Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA MSA — October 2026
Waterloo's tight labor market signals worker scarcity.
The Waterloo-Cedar Falls labor force shrank from 91.2k to 87.2k in three months even as unemployment held near 3.5%-3.8%, while Registered Nurse pay jumped to $107,776 and Electrician pay fell to $66,266 locally.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- MSA labor force: 87.2k — Down from 91.2k in Nov. 2025
- Black Hawk County unemployment: 3.5% — vs. 4.2% U.S. rate (Sept. 2026)
- Iowa labor force participation: 66.9% — Down from 67.8% a year earlier
- Registered Nurse advertised pay: $107,776 — Up significantly, above $102,252 national
Key takeaways
Low unemployment here reflects a shrinking labor pool.
MSA labor force fell from 91.2k to 87.2k between November 2025 and February 2026 even as the jobless rate stayed near historic lows. That combination — fewer workers alongside a steady job base — complicates any narrative that treats the metro's 3.5-3.8% unemployment rate as straightforward economic strength.
Healthcare wages are pulling away from trade and construction pay.
Registered Nurse advertised pay climbed to $107,776 locally, a significant increase outpacing the national median, while Electrician pay dropped to $66,266, a significant decline against a rising national figure. Divergence of this size may signal where local economic investment and workforce training dollars are generating the clearest returns.
Iowa's statewide wage data understates local resilience.
Iowa's average weekly wage fell 1.7% year-over-year statewide, yet Black Hawk County's $1,167 average weekly wage and $25.35 average hourly pay point to a metro economy performing somewhat better than the state aggregate. Commerce leaders citing state figures risk underselling local conditions to prospective investors.
Manufacturing headwinds are a statewide signal worth tracking locally.
Iowa recorded 54 manufacturing WARN notices affecting 4,255 employees year-to-date even as national manufacturing employment grew modestly. Given John Deere's centrality to the Waterloo-Cedar Falls economy, any statewide manufacturing softening bears direct relevance to the metro's industrial base.
Median advertised pay by role — Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $22,602 | $27,629 | $32,760 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $25,255 | $28,080 | $30,270 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $35,974 | $46,956 | $49,483 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $61,517 | $80,000 | $94,545 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $27,560 | $31,333 | $33,855 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $38,314 | $42,244 | $49,026 | Moderate decline | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $57,560 | $66,266 | $69,526 | Significant decline | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $32,897 | $40,782 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,800 | $37,020 | $39,520 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $32,208 | $34,008 | $35,169 | Moderate increase | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $35,028 | $38,101 | $40,878 | Moderate decline | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $33,800 | $40,000 | $44,175 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $61,467 | $77,792 | $81,120 | Stable | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $82,577 | $107,776 | $117,414 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $95,000 | $121,190 | $136,602 | Significant increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $107,688 | $107,689 | $107,689 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $56,932 | $75,000 | $89,375 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $68,037 | $74,892 | $79,500 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $48,534 | $51,317 | $66,941 | Significant decline | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $48,975 | $67,351 | $77,816 | Significant increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $64,060 | $94,434 | $101,503 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $30,030 | $49,759 | $60,360 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $56,195 | $71,903 | $81,305 | Significant decline | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $60,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $74,819 | $93,168 | $100,370 | Moderate increase | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $51,646 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $61,421 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $34,320 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $57,750 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $54,798 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $57,646 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $71,198 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $90,451 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $33,034 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $63,328 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Black Hawk County unemployment held near 3.5% through mid-2026 while the broader Waterloo-Cedar Falls MSA labor force has contracted from 91.2k in November 2025 to roughly 87.2k by February 2026, a drawdown consistent with Iowa's statewide participation decline from 67.8% to 66.9% driven by retirements and workers aged 45-54 exiting the labor force. Healthcare and manufacturing anchor local economic activity — MercyOne continues adding clinical roles across nursing, imaging, and therapy, while John Deere and Tyson Foods remain the metro's largest private employers even as statewide manufacturing WARN filings (4,255 affected workers year-to-date) signal uneven conditions in the sector nationally and in-state.
What it means
Labor-force contraction alongside stable unemployment indicates the metro's limiting factor is worker availability — a dynamic economic development corps and chambers should treat as a planning constraint for any expansion pitch to prospective employers, and as a structural condition rather than a cyclical blip. Wage divergence is notable: Registered Nurse advertised pay rose to a metro median of $107,776 (up significantly, outpacing the $102,252 national figure), while Electrician pay fell to $66,266 locally against a rising $71,835 national median, suggesting trade and construction wage competitiveness may be eroding relative to healthcare. Commerce leaders and policy economists should consider monitoring labor force participation trends alongside unemployment when assessing whether the metro's low jobless rate reflects strength or scarcity.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether the MSA labor force stabilizes or continues contracting in the next two releases. A continued decline below 87k would reinforce that worker availability is the metro's binding constraint on growth.
Emerging pressure point: Iowa's 45-54 age cohort is leaving the labor force at the fastest rate of any demographic group. If this pattern holds locally, it narrows the experienced-worker pool available to manufacturing and skilled trades at exactly the moment construction and healthcare employment are hitting record highs statewide.
Worth watching: Statewide manufacturing WARN activity (4,255 affected workers year-to-date) warrants monitoring for any filings tied to Black Hawk County employers. John Deere's scale in the metro makes even modest local manufacturing disruption disproportionately visible in county employment data.
Potential inflection point: National real wage growth turned negative (median earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth) while Iowa's average weekly wage also declined year-over-year. If local wage trends follow the state pattern, consumer spending power in the metro may soften even as headline employment appears stable.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Waterloo-Cedar Falls MSA labor force fell from 91.2k to 87.2k, Nov 2025-Feb 2026
- USA Facts / BLS County Data — Black Hawk County unemployment rate at 3.5% in May 2026
- Iowa Workforce Development — Iowa labor force participation fell to 66.9% in September 2026, down from 67.8%
- USA Facts — Iowa average weekly wage fell 1.7% year-over-year to $1,065
- LayoffIQ — Iowa manufacturing WARN filings: 54 notices affecting 4,255 employees year-to-date
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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