Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Great Falls, MT MSA — October 2026
Great Falls holds steady as Montana's labor force quietly shrinks.
Cascade County unemployment sits at 3.0%, well below the national 4.1%, even as Montana lost 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year and labor-force participation slipped to 62.6%.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Cascade County unemployment: 3.0% — vs. 4.1% national, July 2026
- Montana annual job change: -5,300 jobs — First annual decline since 2020
- Montana labor-force participation: 62.6% — Down from 63.1% a year ago
- Cascade County avg. weekly wage: $1,126 — Q1 2026, per BLS QCEW
Key takeaways
Full employment coexists with a shrinking labor pool statewide.
Montana's 3.1% unemployment rate ranks among the nation's lowest, yet the state lost 5,300 jobs over the past year and participation fell to 62.6%. For Great Falls, this points to a labor market defined by scarcity of available workers amid continued economic demand.
Public-sector staffing strain shows up in the Cascade County Sheriff's Office.
Four employee resignations this fall forced operational changes limiting detention center inmate populations, following hiring events in April and May. Localized public-sector staffing gaps of this kind can affect service delivery well before broader employment statistics register any change.
Skilled-trades wages are outrunning the broader metro pay picture.
Electrician pay rose significantly to $79,168 locally against a stable national median of $71,835, and construction laborer pay climbed significantly to $48,880. This divergence is consistent with continued demand tied to construction and infrastructure activity even as sectors like manufacturing and retail show flat or declining advertised pay.
Healthcare pay strength contrasts with softer allied-health signals.
Registered nurse pay rose significantly to $112,429, consistent with Montana's statewide 5.4% healthcare employment growth, while certified nursing assistant pay fell moderately to $39,821. Divergence within the same sector suggests uneven demand pressure across healthcare hiring.
Median advertised pay by role — Great Falls, MT MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $28,786 | $32,980 | $42,652 | Moderate decline | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,409 | $30,058 | $33,280 | Moderate increase | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $33,280 | $39,520 | $39,520 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $53,040 | $79,168 | $87,875 | Moderate decline | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,187 | $34,018 | $37,440 | Moderate increase | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $37,274 | $48,880 | $49,920 | Significant increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $66,019 | $79,040 | $116,974 | Significant increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $35,360 | $35,360 | $35,360 | Moderate decline | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,270 | $35,818 | $37,380 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $28,773 | $36,920 | $40,654 | Significant increase | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $38,002 | $39,821 | $41,600 | Moderate decline | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $35,893 | $40,487 | $42,224 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $87,500 | $87,500 | $87,500 | Stable | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $87,292 | $112,429 | $122,166 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $111,358 | $130,693 | $142,693 | Significant increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer * | $99,175 | $143,712 | $159,248 | Stable | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $52,220 | $57,500 | $64,937 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $63,814 | $78,983 | $79,021 | Moderate increase | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $57,200 | $67,797 | $75,169 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist * | $43,369 | $57,507 | $70,608 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $59,421 | $96,406 | $108,811 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $32,760 | $50,337 | $56,012 | Moderate decline | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $62,259 | $84,977 | $95,681 | Stable | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $52,815 | $65,501 | $70,938 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst * | $81,328 | $96,469 | $109,028 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $62,500 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $84,403 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $39,520 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $41,172 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $52,293 | Significant decline | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $58,240 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $73,672 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $100,000 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $34,320 | Stable | Significant increase |
| Government | $61,873 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
Local market conditions
Cascade County's unemployment rate stood at 3.0% in July, firmly below the national 4.1%, even as Montana as a whole shed 5,300 jobs over the past year and statewide labor-force participation slipped to 62.6% from 63.1% a year ago. Great Falls employment remains anchored by government (5.3% of local jobs), Malmstrom Air Force Base, healthcare, and retail, with county-level average weekly wages of $1,126 running above the Montana average of $1,229 statewide but still trailing national wage growth benchmarks.
What it means
Local economic momentum reads as stable — low joblessness coexists with Montana's first annual statewide job decline since 2020, suggesting Great Falls is best characterized as holding steady. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment decisions should treat wage gains in electrician ($79,040, up significantly) and registered nurse ($112,429, up significantly) job ads — a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings — as evidence of targeted sector tightness. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether healthcare and skilled trades momentum extends into other sectors before drawing conclusions about the metro's overall investment climate.
Looking ahead
Expected: Montana's October labor market data releases November 20, which will show whether Cascade County's summer unemployment uptick (2.9% to 3.4%) was seasonal noise or the start of a softer trend heading into winter.
Emerging pressure point: Cascade County Sheriff's Office staffing shortages reflect a national pattern in detention and public-safety roles; watch whether other local public-sector employers report similar strain as a signal of broader public-service capacity constraints.
Worth watching: Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, from $10.85 — a modest statutory increase that will mechanically lift the pay floor for retail and food-service roles already showing upward local movement (cashier, food service worker).
Potential inflection point: Statewide labor-force participation has declined for a full year alongside flat employment since mid-2024. If Great Falls mirrors this pattern, commerce leaders evaluating local market capacity should watch participation data together with the unemployment rate.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Cascade County unemployment rate was 3.0% in July 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Montana statewide labor-force participation fell to 62.6%
- Missoula Current / MATR — Montana lost 5,300 jobs over the past year, first annual decline since 2020
- Montana Right Now — Cascade County Sheriff's Office staffing shortage after four resignations
- Montana Department of Labor and Industry — Montana minimum wage rises to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Cascade County average weekly wage of $1,126 in Q1 2026
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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