Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · September 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA — September 2026
Nashville keeps outrunning the state it's in.
Nashville's unemployment held near 3.1% with 28,000 jobs added over the year and 6.6% wage growth in Davidson County, even as Tennessee's statewide job growth projection slows to just 0.9% for 2026.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of September 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 3.1% — Up from 3.0% in July, still below 4.2% national
- 12-month metro job growth: 28,000+ jobs — Vs. statewide 2026 projection of just 31,400 jobs
- Davidson County wage growth: 6.6% YoY — Highest among major TN counties, vs. 3.0% national
- Skilled-trades scarcity index: 76/100 — Tight; wage growth 7-9% YoY in constrained trades
Key takeaways
Nashville is decoupling from Tennessee's statewide slowdown.
Statewide job growth has cooled to roughly 0.9% projected for 2026, yet Nashville added over 28,000 jobs in the past year and continues to outpace Memphis and other Tennessee metros. That divergence strengthens the metro's relative investment case even as state-level headlines turn cautious.
Skilled-trades scarcity is now a visible constraint on local capacity.
Tennessee's trades scarcity index sits at a tight 76/100 with wage pressure running 7-9% annually in constrained trades, a signal that construction and infrastructure timelines locally may face real friction. Electrician pay is up significantly in the metro, consistent with sustained demand outstripping available capacity rather than a temporary spike.
A scheduled TikTok office closure is a small, isolated event, not a trend.
The Oct. 5 closure affecting roughly 250 Davidson County workers appears driven by company-specific restructuring rather than any broader Nashville tech retrenchment, given the metro's continued hiring momentum elsewhere. Watch whether displaced talent is absorbed quickly, which would itself be a useful read on local labor market depth.
Local wage-inflation dynamics look healthier than the national picture.
Davidson County posted the strongest wage growth among major Tennessee counties at 6.6% year over year, well above the 3.0% national wage growth figure that is now trailing inflation. That gap matters for reading local consumer purchasing power and retail/hospitality spending resilience even as national commentary turns more cautious.
Median advertised pay by role — Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $26,513 | $31,536 | $35,360 | Stable | $33,325 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,000 | $30,160 | $32,906 | Stable | $31,200 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $32,557 | $37,960 | $40,040 | Stable | $38,000 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $54,199 | $75,400 | $85,500 | Stable | $78,000 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,200 | $35,000 | $40,165 | Stable | $34,344 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,360 | $40,504 | $45,000 | Stable | $40,560 |
| Electrician | $60,320 | $68,931 | $72,754 | Significant increase | $71,404 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,280 | $38,052 | $40,950 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,819 | $39,518 | $43,491 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $30,327 | $34,045 | $37,440 | Moderate decline | $33,756 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,848 | $37,440 | $42,185 | Moderate increase | $41,106 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $34,025 | $43,680 | $48,880 | Stable | $43,680 |
| HVAC Technician | $62,644 | $67,712 | $72,764 | Moderate decline | $70,720 |
| Registered Nurse | $79,732 | $94,718 | $103,802 | Significant increase | $102,581 |
| Software Engineer | $123,243 | $151,000 | $170,487 | Stable | $153,652 |
| Data Engineer | $97,428 | $140,521 | $153,392 | Significant increase | $139,500 |
| Accountant | $60,000 | $70,000 | $79,028 | Stable | $72,182 |
| Financial Analyst | $71,595 | $89,418 | $97,361 | Stable | $94,782 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $54,810 | $63,070 | $70,606 | Moderate increase | $75,000 |
| Marketing Specialist | $49,355 | $65,947 | $72,921 | Moderate increase | $62,354 |
| Operations Manager | $58,776 | $87,538 | $87,538 | Significant increase | $85,216 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $37,960 | $52,880 | $59,000 | Significant increase | $56,731 |
| Account Manager | $60,980 | $90,000 | $107,232 | Moderate increase | $92,749 |
| Warehouse Manager | $56,527 | $74,528 | $84,118 | Moderate decline | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $78,231 | $96,897 | $106,400 | Stable | $98,279 |
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $64,480 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Manufacturing | $85,046 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Retail Trade | $39,280 | Moderate increase | Significant increase |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $54,972 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Information | $137,761 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $71,737 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Professional & Business Services | $88,400 | Moderate increase | Moderate decline |
| Education & Health Services | $68,640 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $36,335 | Stable | Moderate increase |
| Government | $67,029 | Significant increase | Stable |
Local market conditions
Nashville's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.1% in August from 3.0% in July, still far below the national 4.2%, as the metro's 28,000-job annual gain reflects continued momentum in healthcare, hospitality and tech expansion anchored by projects like Oracle's $1.2 billion campus. Skilled-trades scarcity remains acute — the WIL Institute Observatory index reads 76/100 for Tennessee — even as statewide job growth decelerates sharply from its historical 60,000-per-year pace to a projected 31,400 for 2026.
What it means
Nashville's continued outperformance of both state and national job growth figures signals the metro retains real expansion capacity even as Tennessee overall cools, a distinction worth sharpening in any regional economic messaging to site-selection consultants or relocating employers. Acute skilled-trades scarcity alongside stable unemployment suggests the binding constraint on local commercial activity is increasingly labor supply in construction and trades rather than demand — a dynamic that matters directly for permitting timelines, infrastructure projects and commercial build-out schedules. Commerce leaders should consider whether workforce-pipeline investments in trades training track with the metro's construction and manufacturing growth trajectory, not just its tech headlines.
Looking ahead
Expected: TikTok's Nashville office closure takes effect Oct. 5, affecting roughly 250 workers. The more informative data point will be how quickly that talent is reabsorbed locally, a read on depth of metro tech/professional-services demand.
Emerging pressure point: Skilled-trades scarcity (76/100 on the regional observatory index) shows no sign of easing, with wage growth of 7-9% in constrained trades. Construction timelines tied to the metro's continued growth narrative are worth watching for slippage tied to crew-formation limits.
Potential inflection point: National nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to the prior two months, well below Nashville's own trajectory. Watch whether that national cooling begins to show up in metro-level job postings data over the next reporting cycle, or whether Nashville continues to diverge.
Worth watching: Tennessee WARN filings have reached nearly 6,000 affected workers statewide this year, concentrated in manufacturing and transportation/logistics. Limited Nashville-specific WARN activity to date is a positive signal, but statewide manufacturing softness bears monitoring given the metro's own manufacturing base of roughly 88,800 workers.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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