Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: MT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA — October 2026
Montana's nonmetro jobs shrink even as unemployment stays near historic lows.
Nonmetro Montana counties lost 1.5% of jobs in 2025 while statewide unemployment held at 3.1%, and labor-force participation slipped to 62.6% from 63.1% a year earlier.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Nonmetro job change, 2025: -1.5% — Rest-of-state counties outside 4 urban areas
- Montana unemployment rate: 3.1% — Sept. 2026, vs. 4.2% national rate
- Labor-force participation: 62.6% — Down from 63.1% a year earlier
- Montana wage growth, 2025: 5.4% — vs. 3.4% national average, ranked #1 among states
Key takeaways
Nonmetro job losses coexist with sub-4% unemployment.
Rest-of-state counties outside Montana's four urban areas lost 1.5% of jobs in 2025 even as the statewide rate fell to 3.1%. That combination is consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than finding new jobs locally, a distinction that matters more to workforce capacity than the headline rate alone.
Healthcare and tech carry momentum; manufacturing and tourism cool.
Healthcare employment grew 5.4% and information/technology jobs grew 28% statewide in 2025, while manufacturing contracted 2.8% and September payroll losses concentrated in accommodation, food service, and finance. Commerce leaders assessing local business climate should weight sector mix over the single aggregate rate.
Wage leadership hasn't translated into hiring.
Montana's 5.4% wage growth led all states in 2025, nearly double the 3.4% national figure, yet nonmetro employment contracted over the same period. Pay strength appears to reflect scarcity of specific skills rather than broad-based business expansion.
Participation decline is the quieter story behind the low jobless rate.
Labor-force participation slipped to 62.6% in October from 63.1% a year earlier, even as unemployment stayed low. A shrinking labor pool can mask economic softness behind an encouraging headline number, a distinction policy economists will want to track separately from the unemployment rate.
Median advertised pay by role — MT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $29,062 | $35,360 | $39,520 | Moderate increase | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $27,325 | $32,803 | $35,787 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $34,015 | $40,560 | $42,641 | Moderate increase | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $62,474 | $82,175 | $94,200 | Significant increase | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $28,695 | $32,977 | $39,000 | Moderate decline | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $36,400 | $46,800 | $51,532 | Significant increase | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $57,953 | $72,472 | $79,040 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $32,428 | $39,150 | $42,640 | Moderate increase | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $34,359 | $38,925 | $42,492 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $31,865 | $37,034 | $37,069 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $39,520 | $48,100 | $54,080 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $31,922 | $40,430 | $46,008 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $70,096 | $87,500 | $87,500 | Moderate increase | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $86,220 | $107,674 | $116,774 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $120,369 | $156,000 | $174,194 | Stable | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $99,184 | $144,140 | $159,248 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $57,190 | $69,220 | $77,000 | Moderate increase | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $72,392 | $93,966 | $102,750 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $52,000 | $81,300 | $86,394 | Significant increase | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $43,368 | $57,521 | $70,334 | Stable | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager * | $59,421 | $96,406 | $108,811 | Significant increase | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $45,798 | $59,032 | $63,436 | Stable | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $63,500 | $98,000 | $120,000 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager * | $52,815 | $65,501 | $70,938 | Significant increase | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $82,015 | $96,929 | $109,655 | Stable | $98,302 |
* State-level figure shown where metro postings were too few.
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $65,520 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Manufacturing | $113,946 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Retail Trade | $48,880 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $50,124 | Significant decline | Moderate increase |
| Information | $133,216 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Financial Activities | $101,465 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Professional & Business Services | $93,145 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $82,644 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $37,440 | Stable | Significant decline |
| Government | $64,173 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Montana's nonmetro counties recorded a 1.5% job loss in 2025 even as statewide unemployment held at 3.1% in September, a divergence consistent with an economy where available workers are not being matched to open roles rather than one short on labor. Healthcare and information/technology employment grew sharply (5.4% and 28%, respectively) while manufacturing contracted 2.8% and payrolls statewide fell by 1,300 in September concentrated in accommodation, food service, and finance, pointing to a sector-specific cooling rather than a broad downturn.
What it means
Flat-to-declining nonmetro employment alongside low unemployment suggests local labor availability is tightening even without job growth, a signal relevant to commerce leaders weighing expansion timing and to economic development officials tracking workforce capacity. Wage momentum (Montana's 5.4% growth led the nation in 2025) has not translated into job creation, implying local business confidence — not labor cost — is the binding constraint on activity. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders evaluate whether housing costs and labor-force participation declines, rather than wage levels, are the more immediate barrier to attracting workers into the nonmetro labor pool.
Looking ahead
Expected data release: BLS metro-level employment data for October will not publish until December 2, leaving a reporting gap; watch Montana's November 20 state release for the next confirmed read on nonmetro job counts.
Emerging pressure point: Housing costs continue to erode real purchasing power from Montana's above-average wage gains. Commerce leaders should watch whether consumer spending in nonmetro retail and food service softens further as a result.
Early indicator: County-level unemployment spread is wide — Big Horn at 6.2% versus Carter at 1.4% in August — suggesting uneven conditions beneath the statewide average. Local economic development bodies should track whether this gap narrows or widens heading into winter.
Potential inflection point: Manufacturing's 2.8% statewide contraction in 2025 follows a pandemic-era snapback; whether this represents a correction or a structural decline will shape investment conversations in nonmetro counties with manufacturing bases.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Nonmetro Montana counties lost 1.5% of jobs in 2025
- Missoula Current / Daily Montanan — Healthcare grew 5.4%, info/tech grew 28%, manufacturing lost 2.8% in 2025
- Montana Governor's Office — Montana unemployment fell to 3.1% in September 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) — Montana wage growth led nation at 5.4% in 2025 vs 3.4% national
- USA Facts / BLS — Big Horn County unemployment 6.2%, Carter County 1.4% in August
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — Labor-force participation declined to 62.6% from 63.1% year-over-year
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
Free to read and cite with attribution to WageScape. Terms of use.