Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA — October 2026
Youngstown's jobless rate pulls away from Ohio's, payrolls keep slipping.
Mahoning County's 4.7% and Trumbull's 4.8% September unemployment rates sit well above Ohio's 3.4% statewide figure, while metro payrolls fell to 166,100 in July, down 1,200 from June.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Mahoning/Trumbull unemployment: 4.7% / 4.8% — vs 3.4% Ohio statewide, September 2026
- Metro nonfarm payrolls: 166,100 — Down 1,200 from June 2026 (July reading)
- Metro avg weekly wage: $1,059 — vs $1,654 national average, Q1 2026
- Ohio labor force participation: 61.2% — vs 61.8% national rate, September 2026
Key takeaways
Mahoning Valley unemployment is diverging further from the state.
Trumbull's 4.8% and Mahoning's 4.7% September rates sit roughly 1.4 points above Ohio's 3.4%, and the gap has persisted and widened through most of 2026. That pattern is consistent with a local economy whose underlying industrial base is cooling faster than the statewide trend.
Payroll contraction preceded the wage story everyone is watching.
July's drop to 166,100 nonfarm jobs, down 1,200 month-over-month, came before this month's CPI acceleration, so wage-vs-inflation pressure is layering onto an already-shrinking employment base locally. That sequencing points to a structural shift in the metro's trajectory spanning multiple months.
Skilled trades and clinical pay are pulling away from clerical and logistics roles.
HVAC Technician pay rose significantly to $105,000 locally, well above the $71,406 national median, while Administrative Assistant and Warehouse Manager pay both fell moderately-to-significantly in the metro. The split suggests local demand is concentrating in scarce technical skill even as the broader employment base softens.
The region's wage gap with the nation is a decades-old structural fact.
First-quarter 2026 average weekly wages of $1,059 versus $1,654 nationally reflect a long-standing structural gap, but it means any national inflation reading lands harder on Mahoning Valley household budgets than the national average implies.
Median advertised pay by role — Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $23,392 | $27,990 | $31,767 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $24,440 | $27,162 | $29,494 | Moderate decline | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $31,698 | $38,813 | $40,000 | Moderate increase | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $57,200 | $83,200 | $94,206 | Moderate decline | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,120 | $32,781 | $38,480 | Stable | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $31,737 | $35,725 | $41,600 | Moderate decline | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $61,007 | $72,800 | $73,861 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $32,280 | $37,440 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $27,309 | $33,930 | $36,717 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $27,556 | $29,192 | $30,867 | Significant decline | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $31,951 | $37,440 | $41,600 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $32,676 | $38,606 | $42,640 | Moderate decline | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $67,600 | $105,000 | $105,000 | Significant increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $77,352 | $90,254 | $95,582 | Moderate increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer * | $109,020 | $148,707 | $163,905 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer * | $97,990 | $130,000 | $147,773 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $53,076 | $61,648 | $75,000 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,219 | $82,375 | $86,178 | Significant increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $41,647 | $59,177 | $65,000 | Stable | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $47,328 | $59,245 | $68,739 | Moderate increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $71,747 | $82,821 | $93,502 | Moderate increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $30,134 | $44,750 | $51,621 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $54,656 | $68,590 | $80,087 | Moderate decline | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager | $52,573 | $52,937 | $52,937 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $90,833 | $96,936 | $97,164 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $52,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $44,720 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $33,615 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $57,200 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $51,500 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $45,382 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $41,004 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $51,055 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $31,043 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $65,923 | Stable | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Mahoning and Trumbull counties posted September unemployment of 4.7% and 4.8% respectively, well above Ohio's 3.4% rate, while Youngstown-Warren nonfarm payrolls fell to 166,100 in July, down 1,200 from June, pointing to a metro economy losing momentum even as the state and nation held closer to trend. Local wage data compounds the picture: first-quarter 2026 average weekly wages ran $1,059 versus $1,654 nationally, a gap that predates this month's inflation readings and means Mahoning Valley households absorb the same CPI pressure as the rest of the country on a materially thinner paycheck.
What it means
Widening gap between metro and state unemployment signals a local economy decoupling from Ohio's broader (if softening) stability, which matters for site-selection conversations and public investment prioritization more than for any single payroll decision. Advertised pay data showing HVAC Technician (+significant, $105,000 metro median) and Registered Nurse (+moderate, $90,254) climbing against a backdrop of falling Administrative Assistant ($38,606, down moderate) and Warehouse Manager ($52,937, down significant) pay suggests the local labor market is rewarding scarce technical and clinical skill while clerical and logistics-management roles soften. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider tracking this sector divergence when evaluating which incentive packages or workforce-training investments are likely to reach the parts of the local labor force most exposed to payroll contraction.
Looking ahead
Expected release: October county-level unemployment data arrives November 20 from ODJFS; a reading near or above September's 4.7-4.8% would confirm the metro is tracking below the state's modest stabilization.
Emerging pressure point: Ohio's statewide labor force participation rate (61.2%) already trails the national rate (61.8%), and if Mahoning Valley follows the state's pattern of workers exiting the labor force, local employment counts could understate the real slack in the regional economy.
Worth watching: Manufacturing led Ohio's 2026 WARN filings with 23 notices and 3,159 affected workers statewide; any new filing touching Mahoning or Trumbull County manufacturing employers would be a direct test of whether the metro's July payroll decline is continuing into Q4.
Early indicator: Statewide growth in data-center and technology-adjacent engineering roles has been concentrated in specific metros; watch whether any of that investment pattern reaches the Youngstown-Warren corridor or stays concentrated in larger Ohio metros.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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