Metro Job Market Pulse · General Market Conditions · October 2026
General Market Conditions Labor Market Report: Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA — October 2026
Nashville's growth narrows to fewer sectors, logistics labor tightens.
Metro unemployment held near 3.1% in August, well under the 4.2% national rate, but warehouse labor supply and below-average wages ($31.92 metro mean vs. $33.54 national) point to a tighter, narrower growth story.
Free archive edition. Published by WageScape as sent to subscribers; data as of October 2026.
Key indicators
- Metro unemployment rate: 3.1% — vs 4.2% national rate, August 2026
- Nonfarm job growth (12-mo): 28,400 jobs — Concentrated in hospitality, healthcare, govt
- Metro mean hourly wage: $31.92 — vs $33.54 U.S. average
- Warehouse workforce growth: 13% by 2034 — 54,200 current workers; demand outpacing supply
Key takeaways
Nashville's job growth is real but increasingly concentrated.
Leisure/hospitality, healthcare, and state government drove most of the 28,400 jobs added over the past year, while manufacturing posted only 0.6% growth and construction showed roughly flat activity statewide. A metro growing on fewer sectoral legs carries more exposure if any one of those three segments slows.
Warehouse labor supply is the metro's clearest capacity constraint.
The regional warehouse workforce of roughly 54,200 is projected to grow 13% through 2034, yet facilities are reportedly arriving faster than the labor pool is expanding. Planned 2027 air cargo expansion at Nashville International Airport will test whether that gap widens further.
Local wages still trail the nation despite a tight labor market.
Tennessee's $25.79 average hourly wage in September remains well below the $30.19 national figure, and Nashville's metro-wide mean hourly wage of $31.92 sits under the $33.54 U.S. average. Low unemployment paired with below-average pay is consistent with a labor market that is tight on availability but not yet translating that tightness into outsized wage pressure.
Registered nurse pay signals where cost pressure is concentrating.
Metro RN advertised pay rose significantly to $94,481, tracking a national pattern of sharp healthcare wage gains tied to persistent demand. For public-sector and healthcare-adjacent budget planning, this is one of the clearest early markers of where cost growth is landing fastest.
Median advertised pay by role — Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA
| Role | 25th percentile | Median advertised pay | 75th percentile | Metro trend | National median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Associate | $26,342 | $31,848 | $35,526 | Stable | $33,340 |
| Retail Cashier | $26,000 | $30,160 | $33,176 | Stable | $31,268 |
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate | $32,912 | $38,002 | $41,600 | Stable | $38,480 |
| CDL Truck Driver | $55,120 | $75,588 | $85,800 | Stable | $78,872 |
| Delivery Driver | $31,200 | $36,441 | $44,200 | Moderate increase | $34,826 |
| Construction Laborer | $35,263 | $40,420 | $45,000 | Stable | $40,727 |
| Electrician | $61,070 | $69,971 | $72,800 | Moderate increase | $71,835 |
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler | $33,577 | $38,480 | $41,371 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Customer Service Representative | $33,819 | $39,088 | $42,640 | Stable | $39,520 |
| Food Service Worker | $30,151 | $34,320 | $37,440 | Stable | $33,764 |
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide | $32,853 | $37,440 | $42,185 | Stable | $41,600 |
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk | $34,320 | $44,385 | $48,984 | Moderate increase | $44,552 |
| HVAC Technician | $63,338 | $67,500 | $69,228 | Moderate decline | $71,406 |
| Registered Nurse | $80,127 | $94,481 | $102,794 | Significant increase | $102,252 |
| Software Engineer | $123,575 | $153,550 | $172,447 | Moderate increase | $154,403 |
| Data Engineer | $99,856 | $140,783 | $153,392 | Moderate increase | $138,000 |
| Accountant | $60,044 | $70,000 | $78,784 | Stable | $72,000 |
| Financial Analyst | $70,950 | $90,000 | $98,846 | Stable | $94,646 |
| HR Generalist/Manager | $54,689 | $62,123 | $70,000 | Stable | $74,477 |
| Marketing Specialist | $52,760 | $67,480 | $73,587 | Moderate increase | $62,916 |
| Operations Manager | $58,534 | $73,292 | $86,170 | Moderate decline | $86,294 |
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher | $37,594 | $52,880 | $58,908 | Moderate increase | $55,908 |
| Account Manager | $62,179 | $92,000 | $109,538 | Significant increase | $94,009 |
| Warehouse Manager | $55,553 | $74,641 | $84,118 | Stable | $75,000 |
| Business Analyst | $77,615 | $95,431 | $106,400 | Moderate decline | $98,302 |
WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings (reported as the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay). Download: CSV · JSON
Industry snapshot
| Sector | Median advertised pay | Pay trend | Postings trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | $65,520 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Manufacturing | $85,255 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Retail Trade | $39,520 | Moderate increase | Stable |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | $57,708 | Significant increase | Moderate decline |
| Information | $139,212 | Significant increase | Significant increase |
| Financial Activities | $71,650 | Significant increase | Stable |
| Professional & Business Services | $87,500 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
| Education & Health Services | $71,595 | Significant increase | Significant decline |
| Leisure & Hospitality | $36,379 | Stable | Moderate decline |
| Government | $65,505 | Moderate increase | Significant decline |
Local market conditions
Nashville metro unemployment sat at 3.1% in August, up slightly from 3.0% in July but still roughly 100 basis points below the 4.2% national rate, reflecting continued relative tightness even as the pace of local job growth moderates. Gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality, healthcare and social assistance, and state government over the past year, while manufacturing employment rose only 0.6% and the region's warehouse sector reports labor availability constraints outpacing the growth of the local workforce.
What it means
Metro labor conditions point to a local economy still expanding but doing so more narrowly, with healthcare, government, and logistics carrying momentum while manufacturing and construction show little slack to absorb new investment quickly. For commerce leaders evaluating expansion or site-location timing, the warehouse sector's reported worker shortfall alongside planned 2027 air cargo capacity growth at Nashville International Airport suggests logistics-dependent investment may face real near-term labor supply friction even though headline unemployment looks favorable. Current conditions suggest economic development teams and chambers should track sector-specific labor supply alongside the metro unemployment rate when courting or advising prospective employers.
Looking ahead
Early indicator: Watch whether the air cargo expansion at Nashville International Airport scheduled for 2027 begins drawing logistics-sector job ads (a signal of hiring demand; one ad often covers several openings) in the next two quarters, a signal of whether warehouse labor constraints are easing or tightening further.
Worth watching: September's metro unemployment uptick to 3.1% from 3.0% in July is small but worth confirming against the next two monthly BLS releases to determine whether it marks a trend or statistical noise.
Emerging pressure point: Manufacturing employment grew just 0.6% locally against a statewide 1.7% annual decline reported by TDLWD; any additional WARN filings in Tennessee manufacturing over the next 60 days would sharpen that divergence.
Potential inflection point: Federal immigration enforcement activity and tariff policy continue to shape national labor force growth and input costs; metro economic development and commerce groups should monitor official federal and state releases directly for any local impact.
Methodology
Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay. WageScape observes 98% of U.S. job openings daily.
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