Health Aides both rose significantly this month. A metro this reliant on one sector for stability carries limited cushion if healthcare demand or funding shifts.
Flat headline numbers obscure a slower underlying trend.
Waco's 0.8% annual job growth and unchanged unemployment rate read as stability, but they sit well below both the Texas statewide pace (1.1%) and the Dallas Fed's upgraded 2.0% state forecast. Momentum language built on state or national data would overstate what is actually happening locally.
Median advertised pay by role — Waco, TX MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,676 | $27,546 | $33,092 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $22,880 | $26,774 | $27,463 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,014 | $36,043 | $39,520 | Moderate decline | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $54,733 | $76,759 | $87,230 | Moderate decline | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $28,760 | $31,469 | $38,630 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $32,520 | $40,560 | $40,581 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $58,240 | $68,640 | $71,345 | Stable | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $32,240 | $34,330 | $37,124 | Significant decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $30,160 | $33,280 | $36,571 | Significant decline | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $24,635 | $29,755 | $31,200 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $31,997 | $41,403 | $43,651 | Significant increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $30,080 | $36,916 | $38,784 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $48,880 | $63,639 | $66,509 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $82,108 | $98,841 | $107,978 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $104,475 | $140,113 | $158,433 | Moderate decline | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $106,866 | $142,070 | $142,070 | Moderate increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $57,500 | $73,012 | $84,144 | Moderate increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $67,138 | $81,358 | $85,091 | Significant increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $42,564 | $57,999 | $58,149 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $46,677 | $60,734 | $71,585 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $70,000 | $83,712 | $98,391 | Moderate decline | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $38,467 | $56,640 | $59,913 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $47,320 | $72,647 | $81,769 | Stable | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $48,368 | $70,237 | $81,507 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $69,205 | $75,838 | $77,663 | Significant decline | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $57,769 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $58,816 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $38,471 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $60,671 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $57,854 | Significant decline | Moderate increase |
| Financial Activities | $48,232 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $59,315 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $60,168 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $29,700 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $66,682 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Waco MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September with nonfarm payrolls essentially flat, as the region's historically dominant Education and Health Services sector (27% of total employment) absorbs most net growth while Manufacturing continues to contract, down 5.8% year-over-year. Average weekly wages fell to $1,213 in the first quarter, down $49 quarter-over-quarter, a divergence from Texas's statewide private wage growth of 3.9% that points to Waco's industry mix, not statewide momentum, as the binding constraint on local pay growth.
What it means
Flat payrolls paired with falling average weekly wages suggest Waco's expansion is running cooler than the Texas average, meaning commerce leaders evaluating local investment or expansion timing should weight metro-specific data over statewide headlines that currently overstate local momentum. Manufacturing's quarterly decline alongside healthcare's continued dominance signals a local economy increasingly dependent on a single sector for stability, a concentration risk worth factoring into any assessment of commercial diversification or civic planning. Consider evaluating local investment decisions against Waco-specific wage and employment trends rather than Texas-level aggregates, which currently mask softer local conditions.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Waco's manufacturing contraction (down 5.8% year-over-year) runs counter to Texas's statewide manufacturing acceleration in September. Whether this is a temporary metro-specific dip or a structural decline will shape how economic development leaders position industrial recruitment efforts over the next two quarters.
Potential inflection point: Average weekly wages dropped $49 quarter-over-quarter even as the state recorded accelerating wage growth. A second consecutive quarterly decline would suggest a local pattern distinct from Texas's broader wage story, relevant to any public commentary on metro cost-of-living or affordability.
Early indicator: National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. Whether that national squeeze shows up in Waco's already-softening wage data over the next reporting cycle is a signal worth tracking for consumer spending forecasts.
Expected: Texas WARN filings are down sharply year-over-year statewide (45% fewer affected workers), a stabilizing signal. Confirmation that Waco mirrors this low-layoff pattern, rather than diverging as it has on wages, would help clarify whether local softness is isolated to pay or extends to job security.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Waco MSA unemployment at 4.2%, nonfarm payrolls flat in September
- Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas — Education/Health Services 27% of Waco employment, manufacturing down 5.8% YoY
- Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas — Waco average weekly wage $1,213, down $49 quarter-over-quarter
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — Texas private hourly earnings up 3.9% year-over-year
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas — Texas manufacturing activity accelerated in September statewide
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — National wage growth at 3.0% vs 3.4% inflation, weakest since 2021
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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