Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Great Falls, MT MSA — September 2026
Great Falls holds steady at full employment, but growth stays elusive.
Cascade County unemployment sat at 3.0% in July against a 4.1% national rate, yet Montana's statewide employment fell 0.3% in 2025 even as wages rose a nation-leading 5.4%.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Cascade County unemployment: 3.0% — vs 4.1% national, July 2026
- Montana employment change, 2025: -0.3% — First annual decline since 2020
- Montana wage growth, 2025: 5.4% — No. 1 nationally vs 3.4% U.S. average
- Montana avg weekly wage: $1,229 — Ranks 48th nationally despite growth lead
Key takeaways
Full employment without job growth defines this market.
Cascade County unemployment near 3.0% looks tight, but Montana's statewide employment fell 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force grew — a sign the local economy is stable, not expanding. That distinction matters more for investment timing than the headline rate alone.
Federal and healthcare employment carry disproportionate weight here.
Malmstrom Air Force Base and federal civilian jobs account for over half of basic industry income locally, with healthcare adding over 1,200 jobs statewide in 2025 — the largest hospital employment gain since 2016. Any shift in federal posture or healthcare system expansion would move the local economy more than most other single sectors combined.
Montana's wage story is better than its wage level.
Montana ranked first nationally for wage growth in 2025 at 5.4%, yet still ranks 48th in absolute average weekly wages at $1,229. Local commerce leaders should read strong wage growth figures in context — they reflect a lower starting base, not a market overheating.
Manufacturing softness contrasts with construction and healthcare strength.
Statewide manufacturing employment fell 2.8% and mining dropped nearly 13% following the Sibanye-Stillwater closure, while construction labor advertised pay in Great Falls rose moderately. The divergence points to a two-speed local economy where physical infrastructure and care-sector activity are absorbing demand that industrial production is shedding.
Median advertised pay by role — Great Falls, MT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $29,120 | $32,965 | $42,917 | Moderate decline | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $25,453 | $29,155 | $31,890 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $33,163 | $39,104 | $39,520 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $53,040 | $77,500 | $87,750 | Moderate decline | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $29,601 | $32,659 | $37,320 | Significant decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,212 | $44,720 | $49,920 | Moderate increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $65,894 | $71,029 | $119,600 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $35,360 | $35,360 | $35,360 | Significant decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,270 | $35,360 | $37,587 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $29,836 | $29,921 | $34,921 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $38,002 | $40,259 | $42,973 | Moderate decline | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $35,360 | $39,728 | $41,600 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $87,500 | $87,500 | $87,500 | Stable | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $86,163 | $108,934 | $120,000 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $108,624 | $121,936 | $139,900 | Significant increase | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer * | $99,189 | $145,000 | $159,248 | Significant increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $52,328 | $55,850 | $60,000 | Moderate decline | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $65,752 | $78,976 | $79,021 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $62,350 | $75,169 | $77,147 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $43,369 | $57,996 | $70,334 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $73,679 | $96,224 | $101,982 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $32,240 | $50,520 | $55,900 | Significant decline | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $62,305 | $88,101 | $95,681 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $45,691 | $48,405 | $49,568 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $80,012 | $94,586 | $110,189 | Significant increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $58,224 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $87,496 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $38,643 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $41,340 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $55,186 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $56,872 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $74,405 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $99,126 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $33,863 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Government | $63,428 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Cascade County's unemployment rate sat at 3.0% in July 2026, well below the national 4.1% reading, as Malmstrom Air Force Base and healthcare employment continue to anchor a labor market still outperforming national and even many statewide peers. Montana's broader "no-hire, no-fire" pattern — statewide employment down 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force hit a record 577,800 — is consistent with Great Falls conditions, where federal civilian payrolls, manufacturing (10% of basic industry income), and healthcare (11%) are doing the work of stabilizing a metro economy that shows little fresh hiring momentum.
What it means
Flat statewide hiring alongside sub-3% county unemployment suggests Great Falls is operating near full labor utilization without the job creation that typically signals expansion, a combination that favors businesses planning steady operations over those betting on rapid local growth. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or expansion timing should weigh that Montana trails nationally in average weekly wages (48th) despite leading in wage growth (5.4% in 2025), a split that keeps labor costs comparatively contained even as workers see real purchasing-power gains — consider reviewing how this wage-cost gap compares to peer metros before finalizing 2027 investment or facility decisions.
Looking ahead
Expected release: BLS metro-level data for Great Falls MSA covering September conditions is due October 20, 2026, alongside Montana's statewide August-to-September comparison. Watch whether the county holds its sub-3.5% range or shows the slight softening seen in national August-September payroll revisions.
Worth watching: National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation — the first real-wage erosion since 2021. If that national pattern reaches Montana's $1,229 average weekly wage, it would reverse a two-year run of local purchasing-power gains relevant to consumer spending forecasts.
Potential inflection point: Only four Montana urban counties saw 2025 job growth (Flathead, Gallatin, Yellowstone, Silver Bow); Cascade County was not among them. Economic development leaders should track whether any sector shift — healthcare expansion, federal spending changes, or construction activity — moves Great Falls into that growth cohort over the next two quarters.
Emerging pressure point: Statewide, 58,000 Montana workers (6% of the labor force) remain sidelined by childcare constraints or underemployment. Local labor force participation data worth monitoring as a constraint on how much slack genuinely exists in the Great Falls labor pool despite a low headline unemployment rate.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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