Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: MT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — September 2026
Rural Montana holds 3.2% jobless rate as rest of U.S. stalls
Statewide unemployment sits at 3.2% against a national 4.2%, but only four urban Montana counties added jobs in 2025, underscoring a widening urban-rural split that nonmetro commerce leaders should not mistake for broad-based strength.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Montana unemployment rate: 3.2% — vs 4.2% U.S. national rate
- Nonmetro county unemployment range: 1.4% to 10.1% — Prairie County vs Crow Reservation
- Montana wage growth, 2025: 5.4% — No. 1 nationally; vs 3.4% U.S. average
- Statewide employment change, 2025: -0.3% — First annual decline since 2020
Key takeaways
Low unemployment in rural counties masks shrinking employment.
Prairie County's 1.4% jobless rate — among the lowest in the state — coincided with a 201-job year-over-year decline, meaning the low rate partly reflects people leaving the labor force or county, not job creation. Reading county unemployment rates alone risks overstating underlying economic strength in rural areas.
Tribal-area unemployment gaps remain the starkest divide in the state.
Crow Reservation (10.1%) and Rocky Boy's (9.5%) run roughly three times the statewide rate of 3.2%, a persistent structural gap rather than a monthly fluctuation. This disparity is relevant to any economic development or workforce-participation initiative framed around statewide averages, which obscure it entirely.
Healthcare is the one sector still adding jobs almost everywhere.
Montana hospital employment rose more than 900 jobs in 2025 — the largest increase since 2016 — even as mining fell nearly 13% and manufacturing declined 2.8%. For nonmetro counties, healthcare facilities appear to be the most reliable source of sustained local payroll activity amid broader sector softness.
Wage growth is real, but housing and inflation are absorbing it.
Montana's 5.4% wage growth led the nation in 2025, yet the May 2026 inflation-adjusted average weekly wage was down 2.6% year-over-year. For nonmetro business climate assessments, headline wage gains should be weighed against local cost pressures before being read as a sign of rising real purchasing power.
Median advertised pay by role — MT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $29,120 | $35,360 | $38,673 | Moderate increase | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,546 | $32,675 | $36,227 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $33,140 | $40,232 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $58,240 | $80,265 | $91,503 | Significant increase | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $28,855 | $32,682 | $37,500 | Moderate decline | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $36,393 | $45,760 | $49,920 | Significant increase | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $57,105 | $70,163 | $77,467 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $32,070 | $37,638 | $41,600 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,359 | $38,925 | $42,573 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $30,648 | $34,377 | $36,982 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $39,208 | $49,583 | $54,723 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $30,375 | $39,520 | $44,814 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $72,800 | $87,500 | $87,500 | Moderate increase | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $85,679 | $107,901 | $116,636 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $119,329 | $154,423 | $172,718 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $99,201 | $145,000 | $159,248 | Significant increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $58,321 | $70,800 | $79,301 | Significant increase | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,964 | $95,000 | $102,804 | Moderate increase | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $52,916 | $82,355 | $87,277 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $43,369 | $58,052 | $70,334 | Stable | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager * | $73,679 | $96,224 | $101,982 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $46,800 | $60,183 | $63,720 | Moderate increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $62,500 | $95,749 | $117,463 | Significant increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $45,691 | $48,405 | $49,568 | Significant decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $82,624 | $97,500 | $110,226 | Moderate increase | $98,279 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $66,549 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $109,600 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $53,494 | Significant increase | Moderate decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $51,392 | Moderate decline | Significant increase |
| Information | $130,509 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $109,282 | Significant increase | Moderate increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $88,674 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Education & Health Services | $77,500 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,440 | Stable | Moderate decline |
| Government | $67,638 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nonmetropolitan Montana counties diverge sharply this month: Prairie County holds unemployment near 1.4% even as employment there fell 201 jobs year-over-year, while tribal-area counties like Crow Reservation (10.1%) and Rocky Boy's (9.5%) continue to post rates several multiples above the state average. Statewide, employment edged down 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force hit a record high, a combination consistent with Montana's broader 'no-hire, no-fire' pattern of flat net job creation rather than active expansion in rural counties outside the four growing urban centers (Flathead, Gallatin, Yellowstone, Silver Bow).
What it means
Flat net job creation alongside a record labor force suggests nonmetro Montana's tight unemployment rate reflects limited labor supply and demographic constraint more than robust local demand — a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders read 'low unemployment' as a growth signal. Combined with mining losses (Sibanye-Stillwater closure, -13% sector employment) and softer hospitality activity tied to reduced Glacier National Park visitation, the data points to a rural economy holding steady rather than accelerating. Current conditions suggest local economic development bodies should weight county-level employment trends, not just the unemployment rate, when assessing whether a given nonmetro county is positioned for business investment or expansion.
Looking ahead
Worth watching: Whether Flathead and Gallatin counties — the fastest-growing nonmetro-adjacent counties in 2025 — sustain job growth through year-end, or whether softer Glacier visitation (-2.3%) further dents northwest Montana hospitality employment into the fall.
Emerging pressure point: Mining employment losses tied to the Sibanye-Stillwater closure may continue to ripple through southern Montana county labor markets; watch for any additional WARN filings in the mining or materials sector beyond the 4 notices filed statewide through September.
Early indicator: Healthcare hiring has been the one consistent bright spot; a slowdown in hospital or social-assistance job postings would be an early sign the sector's growth cushion for rural counties is narrowing.
Potential inflection point: 58,000 Montanans — 6% of the labor force — remain sidelined by childcare gaps or underemployment statewide; any shift in that figure, particularly in nonmetro counties with limited childcare infrastructure, would directly affect labor force participation data used to assess local economic capacity.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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